ATL: GONZALO - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hammy]

It took until mid-October but we've achieved multiple active systems at once.

[Gustywind]

Vamos con Gonzalo as Speedy Gonzalez

000
WTNT33 KNHC 121745
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GONZALO SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
130 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2014

...TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORMS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 130 PM AST...1730 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 58.4W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THE GOVERNMENT OF FRANCE HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR
GUADELOUPE...DESIRADE...LES SAINTES...MARIE GALANTE...ST. MARTIN...
AND ST. BARTHELEMY

THE GOVERNMENT OF THE NETHERLANDS ANTILLES HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR ST.MAARTIN...SABA...AND ST. EUSTATIUS.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FOR BARBUDA...ANTIGUA...ANGUILLA...ST. KITTS...
NEVIS...AND MONTSERRAT.

THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WATCH FOR THE BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR PUERTO RICO...VIEQUES...
CULEBRA...AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS.

[CrazyC83]

I wonder - could Gonzalo start RI'ing and hit the islands very hard?

[lordkev]

I wonder - could Gonzalo start RI'ing and hit the islands very hard?

RI'ing?

[pgoss11]

I wonder - could Gonzalo start RI'ing and hit the islands very hard?

RI'ing?

I believe that's Rapid Intensification

[RL3AO]

I wonder - could Gonzalo start RI'ing and hit the islands very hard?

RI'ing?

RI is rapid intensification.

He was asking if it may intensify quickly and strike the islands stronger than expected. Haven't looked at enough data to provide an answer tough.

[RL3AO]

Just looking at a satellite loop, I'm rather impressed. Looks to be in a decent environment with nice looking outflow in all quads.

[gatorcane]

Wow NHC shows a hurricane for Puerto Rico!

[lordkev]

I wonder - could Gonzalo start RI'ing and hit the islands very hard?

RI'ing?

RI is rapid intensification.

He was asking if it may intensify quickly and strike the islands stronger than expected. Haven't looked at enough data to provide an answer tough.

Got it, thanks!

[gatorcane]

[RL3AO]

I think its worth noting that small TCs can go trough very quick intensity changes. Both strengthening and weakening.

Also found this nugget from NHC interesting.

The small size of Gonzalo, combined with low shear conditions less
than 10 kt and SSTs of at least 29C, argue for at least steady
strengthening throughout the forecast period

No the phrase "at least" in front of steady strengthening.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I have a hard time believing NHC's forecast for Gonzalo...we'll see. There's a lot of dry air lurking nearby (mid-level RH values near 50%).

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track.

AL, 08, 2014101218, , BEST, 0, 164N, 587W, 35, 1007, TS

[Gustywind]

From SSD...

What a gradual intensification from Gonzalo... looking for a 2.5/ 2.5 during the next hours?


DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM

12/1745 UTC 16.5N 58.4W T2.0/2.0 GONZALO

12/1145 UTC 16.6N 57.4W T1.5/1.5 90L

12/0545 UTC 16.2N 56.2W T1.0/1.0 90L

[Gustywind]

18z Best Track.

AL, 08, 2014101218, , BEST, 0, 164N, 587W, 35, 1007, TS

Looks like Gonzalo lost 2 more mb since 130 PM weather forecast...

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM GONZALO SPECIAL ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
130 PM AST SUN OCT 12 2014

...TROPICAL STORM GONZALO FORMS EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS AND WATCHES ISSUED...


SUMMARY OF 130 PM AST...1730 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.4N 58.4W
ABOUT 200 MI...320 KM E OF GUADELOUPE
ABOUT 230 MI...370 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES

[Sanibel]

We might get a little buzzer here that makes up for lost time and taps untapped waters.

[Gustywind]

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE 1009 MB LOW WAS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM GONZALO AT
12/1730 UTC. TROPICAL STORM GONZALO IS CENTERED NEAR 16.4N 58.4W
AT 12/1730 UTC OR ABOUT 175 NM E OF GUADELOUPE ABOUT 200 NM E-SE
OF ANTIGUA MOVING W AT 9 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE
IS 1009 MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 35 KT WITH GUSTS
TO 45 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS FROM
14N-18N BETWEEN 56W-59W. BANDS OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE FROM 14N56W
ACROSS THE ISLANDS NEAR 25N61W TO 16N63W. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO FIRST REACH THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. SWELLS GENERATED BY
GONZALO WILL AFFECT THE LEEWARD ISLANDS TONIGHT AND MONDAY
MORNING FROM DOMINICA NORTHWARD...AFFECTING THE U.S. AND BRITISH
VIRGIN ISLANDS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. SEE THE LATEST FORECAST/
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC AND THE
INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/
WTNT33 FOR MORE DETAILS.

[NDG]

True that there is a lot of dry mid level air around Gonzalo but forecasted shear is to stay below 10 knots through the next few days so dry air intrusion may not be that much of a problem.

[gatorcane]

Looking good with new convection blowing up over the center:

[RL3AO]

Building convection over the center this evening. Going to be a an interesting 48 hours for those in the islands.