ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TARHEELPROGRAMMER]

Anyone else notice that the models were initialized well above where this storm is at now? Is that common? Seems to already be below all the forecast models.

Not at all. the H85 vortex is initialized pretty reasonably on the GFS and CMC, both of which have a 06Z position near or a little north of Guadeloupe. Certainly not "well north" of Gonzalo's current position.

Okay thanks because I am looking at Spaghetti Model site and the models at 11pm showed all the models showing a north west movement by now.

[bvigal]

As an aside, does anybody know where I can find the Saint Martin radar?

Unavailable.

It may be down for maintenance, like the one in Curacao, but whatever the case is, there isn't even a link to it on the Netherland Antilles meteo agency's web page right now.

A couple of years ago, I wrote for an answer to that. When the Netherlands Antilles were disolved in 2010, St. Maarten was left on their own to maintain the radar, even though they are officially a 'constituent country' of the Netherlands. So the next time the radar went down, it stayed down. Perhaps their government has different values than the NA did. Ironically, it seems like the United Nations had a program to fund radar in EC countries, but guess it did not include St. Maarten, who already had working radar. I miss that radar a lot. Thank God for MeteoFrance and the Barbados radar to see what's coming before it reaches the range of Puerto Rico radar!

[AJC3]

As an aside, does anybody know where I can find the Saint Martin radar?

Unavailable.

It may be down for maintenance, like the one in Curacao, but whatever the case is, there isn't even a link to it on the Netherland Antilles meteo agency's web page right now.

A couple of years ago, I wrote for an answer to that. When the Netherlands Antilles were disolved in 2010, St. Maarten was left on their own to maintain the radar, even though they are officially a 'constituent country' of the Netherlands. So the next time the radar went down, it stayed down. Perhaps their government has different values than the NA did. Ironically, it seems like the United Nations had a program to fund radar in EC countries, but guess it did not include St. Maarten, who already had working radar. I miss that radar a lot. Thank God for MeteoFrance and the Barbados radar to see what's coming before it reaches the range of Puerto Rico radar!

I'm not nearly as up to snuff on the happenings down in the islands as the locals are, bur from what I understand, didn't DSM get a new radar in 2010 as part of the CMO's Caribbean radar network/improvement project? It seems senseless that monies for maintenance weren't properly apportioned. Having has an 88D sitting about 50 yards from where I'm typing this for the past 22+ years, I can attest to just how much routine preventative maintenance these beasts need, let alone the other problems caused by the wear and tear of day to day operations.

[bvigal]

I'm not nearly as up to snuff on the happenings down in the islands as the locals are, bur from what I understand, didn't DSM get a new radar in 2010 as part of the CMO's Caribbean radar network/improvement project? It seems senseless that monies for maintenance weren't properly apportioned. Having has an 88D sitting about 50 yards from where I'm typing this for the past 22+ years, I can attest to just how much routine preventative maintenance these beasts need, let alone the other problems caused by the wear and tear of day to day operations.

That sounds familiar. Yes, I guess all radars cost a bundle to maintain, especially when constantly blasted by not just lightning, but salt air. I'm amazed how often the Florida TDR's are down for routine maintenance.
Edit: Oh wait, by DSM you mean Dutch Saint Maarten? ..thought you referred to DR. Seems I was using the St. Maarten & ABC radars well before 2010. The program I read about was on CARICOM site
http://www.caricom.org/jsp/pressreleases/pres144_00.jsp
It is with CMO, but does not mention St. Maarten, that's why I thought what I did. sorry

[Hammy]

Radar indicates WNW movement now so it may have spared Guadeloupe from a direct hit; Barbuda now appears to be in the direct path.

[Hammy]

Looks a lot stronger than 50 mph. Recon should be interesting tomorrow.

[FireRat]

Looks like its forecast to take a Hortense '96 path, hopefully this won't be such a wet storm like that one was for the islands. Flash Flooding & Mudslides should be the biggest threats as of now IMO. Wow, what a surprise burst of activity we got here this weekend

[Hammy]

Looks like its forecast to take a Hortense '96 path, hopefully this won't be such a wet storm like that one was for the islands. Flash Flooding & Mudslides should be the biggest threats as of now IMO. Wow, what a surprise burst of activity we got here this weekend

Interesting comparison, because I believe Hortense also struggled somewhat prior to reaching Puerto Rico then exploded after passing Hispaniola.

[caribepr]

It stands a chance to strengthen past that yes but for people in PR in my OPINION I think they dodged a bullet. This thing was looking poised earlier to take off and never did.

You can not possibly say that anyone has "dodged a bullet" until the storm is in the history books (which I don't think has happened yet), OPINION or not.

NHC, models still forecast strengthening, possibily rapidly. What you're doing isn't just making observations, it's spreading misinformation since you have no facts to back anything up.

