Texas Fall-2014

[ravyrn]

I'm house sitting this week on east side of Lake Lewisville just west of Stonebrook & 423. We had some lightning and wind tonight, but nothing to really blow your mind. Though it was quite windy all afternoon and evening. It looks like the line of storms really got its act together as they crossed US69/US79 around Jacksonville and off on US84 between Palestine and Rusk. My mom had to drive to work in that line of storms, from Maydelle to Rusk, and they intensified right around 6:30am just when she'd be heading to the unit in Rusk, so gonna see if I can't hear back from her to see how bad it was.

The last storms that went through ETX a week or so back knocked a few trees over the road out in the country and I actually had to take a separate route to pick my dog up from her. I think it was the storms from Oct 2 for that episode.

[weatherdude1108]

A little lightning up to our northwest with the front/squall line moving in. I left for work earlier to beat it. I did. Looks like it won't last long. Will be lucky to get 0.10 out of this round. But I got my 1.9 inches this weekend, with no severe weather. So I'm happy. I'll post the grande total later.

[weatherdude1108]

Pouring rain and windy here at work in north Austin.

[texas1836]

In McKinney woke up with 63' now 61' with 1.58 inches rain over night. It was loud last night, and the rain heavy on the windows. It was a good night!!

[texas1836]

asd123 asked a good question: `

"How long does it take for the weather in the South (Texas and Florida) to reflect the teleconnections?".

Does it depend on how strong it is? Hopefully one of the other mets can help answer.

[TheProfessor]

got 1.6 inches of rain here this morning, not bad.

[Portastorm]

How long does it take for the weather in the South (Texas and Florida) to reflect the teleconnections? I never got an answer despite asking the question numerous times.

I'll try to answer this as best as my amateur mind can handle. The answer to this question is not an easy one. It totally depends on the type of teleconnection one is looking at. Sometimes the impact can be a matter of weeks, sometimes months. And, these teleconnections as tracked by their indices don't just change on a dime. They transition and evolve ... so consequently the impact on the weather tends to be more blended and less a matter of flicking a switch.

In the case of ENSO, what we have seen is an atmosphere generally moving towards a weak El Nino pattern and this has been happening since late summer. But the effects are minor to date and it's been more a matter of subtlety, to be honest.

Your question was posed when there was a lot of chatter about the Arctic Oscillation tanking. The impact of the AO going strongly negative is more pronounced in the winter months ... but when you see indices for the AO going south quickly and staying that way for a matter of days ... you can figure that probably within 2-3 weeks you'll see an impact on Texas weather.

[Ntxw]

Good evidence from the recent AO tank out there. Deep cyclogenesis causing wind gradient. Brisk and a little chilly. A few months later and this would equal a significant winter storm.

[Tireman4]

65 and amazing in Humble!!!

[South Texas Storms]

The cold front has moved through much of Texas with breezy, cooler, and drier conditions now across the region. The rest of this week should be pleasant, but rain chances may return this weekend. Here is a map showing rainfall totals across the area during the past 24 hours.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Not seeing much excitement for the next couple weeks. What was all that chatter from Bastardi and Maue saying October was looking very cold?

Maue did release a snow depth map 120 hours out on twitter showing that Siberia is already covered in snow. According to the journal recently posted, this is a good sign.

[weatherdude1108]

Grande total of 2.14 inches since Saturday at the abode. Enjoying that, and the nice, COOL weather.

[gboudx]

I got 1.5" from last nights rain. Weekend total was about 2".

[dhweather]

Checking in late, I got 1.3" of very welcomed liquid gold.

[somethingfunny]

I had 1.75" Sunday along with .8" Friday night. Adding that to the .75" from our "derecho" in October 2 and the 3.5" that seemingly dumped on just my neighborhood last Monday morning, and I'm sitting high and happy at 6.8" for October here in south Garland - and ready to enjoy the perfect weather coming up this week.

I'm glad you got in on the action this time, dhweather.

[aggiecutter]

This happened about 20 miles NW of Texarkana on Monday morning:

http://www.weather.com/video/tornado-af ... dead-54524

[weatherdude1108]

Outside with the dog. 59 degrees. Blowing steam!

[weatherdude1108]

This little blurb just reinforces the multi-year rainfall event frequency trend I've mentioned numerous times in previous posts. Ugh!

Let's hope November will be the game-changer and start of a more frequent multi-month liquid gold trend.

After all, I did wash and wax my car today. So it should rain tomorrow.

Today's long-range forecast data indicates next week's dry pattern may unfortunately continue through the end of the month.

http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

[Ntxw]

The large scale weather pattern across the globe will be changing the end of October into November. The JMA and other long range guidance which thus far has shown -AO dominating North America's weather regimes. So far true arctic air has not been in the pattern but rather from very low heights. Week 2 and 3 shows the GOA beginning to switch from lower pressures to higher pressures. That means ridging, and ridging in Alaska means -EPO tank is a possibility.

[Tireman4]

The large scale weather pattern across the globe will be changing the end of October into November. The JMA and other long range guidance which thus far has shown -AO dominating North America's weather regimes. So far true arctic air has not been in the pattern but rather from very low heights. Week 2 and 3 shows the GOA beginning to switch from lower pressures to higher pressures. That means ridging, and ridging in Alaska means -EPO tank is a possibility.

Here we go. Can I know quote Srain and say, stepping down? By the way, amazing morning. I did not start to sweat until the 20 minute mark on my hour bike ride. Woo Hoo. My run at 4 pm will be just stupendous.