Texas Fall-2014

[Ntxw]

So, NTXW, what do you think the lows will be this weekend with our front? 40's? 50's? Highs...upper 70's?

The models haven't settled on numbers. But if the deep cyclone and trof verified probably in that range as an average for the state. Areas in persistent rains will prob see 50s/60s for highs and 40s for lows at some point.

[Tireman4]

So, NTXW, what do you think the lows will be this weekend with our front? 40's? 50's? Highs...upper 70's?

The models haven't settled on numbers. But if the deep cyclone and trof verified probably in that range as an average for the state. Areas in persistent rains will prob see 50s/60s for highs and 40s for lows at some point.

Now that, young sir, I can live with.

[srainhoutx]

The models haven't settled on numbers. But if the deep cyclone and trof verified probably in that range as an average for the state. Areas in persistent rains will prob see 50s/60s for highs and 40s for lows at some point.

I'd be cautious with any 'finer' details such as potential temperatures at this range. This trough, if it verifies is of maritime origin ~vs~ a Continental or true Canadian airmass. That said some colder air pooling across Canada could be pulled S into the Plains. There remains a lot of uncertainty due the volatility across the N Pacific. The spread in the 00Z Euro ensemble mean is rather well clustered and the tanking AO does lend a bit of credence to a rather deep trough across the Inter Mountain West into the Plains.


EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
109 AM EDT TUE OCT 07 2014

VALID 12Z FRI OCT 10 2014 - 12Z TUE OCT 14 2014

...OVERVIEW AND GUIDANCE PREFERENCES...

UPPER PATTERN IS FORECAST TO TRANSITION TO DEEP TROUGHING IN THE
CENTRAL CONUS BY THE START OF NEXT WEEK... THOUGH THE
MODELS/ENSEMBLES STILL SHOW CONSIDERABLE DISAGREEMENT. THE 12Z
ECMWF/CANADIAN AND PARALLEL GFS ALONG WITH THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLE
MEAN ALL SHOW THE PATTERN TRENDING TOWARD SIGNIFICANT TROUGHING BY
NEXT MON-TUE/D6-7 WHEREAS THE RECENT GFS/GEFS RUNS ARE MUCH
WEAKER/FLATTER WITH THE ENERGY IN QUESTION AND RACE IT EASTWARD AT
A HIGHER LATITUDE INTO ONTARIO. GIVEN THE BETTER RECENT
PERFORMANCE OF THE ECMWF/ECENS MEAN WITH THE COMPLICATED/AMPLIFIED
UPPER FLOW FROM THE W PAC INTO/THROUGH NOAM... HAVE USED THE 12Z
ECMWF/ECENS MEAN AS A BASE FOR THE FORECAST. THE FACT THAT THE
PARALLEL GFS /T1534... ONLY AVAILABLE IN-HOUSE AT THIS TIME/...
LARGELY AGREES WITH THE ECMWF-LED CLUSTER OF SOLUTIONS YIELDS MORE
CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST AWAY FROM THE CURRENT/OPERATIONAL GFS
AND GEFS MEAN.


...SENSIBLE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS...

PRECIPITATION SHOULD FOCUS ALONG THE WAVY FRONTAL BOUNDARY LOCATED
SOUTH OF 40N THROUGH THE WEEKEND BEFORE LIKELY LIFTING NORTH AS
SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS IN THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND HEADS TOWARD
THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. AS THE COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE PAC
NW THERE SHOULD BE FAIRLY WIDESPREAD BUT LIGHT TO MODEST
RAINFALL... ENHANCED WITH THE TERRAIN... THROUGH THE INTERIOR INTO
THE ROCKIES. HEAVY RAINFALL POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR NEXT MON-TUE/D6-7
IN THE MID- AND LOWER-MS VALLEY SHOULD THE SHARP/DEEP TROUGH FORM
AS FORECAST... TAPPING THE GULF FOR ADDED MOISTURE. ECMWF AND
CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEANS SHOW AN AREA OF 2 INCHES QPF IN THE DAY
6-7 PERIOD /12Z SUN-12Z TUE/ INVOF ARKANSAS... WHICH IS RATHER
HIGH FOR THAT LEAD TIME. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM IN THE EAST WITH
RIDGING BUILDING DOWNSTREAM OF DIGGING TROUGHING. COOLING
TEMPERATURES SHOULD ACCOMPANY THE FROPA IN THE WEST... MOSTLY FOR
DAYTIME MAXES... BUT WILL BE TEMPERED DUE TO THE MARITIME RATHER
THAN CONTINENTAL AIRMASS ORIGINS.


FRACASSO

[weatherdude1108]

I don't buy the GFS at all, it is probably nuts. Yesterday it was trying to drive a large hurricane into Texas for the period mentioned, clearly it was smoking something. All but gone now meaning the 500mb flow it had was a joke. Severely -AO in the 3-5 sigma below with -NAO means the flow is being blocked. A deepening cyclone then would make sense since energy is forced to bundle between the ridges due to this blockage.

The GFS with the hurricane was a horrible idea, but it was the right idea (a deepening cyclone) in that sense. It's just not the hurricane, a mid latitude storm instead.

I saw that yesterday! I noticed the GFS late yesterday showed what looked like a hurricane moving up from the Caribbean, northwest into the Gulf, making a westward beeline towards central Texas, then getting caught in the westerlies, veering off to the northeast. I was confused on what it was picking up on(?). Thanks for clarifying. As long as it is some kind of rainmaker in the data, all is well.

