Texas Fall-2014

[JDawg512]

Hey, been a bit since I've posted, thought I'd chime in.

While not as severe as the Halloween Flood, we did have water come into the house from that heavy rain event a couple of weeks back.. I've tried to improve drainage but when the rain comes down as hard and as fast as it did that night, (my new digital weather station estimated at one point 5 inches per hour which at first I thought was a fluke but then I saw other reports especially over West Austin of the same.), there's little that can be done short of setting up sandbags to stop it.

Interesting set up possibly this weekend. We will need to keep an eye on it as we get closer. All the ingredients could fall into place for somewhere in Texas to get a lot of rain. Similar to last October's flood events.

[Ntxw]

FW still favors the euro even though it botched the path of Simon . Regardless, there is uncertainty this week and a lot of mesoscale features will provide forecasting headaches with remnants coming in and front. Starting tonight into tomorrow some areas of North Texas will see a quick burst of some rain, one spot might see an inch or two while very little just across town.

****

WE CONTINUE TO HAVE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN THE EXTENDED PORTION OF
THE FORECAST. THE GFS BRING THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
SIMON NORTHEAST ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THE MEXICAN STATE OF
SONORA DURING THE 48 TO 72 HOUR PERIOD. THIS SYSTEM THEN MOVES
NORTHEAST AHEAD OF A MID-LATITUDE LOW THAT WILL FORM OVER
ARIZONA... WILL MOVE NORTHEAST FROM SOUTHERN ARIZONA ACROSS NEW
MEXICO THEN THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS INTO OKLAHOMA.
THIS WOULD RESULT IN RAIN CHANCES RETURNING TO THE NORTHWESTERN
ZONES BEFORE DAYBREAK THURSDAY. RAIN CHANCES WOULD THEN SPREAD
SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT IS THEN
FORECASTED TO SINK DOWN THE PLAINS INTO THE NORTHWESTERN ZONE LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH CENTRAL TEXAS BY FRIDAY EVENING. THE
RAIN IS FORECAST TO END FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST SATURDAY. THE
GFS CONTINUES TO BE FASTER WITH THE ONSET AND ENDING OF THE RAIN
AND IS ALSO WETTER THAN THE ECMWF.

THE ECMWF BRINGS THE REMNANTS OF SIMON AND THE MID-LATITUDE LOW
FARTHER NORTH. THIS RESULTS IN RAIN CHANCES NOT STARTING UNTIL
FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN ZONES WITH RAIN CHANCES
SPREADING SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH THE REGION. AS THE UPPER TROUGH MOVES EAST....RAIN
CHANCES END FROM SATURDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY.

HAVE CONTINUED TO GO ALONG WITH A COMPROMISE BLEND THAT LEANS
CLOSER TO THE ECMWF THAN THE GFS.

[somethingfunny]

We just picked up 3.5" of rain, all within about an hour. O_o

Add that to my .75" from Thursday's maelstrom and we've already hit the October monthly average here in Garland!

[gboudx]

I don't know how much we've had yet but we had a nice hail storm around 5am. I don't think it was big enough to do damage but sure was loud.

[dhweather]

We just picked up 3.5" of rain, all within about an hour. O_o

Add that to my .75" from Thursday's maelstrom and we've already hit the October monthly average here in Garland!

Yes you did. I at least go 1" out of it, but 3" would have been awesome. Good for you !!!!

[Ntxw]

DFW airport got 0.01 inches of rain overnight.

[WeatherNewbie]

Huge thunderclap woke up our house at 4:36. Then the hail right around 5:00. Looks like we picked up a couple inches glancing at how far our pond rose.

[dhweather]

DFW airport got 0.01 inches of rain overnight.

It is amazing, 15 miles west-northwest of me gets 3+ inches of rain. 30 miles west-northwest of me gets 0.01" , we ended up with 1.14"

I sure hope something good happens soon and brings widespread heavy rain to the entire North Texas area. Everyone needs rain, and a lot of it.

[Ntxw]

Yeah its been feast or famine. The big airport is going on some extremely bad luck, Sept 2-3 inches was a few miles to its west and this little event was 2-3 inches a few miles east. Good thing is this was a surprise event from 3-4 days out. Simon/front is still coming so at least the chances aren't over within the next 7 days.

[weatherdude1108]

Going on three weeks without any measurable rain at the weatherdude casa. The 5.5 inches of liquid gold we got the week of September 15th has largely transitioned into a vapor phase. Maybe this weekend will bring liquid relief with a stalled boundary to our north and a few of Simon's remnants, with more reinforcing troughs to follow, instead of moisture-squashing ridges?

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
327 PM CDT MON OCT 6 2014

LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL
FLATTEN AND GRADUALLY MOVE SOUTHEAST INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. VERY LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
COASTAL PLAINS DURING THIS TIME...BUT CONTINUED WARM ACROSS ALL OF
SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS.