Thank you, EJ. Even as the situation is shifting, if we are erring on the side of caution, it is never a bad idea.

[beoumont]

Wild guess for recon. first reading this afternoon: 987 mb.

Below, Antiqua says: "Something's happening here."

13 04:00 NE 32 NA Light Rain Heavy Showers Rain and Windy
13 03:00 NE 29 NA Heavy Showers Rain and Windy
13 02:00 NE 21 NA Heavy Showers Rain and Breezy
13 01:00 E 17 NA Light Showers Rain Showers Rain

[Hammy]

Outflow beginning to reestablish itself to the west with a nice bit of cirrus spewing out to the west showing up on water vapor.

[SFLcane]

Looking better for PR as models have shifted north. Most of the wx with Gonzalo is to the north and east of LLC so as this moves closer to PR you may get into some TS winds. Other then that we watch this explode near Bermuda as it heads out to sea.

[abajan]

Winds in Antigua very close to tropical storm force. By 6 AM they should be:



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[cycloneye]

Looking better for PR as models have shifted north. Most of the wx with Gonzalo is to the north and east of LLC so as this moves closer to PR you may get into some TS winds. Other then that we watch this explode near Bermuda as it heads out to sea.

Good for us indeed but still some bands with some TS force winds will move into the Northern part of the island and also some heavy rains that may be enhanced by orographic effects from the mountains but overall much better. I hope Gonzalo does not do the RI thing before it clears all the islands.

[chaser1]

Looking better for PR as models have shifted north. Most of the wx with Gonzalo is to the north and east of LLC so as this moves closer to PR you may get into some TS winds. Other then that we watch this explode near Bermuda as it heads out to sea.

Good for us indeed but still some bands with some TS force winds will move into the Northern part of the island and also some heavy rains that may be enhanced by orographic effects from the mountains but overall much better. I hope Gonzalo does not do the RI thing before it clears all the islands.

I wouldn't be quite as optimist regarding a lessoned impact to E. Puerto Rico and here is why. As I'm looking at the satellite loop, I almost get a sense that there might have been a slight southerly enchantment of the 500mb flow, mostly caused by the gap in the ridge due to the departing Fay well to the north. As Fay rapidly moves on the the ENE, I'm thinking that some of the displaced mid Atlantic ridging, will begin to rebuild to the north of Gustavo somewhat. In the grand scale, this wouldn't be a cause for major course adjustments, but I"m just thinking that Gustavo a fairly small and compact storm, might soon start bending back to its more original 275 West heading, at least for the better part of today.

[cycloneye]

You can view some web cams from the islands. Some don't work but the the majority are so you can see how things are doing. You can also see the Soufriere Volcano cam.Scroll down the first post of the Caribbean-Central America thread.

viewtopic.php?f=24&t=85676&hilit=&start=0

[abajan]

Looking better for PR as models have shifted north. Most of the wx with Gonzalo is to the north and east of LLC so as this moves closer to PR you may get into some TS winds. Other then that we watch this explode near Bermuda as it heads out to sea.

Good for us indeed but still some bands with some TS force winds will move into the Northern part of the island and also some heavy rains that may be enhanced by orographic effects from the mountains but overall much better. I hope Gonzalo does not do the RI thing before it clears all the islands.

I wouldn't be quite as optimist regarding a lessoned impact to E. Puerto Rico and here is why. As I'm looking at the satellite loop, I almost get a sense that there might have been a slight southerly enchantment of the 500mb flow, mostly caused by the gap in the ridge due to the departing Fay well to the north. As Fay rapidly moves on the the ENE, I'm thinking that some of the displaced mid Atlantic ridging, will begin to rebuild to the north of Gustavo somewhat. In the grand scale, this wouldn't be a cause for major course adjustments, but I"m just thinking that Gustavo a fairly small and compact storm, might soon start bending back to its more original 275 West heading, at least for the better part of today.

Gonzalo

[NDG]

Antigua now reporting steady winds at 45 mph.

Conditions at: TAPA observed 13 October 2014 11:00 UTC
Temperature: 24.0°C (75°F)
Dewpoint: 22.0°C (72°F) [RH = 89%]
Pressure (altimeter): 29.70 inches Hg (1006.0 mb)
Winds: from the NE (40 degrees) at 45 MPH (39 knots; 20.3 m/s)
Visibility: 2.49 miles (4.01 km)
Ceiling: at least 12,000 feet AGL
Clouds: few clouds at 1200 feet AGL
Present Weather: RA (rain)

[NDG]

Recon finds pressure around 995mb!!!!!

[SouthDadeFish]

Recon found extrap pressure of 993 mb. 7 mb lower than the 09 Z estimate. Wow. Gonzalo continues to deepen.