Texas Winter 2014-2015

[South Texas Storms]

Is it starting to look like the EPO/WPO will be in support of a favorable AO/NAO to lock in arctic air over the US this winter? (is it too early to tell?)
I know the north-pacific warm pool is still going strong, but I haven't really noticed the EPO dominating like last year.

The EPO has been mostly negative for Oct so far but not tank, WPO very negative. The EPO hasnt yet flexed its muscles. Euro long range is showing increases heights over Alaska this winter so I think it will work out. Not sure if it will be quite like last year, that was one of the strongest continuous EPO block on record but it should be enough. The AO is the dominating index thus far

It will be much stormier than last year

Yeah the subtropical jet should be active across our region. With ample blocking as well, we could see a few big storms this winter.

[weatherdude1108]

Is it starting to look like the EPO/WPO will be in support of a favorable AO/NAO to lock in arctic air over the US this winter? (is it too early to tell?)
I know the north-pacific warm pool is still going strong, but I haven't really noticed the EPO dominating like last year.

The EPO has been mostly negative for Oct so far but not tank, WPO very negative. The EPO hasnt yet flexed its muscles. Euro long range is showing increases heights over Alaska this winter so I think it will work out. Not sure if it will be quite like last year, that was one of the strongest continuous EPO block on record but it should be enough. The AO is the dominating index thus far

It will be much stormier than last year

Yeah the subtropical jet should be active across our region. With ample blocking as well, we could see a few big storms this winter.

Good! We need more water. Last Fall-Winter was the driest (or one of the driest) Fall-Winter periods on record here.

[Ralph's Weather]

I was just describing forecasting on another forum and was reminded of the dreaded Ouachita Mountains, thankfully those pesky hills should have much less of an impact this winter with the deeper cold and the cold being centered over the Plains rather than the Great Lakes. Dang last year was frustrating to a snow lover with the cold but dry conditions. How did Toledo Bend of all places end up being the hot spot

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I was just describing forecasting on another forum and was reminded of the dreaded Ouachita Mountains, thankfully those pesky hills should have much less of an impact this winter with the deeper cold and the cold being centered over the Plains rather than the Great Lakes. Dang last year was frustrating to a snow lover with the cold but dry conditions. How did Toledo Bend of all places end up being the hot spot

I remember us talking about that last year and it was the first time i had heard of this phenom. Seeing it on the SPC map was fascinating. `

[Janie2006]

That warm pool over the northeast Pacific remains, so I don't see *why* we wouldn't get ridging in that area over the winter. This has been a long-term pattern now.

[Portastorm]

That warm pool over the northeast Pacific remains, so I don't see *why* we wouldn't get ridging in that area over the winter. This has been a long-term pattern now.

The only thing I see which could possibly impact that would be a blow-torch Nino jetstream which would overwhelm the pattern. That's not going to be happen based on the current and predicted ENSO values. Expect those bathwater warm NE Pacific ocean temps to help high pressure ridging off the CONUS west coast to help plunge polar/Arctic air south on occasion. If we do see Greenland blocks develop from time to time - something to which you alluded a month or two ago - then those cold spells will be less transient than what we saw last year.

[texas1836]

That would make for an exciting Winter, possibly one for the record books.

[texas1836]

Again, I’m learning here, so please cut me some slack……but, what happens if the -AAO is off the chart? Can it have some type of effect here or is it a different beast all together with no residual effect?

[gpsnowman]

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/cap ... al-winter/
Just found this article on the Siberian October snowfall correlation. Very interesting.

[Ntxw]

Again, I’m learning here, so please cut me some slack……but, what happens if the -AAO is off the chart? Can it have some type of effect here or is it a different beast all together with no residual effect?

The AAO I think is too far away and removed to have a direct influence on us, assuming you're talking about the Antarctic oscillation. Each hemisphere has it's own thing that it does and I haven't seen much correlation between them except for ENSO.

[gpsnowman]

Hey Portastorm, I forgot, when does the PWC release the winter outlook? I think you mentioned the 20th. As Carly Simon once said, "Anticipation." Don't think she was referring to the weather though.

