ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hammy]

its called, this was a wave/depression yesterday. Do we expect it to go from a wave to a concentric eye in 24 hours?

NHC did indeed go with 70mph for 2pm. There is either dry air or light shear still present as the convection has still not wrapped completely around to the southwest.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 5A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
200 PM AST MON OCT 13 2014

...GONZALO CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN WHILE IT MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 62.4W
ABOUT 65 MI...105 KM SE ST. MARTIN
ABOUT 185 MI...295 KM ESE OF ST. THOMAS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...988 MB...29.18 INCHES

[NDG]

VDM says hurricane

000
URNT12 KNHC 131746
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL082014
A. 13/17:21:00Z
B. 17 deg 32 min N
062 deg 21 min W
C. 700 mb 2998 m
D. 64 kt
E. 241 deg 4 nm
F. 302 deg 47 kt
G. 219 deg 9 nm
H. 988 mb
I. 8 C / 3050 m
J. 14 C / 3049 m
K. NA / NA
L. OPEN W - E
M. C20
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF301 0308A GONZALO OB 03
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 72 KT 051 / 27 NM 17:28:30Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 020 / 07 KT
;

Yes, that 64 knot by SFMR was indeed not flagged at a low rain rate.

[SouthDadeFish]

This was very borderline. 74 knots at flight level with a 10% reduction is ~ 65 knots.

[Alyono]

those sfmr winds in the southwest quadrant were as bogus as an Indonesian election

[supercane4867]

its called, this was a wave/depression yesterday. Do we expect it to go from a wave to a concentric eye in 24 hours?

NHC did indeed go with 70mph for 2pm. There is either dry air or light shear still present as the convection has still not wrapped completely around to the southwest.

It was expected to reach 70mph within 12 hours as of 11AM discussion and it has done that only 3 hours after the advisory. This does mean something right?

[NDG]

those sfmr winds in the southwest quadrant were as bogus as an Indonesian election

Unflagged 64 knot by SFMR was in the NE quadrant, but yes I agree about the SW quadrant readings, they were bogus.

[northjaxpro]

msbee, you must have missed my post to you on the Observations thread. If you go back to that thread, I wished you and all in the NE Caribbean islands to stay safe.

Of course, I would never miss an opportunity to pray and wish for the best for all people who are facing an event of this magnitude or any natural disaster for that matter.

[cycloneye]

The San Juan radar is already capturing the center of Gonzalo. This is a saved loop.

[msbee]

msbee, you must have missed my post to you on the Observations thread. If you go back to that thread, I wished you and all in the NE Caribbean islands to stay safe.

Of course, I would never miss an opportunity to pray and wish for the best for all people who are facing an event of this magnitude or any natural disaster for that matter.

I did just see your post. sorry. and thanks..

[northjaxpro]

msbee, you must have missed my post to you on the Observations thread. If you go back to that thread, I wished you and all in the NE Caribbean islands to stay safe.

Of course, I would never miss an opportunity to pray and wish for the best for all people who are facing an event of this magnitude or any natural disaster for that matter.

I did just see your post. sorry. and thanks..

No problem msbee. Again, stay safe and everyone else down in the NE Caribbean!

[gatorcane]

Dry air looks to be exiting as seen by this WV floater below:

[Alyono]

those northeast quadrant winds are even more bogus! The FL winds were a while 15 kts

wonder if they flied too close to one of the islands?

[Hammy]

its called, this was a wave/depression yesterday. Do we expect it to go from a wave to a concentric eye in 24 hours?

NHC did indeed go with 70mph for 2pm. There is either dry air or light shear still present as the convection has still not wrapped completely around to the southwest.

It was expected to reach 70mph within 12 hours as of 11AM discussion and it has done that only 3 hours after the advisory. This does mean something right?

I think far too much is being read into what I said, which was simply that the data does not quite support hurricane intensity, and my reasoning as to why it wasn't quite there yet. It's still running well ahead of the intensity forecast, and in fact every storm this season has either peaked at or higher than it was forecast to.

[Gustywind]

Increasing numbers for el senor Gonzalooo...

13/1745 UTC 17.6N 62.3W T3.5/3.5 GONZALO
13/1145 UTC 16.7N 61.2W T3.0/3.0 GONZALO

[gatorcane]

Looks like it is continuing to jog a bit more right (east) of the forecast points. If it continues, good news for Puerto Rico.

[NDG]

Pressure down another 2 mb.

[NDG]

St Maarten now reporting wind gusts of 63 mph.

Conditions at: TNCM observed 13 October 2014 19:00 UTC
Temperature: 24.0°C (75°F)
Dewpoint: 22.0°C (72°F) [RH = 89%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.68 inches Hg (1005.0 mb)
Winds: from the NE (50 degrees) at 40 MPH (35 knots; 18.2 m/s)
gusting to 63 MPH (55 knots; 28.6 m/s)
Visibility: 4 miles (6 km)
Ceiling: at least 12,000 feet AGL
Clouds: few clouds at 1700 feet AGL
Present Weather: RA (rain)
TNCM 131900Z 05035G55KT 6000 RA FEW017TCU 24/22 Q1005 A2969 RER A TEMPO 3000 +SHRA

[Hammy]

Eye no longer visible on satellite as it appears to be obscured by convection trying to build the southern eyewall.

[Sanibel]

I think that clear spot is the eye and will do a west eyewall pass on St Martin.



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