Texas Fall-2014

[srainhoutx]

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) dropped to a record -4.057 today. It is only the second time since 1950 the AO has dropped to -4 or below in October.

[Tireman4]

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) dropped to a record -4.057 today. It is only the second time since 1950 the AO has dropped to -4 or below in October.

This could be a "Look out for Winter" variable...LOL

[texas1836]

This is a good sign for cold lovers in Houston. This could give you guys a better chance of cold air plunging further south. It would be really nice to see record cold air in October, seeing we almost broke a high temperature yesterday.

[Ralph's Weather]

It appears that we are in for an interesting time following the weather. Some good rain this weekend followed by what looks to be a pretty strong front early next week then another strong front sometime around next weekend. Depending on how things shape up we could be taking about frost before too long in Northern Texas.

[northjaxpro]

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) dropped to a record -4.057 today. It is only the second time since 1950 the AO has dropped to -4 or below in October.

Yeah, that is really impressive for October. Looks as if we may see record cold diving into the lower 48 within the next 7-10 days.

[asd123]

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) dropped to a record -4.057 today. It is only the second time since 1950 the AO has dropped to -4 or below in October.

Yeah, that is really impressive for October. Looks as if we may see record cold diving into the lower 48 within the next 7-10 days.

How long does it take for the weather in the South (Texas and Florida) to reflect the teleconnections? I am asking this because the AO is record low and there is no prospect for cold for the South.

ECMWF showing for Texas and Gulf states 850 mb temp cooldown for oct 15, but after that something strange seems to be happening. The cold 850 mb temps deepens a little bit, moves east and warms up to the north. Usually you would expect the 850 mb temps to be cooler from north to south or at least the same temp and not a ball of cooler air surrounded by warmer air to the north (hours 192 and beyond for ECMWF). When viewing 850 mb temps, I have always seen cooler to warmer or the same air temp from north to south. I have never seen anything like what I described with hour 192 and beyond for the ECMWF.

[srainhoutx]

The Arctic Oscillation (AO) dropped to a record -4.057 today. It is only the second time since 1950 the AO has dropped to -4 or below in October.

Yeah, that is really impressive for October. Looks as if we may see record cold diving into the lower 48 within the next 7-10 days.

How long does it take for the weather in the South (Texas and Florida) to reflect the teleconnections? I am asking this because the AO is record low and there is no prospect for cold for the South.

ECMWF showing for Texas and Gulf states 850 mb temp cooldown for oct 15, but after that something strange seems to be happening. The cold 850 mb temps deepens a little bit, moves east and warms up to the north. Usually you would expect the 850 mb temps to be cooler from north to south or at least the same temp and not a ball of cooler air surrounded by warmer air to the north (hours 192 and beyond for ECMWF). When viewing 850 mb temps, I have always seen cooler to warmer or the same air temp from north to south. I have never seen anything like what I described with hour 192 and beyond for the ECMWF.

The Euro is suggesting a cold core 500mb low developing at the base of the deep trough. Keep in mind the airimass has its origin in the N Pacific mairtime Region versus Continental Canadian air. As we head deeper into Fall and our source regions of Eastern Alaska/Western Canada get colder with a blocking regime, then much colder air can be pulled S into the Plains as we get into November and December.

[Ntxw]

Looking more and more likely this winter is going to be dominated by the -AO because the rest of October forecast for this index looks negative overall. What does that mean? Colder aloft and bigger storms. The EPO has been negative so far in Oct but hasn't really been flexing. Next week's storm is very likely a result of the -AO.

[TheProfessor]

Well, I've been on another forum trying to explain how October is an indicator to what might happen in the winter because of the AO, there was a guy who thinks because the temperatures have been above normal for the first 8 days in Tyler that that is a a bad sign for a cold winter, so I guess i'm not explaining it well to him, I told him to come here if he's confused so we may get some new people to the thread.

[gboudx]

Yesterday set a daily record for ragweed in DFW. Counts were 3,790 ppm. Quite a jump from the days prior as it was in the low hundreds ppm. I need an antihistamine IV drip.

[texas1836]

Yesterday set a daily record for ragweed in DFW. Counts were 3,790 ppm. Quite a jump from the days prior as it was in the low hundreds ppm. I need an antihistamine IV drip.

The only way to end ragweed, is to let it run it's course on life or an early freeze to knock it out. I see it standing 6' tall on the edge of the timber lines, most people mistake it for Colorado Gold.

