Texas Fall-2014

[weatherdude1108]

It's all cyclic and North Texas will have more heavy rain events, especially in this weather pattern. Remember when this happened?

http://oi62.tinypic.com/35a9jbm.jpg

I do. That's unfortunately part of the vicious cycle - we finally do get significant rain and get to the point water will start to run off, but then it doesn't significantly rain again for weeks or months, so the soil dries back out.

We started out 2014 with one of the top 5 driest Jan/Feb/Mar on record.

Stage 4 water conservation isn't far off.

I hear you on that one. The past several years have been that way down here. It rains heavily to the point of finally running off into the watershed. Then, like you mentioned, it doesn't rain for weeks or months and the soil dries out (cycle repeat...). Oh how I wish the trend would change. It looks like after this Sunday, there is a period of dry weather at least through next Thursday. Let's just hope the dry doesn't last another couple weeks/months.

[horselattitudesfarm]

Flooding in fall 2 yrs in a row shows up in the Lake Travis elevation graph. Look how similar the curves are:

[horselattitudesfarm]

And Lake Ray Hubbard is at its lowest level in its history. We are in a death grip of a four year hydrological drought per KFWD, and while I would like to think it will end some day, that day continues to be extremely evasive.

Right, and it's never going to rain again there and the lake will dry up to nothing. I would suggest the populous move to the southeastern states where there's tons of rain.

Yup, that's what I did. No sprinklers and lush green plants and it rains like clockwork every week here in the Tarheel state Too bad I discovered I have a bad mold allergy. So now: Lush green beauty = stopped up nose+scratchy throat + lethargy. Luckily, the allergy shots I'm getting are taking care of it. One of the cool things I get to witness here though is the Wedging scenario where cool air gets backed up onto the eastern side of the Appalachians when there is a big high in the northeast: This always spells cool and rainy for us in the summertime. Its also cool to see how the mountains generate Gravity Waves out onto the Piedmont. They might be old and they might be worn down, but the mountains are still big enough to affect our weather.

[ravyrn]

Porta, I've just changed my sig from "Ravyrn has gone on the record, 5/9/14, stating he will dismantle the Omega Block situated over Austin..." I'm just curious though, since May 9th, how has Austin's rainfall compared to average rates. Is there some website to plug this date in and look at the departures from average?

Yes indeed what good work you have done!

Let me do some research and I'll post later today.

OK ravyrn, since May 9, 2014, Camp Mabry (KATT) is 7.57 inches above normal rainfall. Austin Bergstrom International (AUS) is 1.23 inches above normal rainfall.

Not too shabby with the Omega Block dismantled! If only we could get those highland lakes filled back up to capacity for you folks down that way!

[vbhoutex]

Yes this was a very very wet summer in Houston. I agree, take out any tropical activity and statistically its prolly the wettest in 30 years for me El Nino? Maybe i dont know. One thing i noticed too, even our mornings were always very cloudy. Many times it would be pretty in the morning but the clouds always moved in quickly.

Lets hope we can get moisture with the cold this year!

For sure on the moisture(snow) with the cold! I think the S and SW areas of the metro have had substantially more rain than we have on the W and NW sides this year because I have had to water extensively to keep my new front yard alive. That will stop though since I am getting a sprinkler system installed today.

[Portastorm]

Flooding in fall 2 yrs in a row shows up in the Lake Travis elevation graph. Look how similar the curves are:

(image deleted for space purposes)

Thanks for sharing that graph. Quite interesting and it matches up perfectly to what has happened here. Last fall in October we had two significant rain events in portions of the Austin metro area. Earlier this spring we had some good rains and now we're seeing them again. Each time we see Travis' level on the uptick as a result. Fortunately the rains yesterday were over the Hill Country and we need more of that to help the Highland Lakes. Much of what fell the last few days occurred in the west and south portions of Travis County and that stuff will merely make the rice farmers happy between here and the coast. It won't help the Highland Lakes much at all.

[Ptarmigan]

Yes this was a very very wet summer in Houston. I agree, take out any tropical activity and statistically its prolly the wettest in 30 years for me El Nino? Maybe i dont know. One thing i noticed too, even our mornings were always very cloudy. Many times it would be pretty in the morning but the clouds always moved in quickly.

Lets hope we can get moisture with the cold this year!

Could be El Nino. However, I have seen El Nino summers that are dry like Summer 1997.

[somethingfunny]

I just saw a monarch butterfly - unless this one was really lost they're coming very early this year.

[TheProfessor]

funny you mentioned that, there are trees already going through foliage here

[gpsnowman]

:uarrow: funny you mentioned that, there are trees already going through foliage here

The lovely Mrs. Gpsnowman mentioned the same thing to me while taking a walk, that she thought she saw some trees beginning to change colors. I was skeptical thinking it was too early for color changes. I put it down as already dead leaves or a dying tree. Plenty of those due to drought and heat. But my backyard oaks have been producing some very large acorns for this time of year. Some have already begun to drop in the yard. Quite early for this to be happening. A post earlier mentioned Monarch butterflies. Saw one today in the backyard. The long trek from Canada to Michoacán Mexico has begun. I always enjoy witnessing the butterflies because my wife and I were married in Morelia, Michoacán, near where the butterflies reach the final destination before the voyage back north to Canada. Signs of things to come? Maybe. Bring on the snow and cold!!

