Texas Fall-2014

[TheProfessor]

Well, something is definitely in the air, I've had to miss 4 straight days of school because of my asthma, I was caught a bit off guard because my asthma has been well under control for the last 3 years.

[gboudx]

I've always wondered what causes a bad ragweed season like this year? Was it because of the wetter conditions across the state during the summer?

I did my own personal research back in 2010 when i i had the worst allergies ive ever had in my life. Apparently it starts when the cold front bring the pollen down from the plains states region. Now, in 2010 i kept having hay fever and allergy problems which led to bronchitis. It was the worst. Around this time that year as well, we didnt have any rain to wash the pollen away for almost a month so the difficulties continued. I think rain helps push things down for a bit but ultimately a freeze kills it all.

A freeze in the plains states region is actually good enough to get rid of the problem..

This is good to know and thanks for the info. I'm taking all the allergy meds I can, sudafed and doing the nasal rinse. There's only so much that can be done when our bodies are under constant attack.

Professor, sorry to hear about your asthma. Let's hope for an early plains states freeze for some local relief.

[Ntxw]

I've always wondered what causes a bad ragweed season like this year? Was it because of the wetter conditions across the state during the summer?

I did my own personal research back in 2010 when i i had the worst allergies ive ever had in my life. Apparently it starts when the cold front bring the pollen down from the plains states region. Now, in 2010 i kept having hay fever and allergy problems which led to bronchitis. It was the worst. Around this time that year as well, we didnt have any rain to wash the pollen away for almost a month so the difficulties continued. I think rain helps push things down for a bit but ultimately a freeze kills it all.

A freeze in the plains states region is actually good enough to get rid of the problem..

Neat stuff, thanks for sharing that. I'd like to get a bigger sample size for years and try to match up the weather patterns to it. I know the key to controlling allergies is to get treatment before it kicks up so some good information to have

[Tireman4]

I've always wondered what causes a bad ragweed season like this year? Was it because of the wetter conditions across the state during the summer?

I did my own personal research back in 2010 when i i had the worst allergies ive ever had in my life. Apparently it starts when the cold front bring the pollen down from the plains states region. Now, in 2010 i kept having hay fever and allergy problems which led to bronchitis. It was the worst. Around this time that year as well, we didnt have any rain to wash the pollen away for almost a month so the difficulties continued. I think rain helps push things down for a bit but ultimately a freeze kills it all.

A freeze in the plains states region is actually good enough to get rid of the problem..

Neat stuff, thanks for sharing that. I'd like to get a bigger sample size for years and try to match up the weather patterns to it. I know the key to controlling allergies is to get treatment before it kicks up so some good information to have

You know NTxw...there could be journal article lurking in that research...hint hint...LOL

[weatherdude1108]

This forum has turned into the allergy discussion.

[AggieSpirit]

I have a conflict between a soccer game and hockey game for my daughter tomorrow.

I am actually hoping it is raining in Midlothian by about 5PM, so she doesn't have to miss one or the other.

What are my chances of storms by 5PM tomorrow in Midlothian?

[gboudx]

I have a conflict between a soccer game and hockey game for my daughter tomorrow.

I am actually hoping it is raining in Midlothian by about 5PM, so she doesn't have to miss one or the other.

What are my chances of storms by 5PM tomorrow in Midlothian?

The main show is looks to start during the overnight hours so I would count on that soccer game. Here's the forecast:

Friday: Partly sunny, with a high near 88. South wind 10 to 15 mph, with gusts as high as 20 mph.

Friday Night: Showers and thunderstorms, mainly after 1am. Low around 65. South wind 5 to 10 mph becoming light and variable in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 80%.

[TheProfessor]

The GFS has gotten wetter for the Metroplex through out its runs today for Friday-Monday.

[Ntxw]

The GFS has gotten wetter for the Metroplex through out its runs today for Friday-Monday.

Euro puts a wide swath of 2-4 in rains for North Texas, average around 3-3.5. Bullseye over DFW airport region sure needs it. Would be nice for sure in two rounds. First tomorrow night 1-3 inches from front+simon. Second from Deep trough Sunday night through Tues another inch or so.

[Ntxw]

0z GFS continues that trend, widespread rainfall for Oklahoma, North, Northeast Texas the next 72 hours. Both models like the 2-4 range. Fingers crossed.

[WacoWx]

Can anyone give me an opinionated forecast (I'm looking at you Ntxw) for the TX v ou game in the morning at 11:00, and not a weather channel or noaa forecast? We will be tailgating from 7 am until game time, and I'd like to be able to give the womenz some good, dry news.

[Rgv20]

Denton Forecast......Hopefully I can arrive before the rain comes in!

Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms. Low around 56. Light and variable wind becoming north northeast 5 to 10 mph in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Denton Forecast......Hopefully I can arrive before the rain comes in!

Tonight: Showers and thunderstorms. Low around 56. Light and variable wind becoming north northeast 5 to 10 mph in the evening. Chance of precipitation is 100%.

I'm not sure I can remember the last time I saw "Chance of precepitation is 100%" on a DFW weather forecast.

[Ntxw]

Most of the rain will occur between 6pm tonight and 6am tomorrow. Early tailgaters probably won't see much after 6am just drizzle, clouds, or sprinkles. By 9am it should be dry.

If you plan on going on tonight bring a poncho

[WacoWx]

I will not hold you to that, but thank you.

When I started to see "2-4 inches", I didn't know if this had turned into more of an ongoing event instead of a squall line/light overriding moisture event. Hopefully the 2-4 is for the entire weekend.

[weatherdude1108]

Weather Underground shows "80%" tonight/tomorrow morning for the Austin area, and another 80% shot Monday morning. Let's hope they're right! If they are right, let's not go another 3.5 weeks without rain!

