2014 WPAC Season

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euro6208

Re: 2014 WPAC Season

#541 Postby euro6208 » Mon Sep 29, 2014 10:03 am

Image

GFS

Image

CMC

Yet another Marianas Typhoon in Vongfong...
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Re: 2014 WPAC Season

#542 Postby euro6208 » Tue Sep 30, 2014 10:04 am

Western Pacific Typhoon energy (ACE) up to 16 thru Sept 26 12z -- would be lowest since 1973 for month

Image

*In 1 minute sustained

Incredible...
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#543 Postby Ntxw » Tue Sep 30, 2014 10:50 pm

:uarrow: Well quiet no longer. Phanfone is a good candidate for those classic WPAC typhoon/super typhoon to be. With the MJO swinging around soon the lull is about over.
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Re: 2014 WPAC Season

#544 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 01, 2014 2:41 am

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Re: 2014 WPAC Season

#545 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 01, 2014 2:45 am

Image

Another Marianas Typhoon Nuri which is forecast to develop after Vongfong
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Re: 2014 WPAC Season

#546 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 03, 2014 12:10 am

00Z develops 2 more tropical cyclone...

First develops right behind our Tropical Storm 19W and doesn't do much...Just dissipates east of the Marianas...

Second develops in the SCS and becomes a typhoon at landfall in Vietnam...
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Re: 2014 WPAC Season

#547 Postby jaguarjace » Sat Oct 04, 2014 5:10 am

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Hudhud in the Bay of Bengal and possibly Nuri appearing in the South China Sea within the next 5 days.
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Re: 2014 WPAC Season

#548 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 04, 2014 5:54 am

Image

Additional development likely with more storms developing southeast of Guam due to coming Kelvin Wave...
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Re: 2014 WPAC Season

#549 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 04, 2014 10:14 am

I wonder if the WPAC will see the same type of explosive development that we saw last year. Beginning October to record breaking 170 knots Haiyan in November which saw 7 typhoons turn into major typhoons with 3 category 5's...

25 Super Typhoon-4 DANAS 03-08 OCT 125 4
26 Typhoon-3 NARI 09-15 OCT 105 3
27 Typhoon-4 WIPHA 10-15 OCT 115 4
28 Super Typhoon-5 FRANCISCO 16-25 OCT 140 5
29 Super Typhoon-5 LEKIMA 20-26 OCT 140 5
30 Typhoon-3 KROSA 29 OCT-04 NOV 100 3
31 Super Typhoon-5 HAIYAN 03-11 NOV 170 5
32 Tropical Storm THIRTY 03-06 NOV 35 -
33 Tropical Depression PODUL 14-15 NOV 25 -
34 Tropical Depression THIRTY 03-03 DEC 30 -

2014's storms...

Phanfone [likely a category 5] > Danas
Vongfong [predicted to become a category 4] > Nari
Nuri??? [EURO and GFS develops this in the SCS and quite a strong one in 5 days, same timeframe as Wipha from last year]
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Re: 2014 WPAC Season

#550 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Oct 06, 2014 12:56 am

Vongfong is currently underachieving just like Nari last year... what caught our attention around this time last year was the development of cyclone Phailin - 99B could be it's 2014 version... weird...
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euro6208

Re: 2014 WPAC Season

#551 Postby euro6208 » Mon Oct 06, 2014 12:36 pm

Latest EURO and GFS develops nothing but a kelvin wave that's now moving through the Indian Ocean could spawn the next storm, Nuri...
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Re: 2014 WPAC Season

#552 Postby euro6208 » Tue Oct 07, 2014 11:03 am

Despite being on an overall slow trend over the past years, WPAC non-stop continues to impress with many strong typhoons including Vongfong, a category 5 monster (likely the strongest this year too in any basin)...Unbelievable how monstrous these storms get in this part of the world even during slow years...too bad recon won't return anytime soon...
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Re: 2014 WPAC Season

#553 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 07, 2014 2:06 pm

What about having a 150kt SuperTyphoon? That is what Vongfong's intensity is at 18z Best Track of 10/7/14. Will it get close to Haiyan?
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Re: 2014 WPAC Season

#554 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 07, 2014 2:49 pm

cycloneye wrote:What about having a 150kt SuperTyphoon? That is what Vongfong's intensity is at 18z Best Track of 10/7/14. Will it get close to Haiyan?


