ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[supercane4867]

[NDG]

Latest from recon is pressure down to 984 mb with peak flight level winds of 77 knots.

[galaxy401]

Along with the 67 SMFR winds this should be enough to upgrade to a hurricane.

[CrazyC83]

Now down to 982.

[Alyono]

yeah, this is probably a hurricane now

[NDG]

Now down to 982.

Remember that is extrap from H70 so the true surface pressure is more around 984mb.

[ozonepete]

From the satellite and radar this looks to be ramping up even more. Just in the last few hours the CDO has filled in really well, banding is really good and the outflow looks pretty ideal. It's probably doing more RI now, or should I say continuing the RI it's been doing.

[CrazyC83]

Based on the data, I would say 70 kt right now.

[ozonepete]

Based on the data, I would say 70 kt right now.

Yup. The eye should become visible within the next few hours.

[supercane4867]

000
URNT12 KNHC 132028
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL082014
A. 13/20:09:00Z
B. 17 deg 52 min N
062 deg 38 min W
C. 700 mb 2971 m
D. 73 kt
E. 013 deg 8 nm
F. 129 deg 77 kt
G. 027 deg 18 nm
H. 985 mb
I. 8 C / 3071 m
J. 16 C / 3054 m
K. NA / NA
L. OPEN SE - S
M. C30
N. 12345 / 07
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF301 0308A GONZALO OB 13
MAX FL WIND 77 KT 027 / 18 NM 20:03:00Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 130 / 05 KT
;

[msbee]

St Maarten now reporting wind gusts of 63 mph.

Conditions at: TNCM observed 13 October 2014 19:00 UTC
Temperature: 24.0°C (75°F)
Dewpoint: 22.0°C (72°F) [RH = 89%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.68 inches Hg (1005.0 mb)
Winds: from the NE (50 degrees) at 40 MPH (35 knots; 18.2 m/s)
gusting to 63 MPH (55 knots; 28.6 m/s)
Visibility: 4 miles (6 km)
Ceiling: at least 12,000 feet AGL
Clouds: few clouds at 1700 feet AGL
Present Weather: RA (rain)
TNCM 131900Z 05035G55KT 6000 RA FEW017TCU 24/22 Q1005 A2969 RER A TEMPO 3000 +SHRA

NDG where are you getting your info from?
The last I saw was 40 MPH but I know there have been much higher gusts
I can tell you that it is very bad here right now.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
500 PM AST MON OCT 13 2014

...GONZALO BECOMES A HURRICANE WHILE MOVING THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING LIKELY...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 62.9W
ABOUT 20 MI...30 KM SE OF ST. MARTIN
ABOUT 140 MI...230 KM ESE OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 12 MPH...19 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...984 MB...29.06 INCHES

[Hammy]

Looks like some overshooting tops wrapping around on the western side, the next pass (if they do another NW-SE) should be interesting. Eye is looking very circular on radar now too, too bad it's getting too far out of range to make out the western portion.

[supercane4867]

FORECAST VALID 15/1800Z 23.8N 68.2W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
50 KT... 60NE 50SE 30SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 100SE 70SW 120NW.

[Hammy]

73kts measured by the plane, a bit surprising they only went with 65kt for the advisory and not 70kt.

[ronjon]

Hurricane is about to run right over St Martin. Stay safe Msbee!

[abajan]

Of all the islands, it looks like Anguilla is facing the worst situation (wind-wise) right now and then possibly Bermuda days down the road. The thing is, the data from Anguilla is full of gaps, with nothing since 9 AM: http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TQPF.html

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ronjon]

Current RADAR:

http://www.meteo.fr/temps/domtom/antilles/pack-public/animation/animMOSAIC_ant.html

[abajan]

Hurricane is about to run right over St Martin. Stay safe Msbee!

Indeed!

[cycloneye]

Hurricane is about to run right over St Martin. Stay safe Msbee!

Indeed!

Knowing her I can say she is hunkered down in a safe place.