THE REMNANTS OF SIMON ACROSS THE PACIFIC WILL BE ABSORBED INTO A
SOUTHERN STREAM TROUGH ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CONUS WEDNESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY. AS THE TROUGH DAMPENS AND SHEARS EAST A WEAK
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE SOUTH INTO NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS FRIDAY
NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. THE ECMWF AND GFS ARE SLOWLY CONVERGING ON
THE BOUNDARY STALLING ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL AND CENTRAL TEXAS
SATURDAY...BUT CLOSE ENOUGH IN PROXIMITY FOR BROAD/WEAK LOW LEVEL
FORCING AND THE TAIL END OF THE UPPER SUPPORT TO WARRANT LOW POPS
FOR THE NORTHERN HILL COUNTRY AND CENTRAL TEXAS COUNTIES SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. A SECOND...RE-ENFORCING TROUGH MAY MOVE THROUGH THE
AREA SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK...BUT CURRENTLY A HIGH DEGREE OF
SPREAD AMONG MODELS WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF THIS.

[South Texas Storms]

Lots of model disagreement in the long term. For instance, the GFS is showing a weak trough moving mainly north of Texas bringing little, if any, rain to central Texas during the next 10 days. However, the Euro is showing a deep trough moving further south across Texas bringing over 1 inch of rain to central Texas during the next 10 days. I'm rooting for the Euro!

[dhweather]

For entertainment purposes only, the 12Z Euro run total precip. Wish that yellow blob was centered over Texas.

[gboudx]

Any idea what Steve is referring to?

Generous rains fell across the eastern half of north Texas overnight into the morning hours. Heaviest rain fell on the Navarro-Henderson county line where up to 7 inches is estimated to have fallen, and a wide swath of 1 to 3 inches generally along and east of I-35E/I-45.

Summer heat returns tomorrow with highs back into the low to mid 90s, but this time, the heat does not stay for long. Our next cold front arrives Friday night into Saturday bringing an even greater coverage of showers and storms. And I am just going to have to do a double-take on the data I am seeing for Sunday night into next Monday .... that just can't be true!

Stay tuned...

[dhweather]

Not sure what he's referring to? Not seeing anything impressive on Euro and GFS.

[Ntxw]

Any idea what Steve is referring to?

Generous rains fell across the eastern half of north Texas overnight into the morning hours. Heaviest rain fell on the Navarro-Henderson county line where up to 7 inches is estimated to have fallen, and a wide swath of 1 to 3 inches generally along and east of I-35E/I-45.

Summer heat returns tomorrow with highs back into the low to mid 90s, but this time, the heat does not stay for long. Our next cold front arrives Friday night into Saturday bringing an even greater coverage of showers and storms. And I am just going to have to do a double-take on the data I am seeing for Sunday night into next Monday .... that just can't be true!

Stay tuned...

Perhaps he is talking about the deep trof bowling ball slow moving low across the southern plains from the ECMWF with widespread rainfall. Would be several days of damp wet weather and quite cool/cold.

[TheProfessor]

How cold are we talking? 50s? 40s?

[ravyrn]

12z Euro


vs

18z GFS

[dhweather]

The good reverend Cavanaugh spreads the gospel of weather this morning in the FWD AFD:

ON SUNDAY...ABOUT HALF OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE
COLD FRONT WILL STALL OUT ACROSS NORTH OR CENTRAL TEXAS ON
SUNDAY...SO KEPT BROAD BRUSHED 20-30 POPS IN THE FORECAST AS A
RESULT. IF THE FRONT PUSHES SOUTH TO THE GULF COAST SATURDAY
EVENING...SUNDAY WILL BE DRY.


MONDAY...THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE COMPLETELY OUT OF PHASE. THE ECMWF
ADVERTISES A LARGE TROUGH AND A VERY DYNAMIC MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE
BRINGING ANOTHER ROUND OF WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE REGION. THE
GFS IS DRY WITH RIDGING ALOFT. THE CANADIAN ENSEMBLES WERE DIVIDED
ALMOST 50/50 INDICATING A SURFACE TEMPERATURE ANOMALY ANYWHERE
FROM -7 DEG C TO +6 DEG C ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS ON MONDAY. SO
ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE DOES NOT CURRENTLY FAVOR THE DETERMINISTIC GFS
OVER THE ECMWF...OR VICE-VERSA...AT THIS TIME. AS A RESULT...JUST
WENT WITH A BROAD BRUSHED 20 POP AS EITHER SOLUTION LOOKS EQUALLY
VALID AT THIS TIME.

CAVANAUGH

[Ntxw]

I don't buy the GFS at all, it is probably nuts. Yesterday it was trying to drive a large hurricane into Texas for the period mentioned, clearly it was smoking something. All but gone now meaning the 500mb flow it had was a joke. Severely -AO in the 3-5 sigma below with -NAO means the flow is being blocked. A deepening cyclone then would make sense since energy is forced to bundle between the ridges due to this blockage.

The GFS with the hurricane was a horrible idea, but it was the right idea (a deepening cyclone) in that sense. It's just not the hurricane, a mid latitude storm instead.

[Tireman4]

So, NTXW, what do you think the lows will be this weekend with our front? 40's? 50's? Highs...upper 70's?