WellI quoted myself because 18z Best Track updated with yes 155kts Strongest since Haiyan.
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Re: 2014 WPAC Season

#555 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 08, 2014 10:11 am

Now let's add Super Typhoon Vongfong to the +155 knots club to occur since 1952 in the WPAC...Amazing

1952258N18178 1952091718 160.0 13W:OLIVE
1952258N18178 1952091800 160.0 13W:OLIVE
1952296N06152 1952102600 160.0 20W:WILMA
1952296N06152 1952102606 160.0 20W:WILMA
1952363N07170 1952123112 160.0 28W:HESTER
1952363N07170 1952123118 160.0 28W:HESTER
1952363N07170 1953010100 160.0 28W:HESTER
1953219N08155 1953081118 160.0 08W:NINA
1953219N08155 1953081200 160.0 08W:NINA
1953219N08155 1953081206 160.0 08W:NINA
1953219N08155 1953081212 160.0 08W:NINA
1953219N08155 1953081218 160.0 08W:NINA
1953219N08155 1953081300 160.0 08W:NINA
1953219N08155 1953081306 160.0 08W:NINA
1953219N08155 1953081312 160.0 08W:NINA
1953219N08155 1953081318 160.0 08W:NINA
1953219N08155 1953081400 160.0 08W:NINA
1955346N06142 1955121512 180.0 22W:RUTH
1955346N06142 1955121518 165.0 22W:RUTH
1956207N13145 1956073000 155.0 06W:WANDA
1956207N13145 1956073006 160.0 06W:WANDA
1956207N13145 1956073012 155.0 06W:WANDA
1956207N13145 1956073018 155.0 06W:WANDA
1957311N06171 1957111606 160.0 20W:LOLA
1957311N06171 1957111612 160.0 20W:LOLA
1958143N06158 1958052818 155.0 02W:PHYLLIS
1958143N06158 1958052900 160.0 02W:PHYLLIS
1958240N08146 1958090112 160.0 13W:GRACE
1958240N08146 1958090118 165.0 13W:GRACE
1958240N08146 1958090200 165.0 13W:GRACE
1958240N08146 1958090206 160.0 13W:GRACE
1958263N13148 1958092406 160.0 15W:IDA
1958263N13148 1958092412 175.0 15W:IDA
1958263N13148 1958092418 175.0 15W:IDA
1958263N13148 1958092500 175.0 15W:IDA
1958263N13148 1958092506 175.0 15W:IDA
1958263N13148 1958092512 175.0 15W:IDA
1958263N13148 1958092518 160.0 15W:IDA
1959236N12139 1959082818 155.0 JOAN:JOAN(-)1
1959236N12139 1959082900 165.0 JOAN:JOAN(-)1
1959236N12139 1959082906 170.0 JOAN:JOAN(-)1
1959236N12139 1959082912 160.0 JOAN:JOAN(-)1
1959254N14148 1959091500 160.0 SARAH
1959254N14148 1959091506 165.0 SARAH
1959263N11160 1959092306 155.0 VERA
1959263N11160 1959092312 165.0 VERA
1959263N11160 1959092318 165.0 VERA
1959263N11160 1959092400 155.0 VERA
1959263N11160 1959092406 155.0 VERA
1959263N11160 1959092412 155.0 VERA
1959263N11160 1959092418 155.0 VERA
1959263N11160 1959092500 155.0 VERA
1961248N18155 1961091112 155.0 PAMELA
1961250N07173 1961091000 160.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091006 165.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091012 175.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091018 175.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091100 180.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091106 180.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091112 180.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091118 180.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091200 185.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091206 180.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091212 180.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091218 170.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091300 170.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091306 160.0 NANCY
1961250N07173 1961091312 160.0 NANCY
1961276N22152 1961100618 160.0 VIOLET
1961276N22152 1961100700 175.0 VIOLET
1961276N22152 1961100706 180.0 VIOLET
1961276N22152 1961100712 170.0 VIOLET
1962224N11151 1962081618 160.0 RUTH:SARAH
1962224N11151 1962081700 160.0 RUTH:SARAH
1962311N06154 1962110900 160.0 KAREN
1962311N06154 1962110906 160.0 KAREN
1962311N06154 1962110912 155.0 KAREN
1962311N06154 1962110918 155.0 KAREN
1962311N06154 1962111300 160.0 KAREN
1962311N06154 1962111306 160.0 KAREN
1964247N09159 1964090618 155.0 SALLY
1964247N09159 1964090700 165.0 SALLY
1964247N09159 1964090706 170.0 SALLY
1964247N09159 1964090712 165.0 SALLY
1964247N09159 1964090718 160.0 SALLY
1964247N09159 1964090800 160.0 SALLY
1964247N09159 1964090806 160.0 SALLY
1964247N09159 1964090812 160.0 SALLY
1964319N08141 1964111800 155.0 LOUISE:MARGE
1964319N08141 1964111806 165.0 LOUISE:MARGE
1964319N08141 1964111812 165.0 LOUISE:MARGE
1964319N08141 1964111818 160.0 LOUISE:MARGE
1964344N06153 1964121200 155.0 OPAL
1964344N06153 1964121206 160.0 OPAL
1964344N06153 1964121212 165.0 OPAL
1964344N06153 1964121218 170.0 OPAL
1964344N06153 1964121300 170.0 OPAL
1964344N06153 1964121306 170.0 OPAL
1964344N06153 1964121312 170.0 OPAL
1964344N06153 1964121318 170.0 OPAL
1964344N06153 1964121400 170.0 OPAL
1965161N09151 1965061706 160.0 DINAH
1966171N09151 1966062600 170.0 KIT
1966171N09151 1966062606 170.0 KIT
1966171N09151 1966062612 170.0 KIT
1967241N15170 1967090312 155.0 OPAL
1967283N11150 1967101418 160.0 CARLA
1967283N11150 1967101500 160.0 CARLA
1967283N11150 1967101506 155.0 CARLA
1971311N06141 1971111118 155.0 IRMA
1971311N06141 1971111200 155.0 IRMA
1973274N10137 1973100600 160.0 NORA
1975319N08146 1975111912 160.0 JUNE
1979275N05159 1979101200 160.0 TIP
1979275N05159 1979101206 165.0 TIP
1979275N05159 1979101212 165.0 TIP
1979275N05159 1979101218 155.0 TIP
1984294N04163 1984102612 155.0 VANESSA