[texas1836]

Again, I’m learning here, so please cut me some slack……but, what happens if the -AAO is off the chart? Can it have some type of effect here or is it a different beast all together with no residual effect?

The AAO I think is too far away and removed to have a direct influence on us, assuming you're talking about the Antarctic oscillation. Each hemisphere has it's own thing that it does and I haven't seen much correlation between them except for ENSO.

Thanks NTXW.....

[Portastorm]

Hey Portastorm, I forgot, when does the PWC release the winter outlook? I think you mentioned the 20th. As Carly Simon once said, "Anticipation." Don't think she was referring to the weather though.

The PWC announcement said October 20th. However, it may be delayed a few days due to some unforseen circumstances involving the PWC director.

But it's coming and I think you're going to like it.

[weatherdude1108]

California may not fair too well this Winter, but I like the odds for Texas!

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories201 ... tlook.html

[Tireman4]

Hey Portastorm, I forgot, when does the PWC release the winter outlook? I think you mentioned the 20th. As Carly Simon once said, "Anticipation." Don't think she was referring to the weather though.

The PWC announcement said October 20th. However, it may be delayed a few days due to some unforseen circumstances involving the PWC director.

But it's coming and I think you're going to like it.

Oh come on man. Looky here, I paid for the PWC announcement on October 19. I have crops in the field and Lucille left me. Man....this is what I paid for....? ( LOL)

[wxman57]

I'm thinking we'll have an early freeze here in Houston. That could be because I have Nov. 21st in the office first freeze contest, and no one has an earlier date. Come on, Arctic air!

Of course, I'm hoping that's the only freeze we see this winter...

[Tireman4]

I'm thinking we'll have an early freeze here in Houston. That could be because I have Nov. 21st in the office first freeze contest, and no one has an earlier date. Come on, Arctic air!

Of course, I'm hoping that's the only freeze we see this winter...

Umm sir, no... I think you will need two extra heavy duty propane heaters this Winter. It will be the mother of all mothers...

[TeamPlayersBlue]

NTX, i just saw you post on the previous page where you had maps of brutal weekends for us. Well done.

Some things i noticed, Dallas winter loves a situation thats similar to last year with a strong -EPO. I was also surprised how east based the core of the cold was too.

For SA and Houston It requires a bit more block centrally based in canada and you can see the lowere heights out west which indicates a southern branch. Maybe the northern branch and southern branch merging over texas and digging is best for us. Typically blocking is more towards Greenland which results in the digging of lows further east.

Also, i think for Houston, it would be good to add 1973 in that analog. I believe that year it snowed three separate times. Great post though!

[Ntxw]

Also, i think for Houston, it would be good to add 1973 in that analog. I believe that year it snowed three separate times. Great post though!

1972-1973 was a very unique case. The strange thing about this year was that it was a Super El Nino, yet the winter weather pattern at 5h actually resembles much more like a La Nina with west coast trough, Aleutian ridge, and eastern conus ridging. Very little blocking. It was the beginnings of a very -PDO regime with some super Ninas around it. I think the Nino was so strong against the background state of the Pacific it forced a strong jet across the southern and coastal US. Severe cold and prolonged cold wasn't the staple of this winter but storm frequency was.

[Ptarmigan]

Also, i think for Houston, it would be good to add 1973 in that analog. I believe that year it snowed three separate times. Great post though!

1972-1973 was a very unique case. The strange thing about this year was that it was a Super El Nino, yet the winter weather pattern at 5h actually resembles much more like a La Nina with west coast trough, Aleutian ridge, and eastern conus ridging. Very little blocking. It was the beginnings of a very -PDO regime with some super Ninas around it. I think the Nino was so strong against the background state of the Pacific it forced a strong jet across the southern and coastal US. Severe cold and prolonged cold wasn't the staple of this winter but storm frequency was.

http://i59.tinypic.com/2yvkryq.png

1972-1973 was a strong El Nino during cool PDO, which is unusual. After 1973, it was La Nina and strong ones in 1973-1974 and 1975-1976. 1976 to 1980 had cold winters.