WTPA45 PHFO 150914
TCDCP5
TROPICAL STORM ANA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI CP022014
1100 PM HST TUE OCT 14 2014
ANA REMAINS A STRONG TROPICAL STORM THIS EVENING. RECENT MICROWAVE
IMAGERY FROM THE 0507Z SSMIS AND A 0643Z AMSU PLATFORMS AVAILABLE
ON THE FNMOC/NRL WEB SITES INDICATE THE LLCC MAY BE NEAR THE
NORTHEASTERN EDGE OF THE PERSISTENT COLD CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.
THIS SEEMS REASONABLE BASED ON ENVIRONMENTAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ESTIMATES OF 6 TO 10 KT FROM THE NORTHEAST ACCORDING TO THE
LATEST CIMSS AND SHIPS ANALYSES. THE MOST RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FOR ANA ARE 3.5/55 KT FROM PHFO AND JTWC...WHILE
THE SAB ESTIMATE IS 4.0/65 KT. DUE TO THE PERSISTENCE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION AND INTENSE LIGHTNING OBSERVED NEAR THE INNER CORE OF
ANA...THE INTENSITY IS BEING NUDGED UP TO 60 KT TOWARD THE SAB
ESTIMATE AS A COMPROMISE.
STRONG TROPICAL STORM ANA IS CURRENTLY MOVING TOWARD THE WEST...OR
275 DEGREES...AT 8 KT. ANA CONTINUES TO BE STEERED ALONG THIS COURSE
BY A BUILDING DEEP LAYER RIDGE LOCATED TO ITS NORTH. THE CURRENT
TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE WITH A MINOR SHIFT TO
THE LEFT DURING THE NEXT 24 AND 48 HOURS. THE RIDGE WILL SHIFT
SOUTHEASTWARD FRIDAY...WHICH WILL BEGIN TO STEER ANA TOWARD THE
NORTHWEST. DESPITE THE FACT THERE IS STILL SIGNIFICANT VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR OF NEAR 50 KT BETWEEN ANA AND THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS...THE
FORECAST MODELS DO NOT CURRENTLY SHOW THAT ANA WILL BE IMPACTED BY
THESE HOSTILE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
INSTEAD...ANA WILL BE IN MINIMAL WIND SHEAR CONDITIONS SOUTH OF THE
RIDGE DURING THE NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS. BY THIS WEEKEND...A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH PASSING BY TO THE NORTH OF ANA IS EXPECTED TO
WEAKEN THE STEERING CURRENTS. THERE IS STILL A GREAT DEAL OF
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE IMPACT THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL HAVE ON ANA.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...WITH ANA
POTENTIALLY BECOMING A HURRICANE ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO THE RELATIVELY
LIGHT VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM SSTS ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS CLOSE TO THE ICON CONSENSUS
GUIDANCE. IN ADDITION...THE CIRA OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ANALYSES ALONG
THE PROJECTED TRACK SHOW THE VALUE WILL RAMP UP DURING THE 48 TO 72
HOUR PERIOD...SO THERE SHOULD BE PLENTY OF OCEAN WARMTH AVAILABLE
TO THE SYSTEM AS ITS WINDS ARE INCREASING. THE PEAK INTENSITY IS
EXPECTED THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. A GRADUAL WEAKENING TREND IS FORECAST
THIS WEEKEND AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR STARTS TO INCREASE ACCORDING TO
THE FORECAST GUIDANCE. ALSO...THERE MAY BE SOME INTERRUPTION OF THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IF IT INTERACTS WITH ANY OF THE MAIN HAWAIIAN
ISLANDS.
INTERESTS IN THE MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR
THE FUTURE PROGRESS OF ANA. A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
PORTIONS OF THE ISLAND CHAIN ON WEDNESDAY.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 15/0900Z 14.1N 146.1W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 15/1800Z 14.3N 147.4W 65 KT 75 MPH
24H 16/0600Z 14.6N 148.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 16/1800Z 15.1N 150.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 17/0600Z 15.6N 152.1W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 18/0600Z 17.9N 155.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 19/0600Z 19.9N 157.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 20/0600Z 21.6N 158.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON
Basically they have no idea on what to expect...
Hopefully they start drawing there attention towards Hawaii real soon!