Recon ends in 1987

1992277N16140 1992101318 155.0 YVETTE
1992277N16140 1992101400 155.0 YVETTE
1992318N06182 1992112018 155.0 GAY
1992318N06182 1992112100 160.0 GAY
1992318N06182 1992112106 155.0 GAY
1995293N05177 1995110100 155.0 ANGELA
1995293N05177 1995110106 155.0 ANGELA
1995293N05177 1995110112 155.0 ANGELA
1995293N05177 1995110118 155.0 ANGELA
1995293N05177 1995110200 155.0 ANGELA
1995293N05177 1995110206 155.0 ANGELA
1995293N05177 1995110212 155.0 ANGELA
1997283N07177 1997101712 155.0 IVAN
1997283N07177 1997101718 160.0 IVAN
1997284N04179 1997101706 160.0 JOAN
1997284N04179 1997101712 160.0 JOAN
1997299N07169 1997110112 155.0 KEITH:KETTH
1997299N07169 1997110218 155.0 KEITH:KETTH
1997333N06194 1997121718 155.0 PAKA:PAKA
1997333N06194 1997121800 160.0 PAKA:PAKA
1998281N11151 1998101312 155.0 ZEB
1998281N11151 1998101318 155.0 ZEB
1998281N11151 1998101400 155.0 ZEB
2000125N06136 2000050918 155.0 DAMRCY:DAMREY
2001347N04162 2001122300 155.0 FAXAI
2004164N06139 2004061606 155.0 DIANMU
2004164N06139 2004061612 155.0 DIANMU
2004164N06139 2004061618 155.0 DIANMU
2004230N09172 2004082300 155.0 CHABA
2004230N09172 2004082306 155.0 CHABA
2004230N09172 2004082312 155.0 CHABA
2004230N09172 2004082318 155.0 CHABA
2004230N09172 2004082400 155.0 CHABA
2004230N09172 2004082418 155.0 CHABA
2009325N06148 2009112512 155.0 NIDA
2009325N06148 2009112518 155.0 NIDA
2010285N13145 2010101712 160.0 MEGI (Should be 165 knots based on recon. Flight level winds supported surface winds of 200 mph sustained)
2010285N13145 2010101718 155.0 MEGI
2012 Sanba 155.0
2013 Haiyan 170.0 (8.0 dvorak, strongest storm in the world)
2014 Vongfong 155.0

Already FOUR since 2010 including 2 record breaking typhoons that maxed out between 165 to 180 knots...Megi and Haiyan...
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Re: 2014 WPAC Season

#556 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 08, 2014 10:26 am

This is a very exclusive club of strongest Typhoons in the past year and Vongfong is there.

Image
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euro6208

Re: 2014 WPAC Season

#557 Postby euro6208 » Wed Oct 08, 2014 10:32 am

cycloneye wrote:This is a very exclusive club of strongest Typhoons in the past year and Vongfong is there.



Vongfong looks stronger than Rammasun and Genevieve...
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euro6208

Re: 2014 WPAC Season

#558 Postby euro6208 » Fri Oct 10, 2014 7:26 am

Image

Tropical storm Nuri at long range in last week of October...
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Re: 2014 WPAC Season

#559 Postby euro6208 » Sat Oct 11, 2014 9:08 am

Image
Image

From long range to short range...

Nuri will be here sooner...
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#560 Postby xtyphooncyclonex » Sat Oct 11, 2014 7:17 pm

Latest run even perhaps stronger.. Increasing consistency
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