ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ozonepete]

I believe a station in Saint Barthélemy measured a 127 mph wind gust, which was relayed in an MFR report. The same station reported a pressure of 984 mbar and 76 mph sustained.

We were discussing this earlier. They reported a gust of 204 km/hour but it's not confirmed. It's possible it was orographically enhanced but could also be just plain bogus. It will probably be quite a while before we will know for sure. Sounds too high to be reasonable though.

Yeah, that one gust seemed just a notch too high, but it seems likely there were at least 90 mph gusts given the persistence of those gust reports today alongside values ranging from 60-80 mph. A short YouTube clip was recently posted showing some of the conditions from Saint Barthelemey today, but at an unknown time.

Yeah I would agree that gusts in the 90s were occurring and probably still are. This is quite powerful and still intensifying.

[Gustywind]

who highest winds in leeward islands?

I believe a station in Saint Barthélemy measured a 127 mph wind gust, which was relayed in an MFR report. The same station reported a pressure of 984 mbar and 76 mph sustained.

We were discussing this earlier. They reported a gust of 204 km/hour but it's not confirmed. It's possible it was orographically enhanced but could also be just plain bogus. It will probably be quite a while before we will know for sure. Sounds too high to be reasonable though.

Why it is not confirmed?


Observed data:

At ST Barth:

At 12AM and 1PM, the wind was oriented to the East with gusts at 115 km/h.

At 2PM the gusts reached 122 km/h.

Between 4 and 5 PM, 204 km/h

[Alyono]

hot wire anamometer?

[Alyono]

I believe this is the first time hurricane conditions have been experienced for the Leeward Islands since Lenny in 1999. Omar narrowly missed in 2008

[weathernerdguy]

I believe this is the first time hurricane conditions have been experienced for the Leeward Islands since Lenny in 1999. Omar narrowly missed in 2008

Hurricane Tomas 2010, would of been a no then?

[SouthDadeFish]

I believe this is the first time hurricane conditions have been experienced for the Leeward Islands since Lenny in 1999. Omar narrowly missed in 2008

Hurricane Tomas 2010, would of been a no then?

I think he is referring to the northern Lesser Antilles. However, I think Debby in 2000 brought hurricane conditions, right?

http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/atlantic/2000/Hurricane-Debby

[Alyono]

I believe Debby brought high end TS winds. Highest gust I can recall from Debby is 78 mph. Thus, sustained winds likely remained below hurricane force

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I believe this is the first time hurricane conditions have been experienced for the Leeward Islands since Lenny in 1999. Omar narrowly missed in 2008

Hurricane Tomas 2010, would of been a no then?

EDIT: St. Lucia is not part of the northern Leeward Islands, but they reported sustained winds of 77kt (89 mph) during Tomas.

Table 3

[Jimsot]

How about Hurricane Earl??

we are on vacation in the US do NOT know status of our home on the sout east coast of Anguilla at Sandy Hill Bay. Our neighbors did close it up. No one expected THIS!

[Alyono]

Earl also did not bring sustained hurricane winds to the Leewards

[abajan]

Looks like Anguilla has had over 10 inches of rain from Gonzalo so far:
http://stormcarib.com/reports/current/anguilla.shtml

[ozonepete]

We were discussing this earlier. They reported a gust of 204 km/hour but it's not confirmed. It's possible it was orographically enhanced but could also be just plain bogus. It will probably be quite a while before we will know for sure. Sounds too high to be reasonable though.

Why it is not confirmed?


Observed data:

At ST Barth:

At 12AM and 1PM, the wind was oriented to the East with gusts at 115 km/h.

At 2PM the gusts reached 122 km/h.

Between 4 and 5 PM, 204 km/h

Because when the winds seem way too high given the pressure and other wind readings in the area (i.e. no other stations in the vicinity had any wind nearly that high) then it often turns out that the anemometer got damaged and gave a false reading. They have to go back and test the instrument for integrity.

[ozonepete]

Oh, and gusty, though I said it sounds too high to be reasonable, that's just my first take. Looking at how fast this has been intensifying, and storms that RI do strange things, I would also not be surprised if the reading is valid. I'm just really curious to find out. I'm also really curious what other readings come in overnight. Some more good reports from local readings should hopefully come in over the next couple of days. But there's no question this brought quite impressive hurricane conditions to the islands today.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Considering that Gonzalo was intensifying when recon departed, it's not unreasonable to suggest it will be near Category 2 intensity by the time recon begins investigating around midnight.

0014z microwave pass:

[tropicwatch]

Considering that Gonzalo was intensifying when recon departed, it's not unreasonable to suggest it will be near Category 2 intensity by the time recon begins investigating around midnight.

0014z microwave pass:

No mistaking the eye in that image.

[sunnyday]

Looks like Florida, a sitting duck out in the ocean, has dodged another bullet. Those folks down there must be living right. I'm sure they are grateful that Gonzalo is going elsewhere~
Prayers for those in the path of the storm tonight.

[TheAustinMan]

The eye is making its way into infrared imagery with the cloud tops of the eyewall clearly visible.

[ozonepete]

Looks like St. Martin weather station (TNCM) went down. No new reports since 2300 UTC (7PM EDT). Looks like that island took a beating.

[CrazyC83]

Based on the dropsonde data, I would go with 80 kt for the advisory intensity personally.

[msbee]

Looks like St. Martin weather station (TNCM) went down. No new reports since 2300 UTC (7PM EDT). Looks like that island took a beating.

Yes we did! it's been really bad!