Weather Underground
Elev 890 ft 30.50 °N, 97.81 °W
Friday Night
Mostly clear this evening. Increasing clouds with thunderstorms developing after midnight. Low 66F. Winds S at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80%.

Saturday
Thunderstorms in the morning, then skies turning partly cloudy late. High 76F. Winds NNW at 10 to 15 mph. Chance of rain 80%.

Saturday Night
Partly cloudy skies early followed by mostly cloudy skies and a few showers later at night. Low 61F. Winds N at 5 to 10 mph. Chance of rain 30%.

Sunday
Sunshine and clouds mixed. High around 85F. E winds shifting to S at 10 to 15 mph.

Sunday Night
Clear skies early. Scattered showers and thunderstorms developing later during the night. Low 72F. Winds S at 10 to 20 mph. Chance of rain 40%.

Monday
Thunderstorms in the morning, then becoming sunny late. High around 75F. Winds NW at 15 to 25 mph. Chance of rain 80%.

[Ntxw]

I will not hold you to that, but thank you.

When I started to see "2-4 inches", I didn't know if this had turned into more of an ongoing event instead of a squall line/light overriding moisture event. Hopefully the 2-4 is for the entire weekend.

Its from two separate events, tonight then again Sun night into Monday

[dhweather]

If Al Davis had been a weatherman, he'd say JUST RAIN BABY !!!

I hope everyone gets a soaking!

[Tireman4]

This is from Srain...from Jeff.....


Afternoon Briefing from Jeff:

Multiple storm systems to affect the state over the next 72 hours.

This afternoon-Saturday evening:

Cold front over NW TX is on the move early this afternoon even in the face of low level mixing which normally helps to slow up such boundaries. Temperature at Dallas is 90 while Perryton, TX in the panhandle is 52. Air mass ahead of this boundary is becoming very unstable with strong warm air advection regime in place across central and east TX pumping copious moisture northward. Air temperatures in the upper 80’s and dewpoints in the mid 60’s to mid 70’s are supporting CAPE values of 2500-3500 J/Kg ahead of the boundary. Capping noted around 700mb is eroding with strong frontal forcing and incoming lift from an upper level trough over the SW US. Numerous thunderstorms will erupt along the frontal boundary from NE MX to NE TX by late afternoon and move southeastward overnight. Severe threat for wind damage and large hail will be possible this evening mainly NW of SE TX. High resolution models bring this line of weather into SE TX between 1000pm and 300am tonight while showing a gradual weakening of the line. Actual front may stall inland of the coast early Saturday, but strong outflow boundary is support by meso models to push offshore and into deep south TX with scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms along this feature. Not real sure where the front will come up stationary on Saturday, but meso models show little development on the boundary with the deep moisture being shunted south by the early morning outflow boundary.

Sunday-Monday:
Impressive upper level storm system heading for the US west coast drops SSE into the high plains this weekend and into the central plains early next week. Large scale ascent will overspread much of the southern plains late Sunday with the rapid formation of a surface cyclone over NW TX. This system quickly deepens to sub 1000mb Sunday night resulting in a developing strong pressure gradient over the state. Low level jet really cranks up Sunday evening to 50kts or better off the western Gulf which will quickly transport a moist and unstable air mass northward from the south TX coast to near the OK border by early Monday morning. Deepening surface cyclone (sub 1000mb) over OK will result in a strong cold front plowing southward across TX Monday.

While Sunday looks to be a fairly inactive…much of this depends on exactly where the cold front stalls out on Saturday as this feature will return northward Sunday ahead of the developing surface low over NW TX. Based on the frontal movement this afternoon and expected numerous storms along the boundary overnight, the boundary or its outflow, could easily push to the coast Saturday and then the question becomes how quickly does it lift northward on Sunday and do any storms attempt to develop on the northward moving warm front. The reason why this is important is that warm fronts can at times produce severe weather especially with such a dynamic looking system approaching from the west.

Bigger story will likely be on Monday as the strong cold front plows into a warm and unstable air mass over SE TX with high amounts of wind energy. Impressively dynamic storm system will bear impacts across the entire state. Linear forcing on the strong cold front supports a squall line developing over NW TX late Sunday night and progressing southeast Monday. Timing shows the front reaching SE TX around midday with some heating ahead of the line. Main question is does the air mass over SE TX becomes unstable enough to produce isolated supercells ahead of the main line. Very strong wind shear will be in place with 50kt low level jet at 2000 ft veering to 80kts at 5000 ft leading to both speed and directional wind shear. Any cells that can root near the surface will have a tornado threat if surface based instability is favorable enough. Squall line will move across the region Monday with a damaging wind threat along its leading edge. Capping may attempt to move into the area from the SW, but think a severe threat for wind damage is certainly warranted even this far out for Monday especially north of I-10 given the strong wind energy aloft. Cells will be moving quickly on the order of 35-45mph so while heavy rainfall looks likely, the flooding threat should be low given the fast storm motion as long as cell training does not develop.

Strong cold front will blast off the coast with cold air advection and gusty NW winds in the post frontal regime. Temperatures will fall from the 80’s into the 60’s with the frontal passage with NW winds of 25-35mph. Cold air striking the warm Gulf waters will result in gusts to gale force or better Monday night and strong coastal winds will continue for much of Monday night .

Tuesday through the end of next week will feature near perfect weather with mostly clear skies under surface high pressure with lows in the 50’s and highs in the 70’s to lower 80’s with low humidity.

Will update again on Sunday with a focus on the Monday storm system and severe threat.

[TheProfessor]

It looks like the Storms are starting further west-southwest than previously thought, what could that mean for precip totals in North Texas?