Global model runs discussion

[blp]

Alyono, what is the deal with the Goes model. Is it initialized off the GFS like the FIM?

[SFLcane]

Something to keep any eye on for sure but still look very dry across not just the Caribbean but the entire Atlantic basin with only moderately strong areas of convection seen this evening.

But this month really favors the SW/W Caribbean for development from a climatology standpoint. Also I recall that Levi Cowan once mentioned that when you have a deep trough over Eastern North America like we have now, it can sometimes enhance an upper-level high over the SW/W Caribbean with the NW flow which would mean a favorable upper-level environment for genesis.

I notice the GFS right now has support from the NAVGEM which has trended towards development if you look at today's runs starting with the 00Z and even shows development starting around 5 days from now in the 18Z run from what looks like a tropical wave traversing westward over the Central Caribbean sea at around 75W longitude.

This...

[blp]

Starting to look at the Ukmet it is still early but it is showing energy in both the EPAC and Atlantic. I notice the trend has been for the energy to be more predominant on the Atlantic side.

[SFLcane]

[gatorcane]

Interesting GFS ensemble run. I notice the FIM continues to show development and shows the area lifting slowly NNW at 168 hours:

[SFLcane]

18z NCEP ensembles..

[TheStormExpert]

:uarrow: Interesting GFS ensemble run. I notice the FIM continues to show development and shows the area lifting slowly NNW at 168 hours:

Where can I see the full FIM runs?

[SFLcane]

FIM model->http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/Welcome.cgi

[floridasun78]

FIM model->http://fim.noaa.gov/FIM/Welcome.cgi

it have going into New Orleans

[Hurricaneman]

The 0zGFS now has cyclogenesis at 114hrs so that is drawing closer so now its something to really watch as the ECMWF is now finally on board but isn't sure based on its ensembles whether its on the Caribbean side or Pacific side yet so maybe in a day or 2 we will know more

the 0ZGFS now has a hurricane hitting Florida around Naples at 252 and heading straight north and that seems to be a constant with the GFS the last week or so with a hurricane striking somewhere in Florida whether right or wrong it bears watching

[weatherfanatic]

Dang the 00z GFS is crazy, huge hit from FL to Maine! IMO this thing is coming together, with a block setting up and a trough along with a -AO and things are going to get nasty come the 12-17th. Of course model Ucellini COULD be wrong but its not alone and its been coming up in time which is a good sign and the runs placement have not wavered a whole lot.

[SFLcane]

00z GFS continues with formidable cane into sfl..

[WeatherEmperor]

Can somebody post the 0Z Canadian and Navgem when they become available? Would like to see how they handle this Caribbean system compared to the Gfs

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[Alyono]

Alyono, what is the deal with the Goes model. Is it initialized off the GFS like the FIM?

of course it is initialized off of Model Uccelleni

[Alyono]

0Z CMC shifted development farther west in the EPAC, away from Central America

[LarryWx]

Mods, please delete this. Thanks.

[LarryWx]

A system forming in the SW Caribbean in mid October is a normal thing late in the season.What GFS shows is something forming in that area as I understand a cold Front will dip pretty far south around 10 days from now so maybe that model is right this time. Only problem is the long range.

New tally still mainly for entertainment for now: Including the just run 0Z Sunday GFS, a whopping 10 GFS runs in a row have shown TC genesis in the SW Caribbean ~10/10. Actually, the last couple (at least) have shown genesis of the very weak surface low closer to 10/8-9. So, that would be only 3-4 days out. Looking back at my posts, there have been a whopping 19+ runs since 9 days ago showing something similar with largely similar timing. So, you heard that right...a run from Fri 9/26 actually had a SW Caribbean genesis ~10/10 with a strengthening TC just E of Honduras on 10/12 on its 384 hour map, very similar to what the last 10 runs have shown! (see Luis's posted 384 hour map just above here). This lack of slippage is unlike the June horrible debacle and somewhat different from the ~9/20-2 false TC Gulf hit from 9 of 10 runs. Also, this is a more climo favored time for SW Caribbean development than just about any other time. Furthermore, the Euro ens. MJO forecast isn't unfavorable (it is neutral). The discussion of these runs might soon move out of the just for entertainment/record keeping soon if this keeps up for a few more runs and especially if the Euro were to give a little support like it did on yesterday's 0Z run.

Specifics of last five GFS runs fwiw:

- 0Z 10/4: hits FL Big Bend 10/18 and then well off NC 10/19.

- 6Z 10/4: hits near Tampa late 10/15 as TS and then skims just offshore GA/SC/NC on 10/16

- 12Z 10/4: hits SW FL early 10/15 as strong TS/weak 'cane, goes bit offshore SE, but then curls back in to skim NE coast 10/16

- 18Z 10/4: hits SW FL very late 10/15 as TS, goes offshore E/C FL, and then hooks right/stays well offshore rest of US E coast 10/16

- 0Z 10/5: hits SW FL early 10/15 as strong TS/weak 'cane, comes out but stays along NE FL/GA coasts late 10/15, and then moves NNE somewhat inland Carolinas northward to NE 10/16

[Hammy]

Euro develops a tropical storm in the central Atlantic in about a week on the latest run.

[jlauderdal]

00z GFS continues with formidable cane into sfl..

a model ucilleni south florida hit...its like bees on honey

if just 5% of the MU sofla hits panned out over the last 10 years I would be in financial ruins

dew point under 60 at MIA; now that is some real weather to be happy about

[cycloneye]

Well,despite all the noise from the models,NHC remains quiet.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN OCT 5 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Berg