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: funny you mentioned that, there are trees already going through foliage here

The lovely Mrs. Gpsnowman mentioned the same thing to me while taking a walk, that she thought she saw some trees beginning to change colors. I was skeptical thinking it was too early for color changes. I put it down as already dead leaves or a dying tree. Plenty of those due to drought and heat. But my backyard oaks have been producing some very large acorns for this time of year. Some have already begun to drop in the yard. Quite early for this to be happening. A post earlier mentioned Monarch butterflies. Saw one today in the backyard. The long trek from Canada to Michoacán Mexico has begun. I always enjoy witnessing the butterflies because my wife and I were married in Morelia, Michoacán, near where the butterflies reach the final destination before the voyage back north to Canada. Signs of things to come? Maybe. Bring on the snow and cold!!

I have noticed this with the foliage too. Not just from dead leaves but actual color changing on some. The changing of colors is driven by sunlight but the intensity and more vivid yellows and oranges start showing up better when the weather is colder vs warmer falls. Last year had very bright colors compared to recent years.

Speaking of sunlight, Autumnal Equinox is Monday night . Days start getting shorter than nights, the Arctic is all but going into perpetual darkness, snow cover beginning to Advance into the continents.

[vbhoutex]

:uarrow: funny you mentioned that, there are trees already going through foliage here

The lovely Mrs. Gpsnowman mentioned the same thing to me while taking a walk, that she thought she saw some trees beginning to change colors. I was skeptical thinking it was too early for color changes. I put it down as already dead leaves or a dying tree. Plenty of those due to drought and heat. But my backyard oaks have been producing some very large acorns for this time of year. Some have already begun to drop in the yard. Quite early for this to be happening. A post earlier mentioned Monarch butterflies. Saw one today in the backyard. The long trek from Canada to Michoacán Mexico has begun. I always enjoy witnessing the butterflies because my wife and I were married in Morelia, Michoacán, near where the butterflies reach the final destination before the voyage back north to Canada. Signs of things to come? Maybe. Bring on the snow and cold!!

No foliage changes that I have noticed in Houston, but for sure on the size and amount of acorns. It is almost dangerous in my backyard! I say BRING IT ON!!!

[ravyrn]

Plenty of those due to drought and heat.

Heat? gpsnowman, it's been cooler in my neck of the woods than it has been in yours, but I am pretty sure you've have a fairly mild summer compared to the average (or at least the norm of 2011-2013). I don't reckon we can blame any dead trees on heat after this awesome summer!

[Tireman4]

Speaking of sunlight, Autumnal Equinox is Monday night . Days start getting shorter than nights, the Arctic is all but going into perpetual darkness, snow cover beginning to Advance into the continents.

Enough to drive Heat Misers into hibernation. Oh what a Summer he has had. NOT!! Bring on the snow, the cold, the blizzards..it is fun times in the CONUS coming up!!!!

[wxman57]

Enough to drive Heat Misers into hibernation. Oh what a Summer he has had. NOT!! Bring on the snow, the cold, the blizzards..it is fun times in the CONUS coming up!!!!

Yes, it is a sad time of the year, Tireman4. But it won't be long until we're talking about the spring equinox and days getting longer and hotter...

[dhweather]

The foliage changes could very well be due to drought, the last several years have been extremely tough on trees in Texas. 300 million trees killed by drought in 2011. https://stateimpact.npr.org/texas/2012/ ... s-drought/

[Ptarmigan]

Enough to drive Heat Misers into hibernation. Oh what a Summer he has had. NOT!! Bring on the snow, the cold, the blizzards..it is fun times in the CONUS coming up!!!!

Yes, it is a sad time of the year, Tireman4. But it won't be long until we're talking about the spring equinox and days getting longer and hotter...

Look on the bright side, once Winter Solstice comes, days get longer. Of course with days getting shorter means more starwatching for me.

[dhweather]

From the FWD afternoon discussion:

A STAGNANT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN OVER NORTH AMERICA THROUGH NEXT
WEEKEND MEANS WE WILL SEE TRANQUIL WEATHER PREVAIL FOR SEVERAL
DAYS BEHIND THE FRONT. A DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE
AREA WITH GENERALLY CLEAR SKIES AND LIGHT WINDS. THIS WILL ALLOW
FOR DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING WITH SOME PLEASANTLY COOL OVERNIGHT
LOWS IN THE UPPER 50S TO MID 60S. HIGH TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN
ON THE WARM SIDE...GENERALLY TOPPING OUT IN THE 80S...BUT
MODERATING TO NEAR 90 BY NEXT WEEKEND.

[Ntxw]

Lowering AAM shows not a lot of active weather for for 3-5 days across the CONUS. Time to bust out those horse drawn stagecoaches and migrate west, Texas becoming uninhabitable zone . Oklahoma, Kansas too!

[TheProfessor]

I've been living at my house for 11 years and I have 1 tree in my front yard. This is the first time ever that that tree is producing acorns, What does that mean?