[Ntxw]

I'd be cautious with any 'finer' details such as potential temperatures at this range. This trough, if it verifies is of maritime origin ~vs~ a Continental or true Canadian airmass. That said some colder air pooling across Canada could be pulled S into the Plains. There remains a lot of uncertainty due the volatility across the N Pacific. The spread in the 00Z Euro ensemble mean is rather well clustered and the tanking AO does lend a bit of credence to a rather deep trough across the Inter Mountain West into the Plains.

I definitely agree there is a lot of volatility. I notice the guidance keeps the AO well negative beyond it's current tank, this has strong implications for winter given it is occurring in a critical predictive month. A severely -AO October often leads to big storms DJF. 2009 had a severely negative AO October.

[gboudx]

I want whatever weather is needed to kill the ragweed. NOW!

[TeamPlayersBlue]

I definitely agree there is a lot of volatility. I notice the guidance keeps the AO well negative beyond it's current tank, this has strong implications for winter given it is occurring in a critical predictive month. A severely -AO October often leads to big storms DJF. 2009 had a severely negative AO October.

I like where your heads at! I was just saying, if we could get this is January that would be suhweeeet.



And yes the ragweed needs to go. Me and Zyrtec D are besties right now.

Was in Austin this past weekend for ACL Fest and the weather was incredible. Back again this weekend for a Bach party on Lake Travis. Hope its the same but it doesnt look that way.

[Ntxw]

Euro is still beating that drum, pretty significant late fall type trough with cut off low. 850mb temps are pretty chilly as it passes overhead for the time of year. It would be a deep air mass given the low heights <560dm. Spooky weather.

GFS wants none of that

[srainhoutx]

Euro is still beating that drum, pretty significant late fall type trough with cut off low. 850mb temps are pretty chilly as it passes overhead for the time of year. It would be a deep air mass given the low heights <560dm. Spooky weather.

GFS wants none of that

Near 3 standard deviations below normal with the 5H cold core low as suggested by the 12Z Euro. The GGEM and UKMet agree on the deep central US trough as well.

[Ntxw]

Euro is still beating that drum, pretty significant late fall type trough with cut off low. 850mb temps are pretty chilly as it passes overhead for the time of year. It would be a deep air mass given the low heights <560dm. Spooky weather.

GFS wants none of that

Near 3 standard deviations below normal with the 5H cold core low as suggested by the 12Z Euro. The GGEM and UKMet agree on the deep central US trough as well.

Would be a pretty rare and significant event. ENS like it, GFS is probably out to lunch. It also paints a good 2+ inches of rain for much of the eastern half of Texas.

In other news...there is a 150knot Super Typhoon (strongest system in any basin this year) trekking towards Japan. Likely our next trough 1-2 weeks down the road.

[Ntxw]

Before we fling the other way, as of today summer won't let go. 98F degrees in DFW ties the record for the date. It is also the warmest October day since 1979. Just disgusting for fall!

[dhweather]

Before we fling the other way, as of today summer won't let go. 98F degrees in DFW ties the record for the date. It is also the warmest October day since 1979. Just disgusting for fall!

Truth. It's almost mid-October and almost 100 degrees. OF course that means the WSI was probably +500000 today.

[dhweather]

I don't want to put words into posters mouths, but I think the majority of us have more faith in the Euro for winter weather than the GFS.


Can we do a poll on that?

[Ptarmigan]

EPO Primer

Reflecting Back on the Winter Outlook and Recent Spring Trends for 2002-03
http://www.crh.noaa.gov/dtx/winter_2002 ... review.php

Common Weather Terms
http://www.weatherbell.com/content/glossary/

This one caught my attention.
Reconstructed EPO Index
http://www.wxmidwest.com/epo/newepo.txt

However, this is based on this data, a negative EPO month like February 1989 is 3.18, while from
ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/te ... resent.txt

February 1989 average EPO is negative, -151.88.

I wonder how they calculate EPO. I like to see EPO before 1948.

[asd123]

I don't want to put words into posters mouths, but I think the majority of us have more faith in the Euro for winter weather than the GFS.


Can we do a poll on that?

Done and done: viewtopic.php?f=22&t=116821

[weatherdude1108]

Latest video blog by local meteorologist Bob Rose for all of Texas. Encouraging!

Video Part on the Link
Encouraging signs for El Niño
http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

[texas1836]

Latest video blog by local meteorologist Bob Rose for all of Texas. Encouraging!

Video Part on the Link
Encouraging signs for El Niño
http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

Encouraging is right!!! I just hope the 90's stay gone, even the high 80's. I'm guessin' it wouldn't be so bad, except for the humidity associated with it. I liked to died yesterday trying to get my Fall crop finished.

[Tireman4]

Latest video blog by local meteorologist Bob Rose for all of Texas. Encouraging!

Video Part on the Link
Encouraging signs for El Niño
http://www.lcra.org/water/river-and-wea ... ather.aspx

Encouraging is right!!! I just hope the 90's stay gone, even the high 80's. I'm guessin' it wouldn't be so bad, except for the humidity associated with it. I liked to died yesterday trying to get my Fall crop finished.

Yeah, yesterday was disgusting. Just disgusting. I am sure Wxman 57 loved it. Uggh...

[South Texas Storms]

The northern half of Texas will likely get some drought relief in the next 5 days, while the southern half of the state probably will miss out. Hopefully the 2 upcoming storm systems dig a bit further south than expected.

[texas1836]

The northern half of Texas will likely get some drought relief in the next 5 days, while the southern half of the state probably will miss out. Hopefully the 2 upcoming storm systems dig a bit further south than expected.

The way it looks, Monday's your best bet.