[dhweather]

Yesterday set a daily record for ragweed in DFW. Counts were 3,790 ppm. Quite a jump from the days prior as it was in the low hundreds ppm. I need an antihistamine IV drip.

Seconded! A freeze is the only thing that is going to kill it. Ragweed is loving this weather.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I am also curious if this will result in a cold shot for us or how long. I dont see anything significant on the horizon due to -AO. Is this because it isnt paired with another teleconnection which would result in cold air? -NAO maybe? I see the high on the 500MB chart which may be throwing off the AO metric but its not showing a cold outbreak at all. With that said, such a big -AO in October could be very promising for us in the winter. I'll take it.

How does the warm pool near Alaska look?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Yesterday set a daily record for ragweed in DFW. Counts were 3,790 ppm. Quite a jump from the days prior as it was in the low hundreds ppm. I need an antihistamine IV drip.

Seconded! A freeze is the only thing that is going to kill it. Ragweed is loving this weather.

A solid rain helps clear it out some too.

[Portastorm]

I am also curious if this will result in a cold shot for us or how long. I dont see anything significant on the horizon due to -AO. Is this because it isnt paired with another teleconnection which would result in cold air? -NAO maybe? I see the high on the 500MB chart which may be throwing off the AO metric but its not showing a cold outbreak at all. With that said, such a big -AO in October could be very promising for us in the winter. I'll take it.

How does the warm pool near Alaska look?

The NE Pacific waters remain ridiculously warm ... just two weeks ago they were warmer at this point of the year than they were last year.

I'll write more on the 20th, but I'm telling you know and echoing what Ntxw has been saying ... this winter in Texas is going to be something to talk about.

[Ntxw]

I am also curious if this will result in a cold shot for us or how long. I dont see anything significant on the horizon due to -AO. Is this because it isnt paired with another teleconnection which would result in cold air? -NAO maybe? I see the high on the 500MB chart which may be throwing off the AO metric but its not showing a cold outbreak at all. With that said, such a big -AO in October could be very promising for us in the winter. I'll take it.

How does the warm pool near Alaska look?

This air mass is of maritime and is colder aloft (deeper air mass). The EPO isnt tanking to send low level arctic air. If it rains behind the front it will be colder than what the models advertise beneath the deep low. Severe weather needs to be watched with such strong surface cyclogenesis. Take quick look at the winter thread I reposted on the AO, it may help clarify some things on it

[gboudx]

Yesterday set a daily record for ragweed in DFW. Counts were 3,790 ppm. Quite a jump from the days prior as it was in the low hundreds ppm. I need an antihistamine IV drip.

Seconded! A freeze is the only thing that is going to kill it. Ragweed is loving this weather.

I'm suspecting something amiss at the pollen detection center yesterday. Today's values are 372 ppm and Tuesday's were 317 ppm for ragweed. Yesterday is too much a skew to be accurate, imo. Either way, bring on a freeze or we need to go scorched Earth.

[Ntxw]

I've always wondered what causes a bad ragweed season like this year? Was it because of the wetter conditions across the state during the summer?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Porta and Ntw thank you very much. Ok so the EPO helps get lower level cold arctic air down. Thanks for the input. Love this stuff. I completely agree with you guys on Texas winter. Can we talk about that here?

I see last year combined with more moisture. I cant remember if 02-03, or 09-10 was very moist, but that is my prediction. Why? Warm pool still pumping cold air down like last year, combined with warmer water in the pacific bringing in the moisture. I also just had an "a ha!" moment. Now, last year the EPO brought in lower level cold air so we were at a threat for more ice storms rather than snow since the AO didnt cooperate. If we get the AO to cooperate (higher level cold air) these could mean more snow events for Texas vs ice events. No warm air to ruin our party at 5k feet. Im pretty pumped guys.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I've always wondered what causes a bad ragweed season like this year? Was it because of the wetter conditions across the state during the summer?

I did my own personal research back in 2010 when i i had the worst allergies ive ever had in my life. Apparently it starts when the cold front bring the pollen down from the plains states region. Now, in 2010 i kept having hay fever and allergy problems which led to bronchitis. It was the worst. Around this time that year as well, we didnt have any rain to wash the pollen away for almost a month so the difficulties continued. I think rain helps push things down for a bit but ultimately a freeze kills it all.

A freeze in the plains states region is actually good enough to get rid of the problem..