ATL: FAY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

AL, 99, 2014100806, , BEST, 0, 193N, 580W, 20, 1011, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2014100812, , BEST, 0, 194N, 586W, 20, 1010, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2014100818, , BEST, 0, 196N, 592W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2014100900, , BEST, 0, 198N, 597W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2014100906, , BEST, 0, 200N, 601W, 25, 1009, DB, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0,
AL, 99, 2014100912, , BEST, 0, 204N, 605W, 25, 1009, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1010, 150, 120, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,



Thread at Talking Tropics forum that was the topic for this area.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=116819&hilit=&start=0



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU OCT 9 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms located several hundred
miles northeast of the northern Leeward Islands are associated with
a broad surface low pressure area and an upper-level low.
Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for
gradual development of this system as a tropical or subtropical
cyclone during the next few days while the surface low moves
northwestward or north-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Berg

[cycloneye]

SSD Floater is up

[tropicwatch]

No floater images yet and models are slow this morning.

[jaguarjace]

Off topic but looks like Soufriere Hills is showing activity in that visible image.

[tropicwatch]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity, associated with a broad surface
low pressure area and an upper-level low, is becoming a little
better organized several hundred miles northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear generally
conducive for additional development during the next couple of days,
and a tropical or subtropical depression could form by the weekend
while the system moves northwestward or north-northwestward at about
10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...50 percent.

$$
Forecaster Berg

[CrazyC83]

That doesn't look like a tropical system at all...

[TheStormExpert]

That doesn't look like a tropical system at all...

Looks like a severely sheared Tropical or Subtropical Cyclone.

[SouthDadeFish]

Definitely seems to be on its way toward subtropical cyclone status.

[Hammy]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/99L/flash-rgb-long.html

If you watch the low cloud motion near 21/61 you'll see them go from almost still to cleary from the west, so I'd say within 12 hours if not less (all depending on when we get an ASCAT pass or recon) this will probably be upgraded, possibly to a storm right away.

[cycloneye]

Up to 60%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU OCT 9 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Shower and thunderstorm activity, associated with a broad surface
low pressure area and an upper-level low, continues to gradually
organize several hundred miles north-northeast of the northern
Leeward Islands. Environmental conditions appear generally
conducive for additional development, and a tropical or subtropical
depression could form during the next day or two while the system
moves northwestward or north-northwestward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...60 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...60 percent.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

AL, 99, 2014101000, , BEST, 0, 217N, 620W, 30, 1005, DB

[OuterBanker]

Looks like escape rout pretty much set in stone. Should make abrubt turn prior or just about 65w. Bermuda should see some affects though. Also shoud be just east of Bermuda also so we probably won't get any surf on the east coast. Euro in 10 days in Miami is another story.

[galaxy401]

Kind of odd the NHC says conditions are generally favorable but the 5 day chance is the same as 48 hours.

[Extratropical94]

Satellite data indicate that the low pressure system located about
350 miles north-northeast of the northern Leeward Islands has
become a little better defined. This system is interacting
with an upper-level low and is producing showers and thunderstorms
mainly to the north and east of the center. Environmental
conditions appear generally conducive for development, and a
tropical or subtropical depression could form during the next day or
so while the system moves northwestward or north-northwestward at 10
to 15 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[sunnyday]

Is this the one that earlier this week was predicted to go to Florida?

[Hurricaneman]

Is this the one that earlier this week was predicted to go to Florida?

no, that was the one behind it

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[TheStormExpert]

Up to 90% as of the 8am TWO. We may likely see Subtropical Depression 7 or Fay sometime today if trends continue.

Satellite imagery indicates that showers and thunderstorms
associated with a low pressure system located about 625 miles south
of Bermuda are becoming better organized, and a subtropical
depression or storm could be forming. If this trend continues,
advisories will be initiated later this morning or afternoon. The
low is forecast to move northwestward and then northward at 10 to
15 mph during the next couple of days. An Air Force Hurricane Hunter
aircraft is scheduled to investigate this system this afternoon.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent.

[NDG]

It looks much better this morning with convection now getting close to the surface circulation, it could be upgraded as soon as 11 AM.

[TheStormExpert]

I'd be shocked if this wasn't upgraded at 11am and straight to Subtropical Storm Fay at that!

[sunnyday]

Thank you, Hurricaneman.