Texas Fall-2014

[Portastorm]

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
904 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

TXZ171>173-192>194-190500-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LLANO...BURNET...GEORGETOWN...AUSTIN...
BASTROP...GIDDINGS
904 PM CDT THU SEP 18 2014

...POSSIBLE MINOR FLOODING CONTINUES THROUGH LATE TONIGHT...

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN NEW BRAUNFELS IS TRACKING
A WIDE AREA OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL OVER THE NORTHEAST CORNER
OF SOUTH-CENTRAL TEXAS. MOVEMENT OF THE PRECIPITATION IS TO THE
EAST-SOUTHEAST AT AROUND 10 MPH.

THIS MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL WILL PASS OVER RAIN-SATURATED SOILS
OF LLANO...BURNET...WILLIAMSON...TRAVIS...BASTROP...AND LEE COUNTIES
THROUGH THE NEXT FEW HOURS. THIS AREA HAS ALREADY EXPERIENCED FLASH
FLOODING DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS...AND ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING
REMAINS POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WHERE CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE
CURRENTLY SUBSIDING...BUT MAY RISE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS
IF HEAVY RAINFALL PASSES OVER THEM.

MOTORISTS ARE URGED TO DRIVE WITH EXTREME CAUTION TONIGHT IN THE
VICINITY OF CREEKS...STREAMS...AND LOW WATER CROSSINGS...WHERE
FLOODING ON THE ROAD IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE DUE TO THE DARKNESS.
REMEMBER...IF YOU ENCOUNTER WATER OVER THE ROAD...TURN AROUND...
DONT DROWN.

[somethingfunny]

It's all cyclic and North Texas will have more heavy rain events, especially in this weather pattern. Remember when this happened?

[TheProfessor]

I remember when that happened, and I was upset because I only got half an inch of rain.

[ravyrn]

Porta, I've just changed my sig from "Ravyrn has gone on the record, 5/9/14, stating he will dismantle the Omega Block situated over Austin..." I'm just curious though, since May 9th, how has Austin's rainfall compared to average rates. Is there some website to plug this date in and look at the departures from average?

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Houston area folks, this next batch of storms or shield of rain, whatever, will not be pretty.

Slow moving too. Apparently all ground is saturated. Turn around dont drown!

[Portastorm]

Porta, I've just changed my sig from "Ravyrn has gone on the record, 5/9/14, stating he will dismantle the Omega Block situated over Austin..." I'm just curious though, since May 9th, how has Austin's rainfall compared to average rates. Is there some website to plug this date in and look at the departures from average?

Yes indeed what good work you have done!

Let me do some research and I'll post later today.

[weatherdude1108]

Even with impressive, 3-8-inch flooding rain totals over the basin, this just illustrates the severity of the multi-year hydrologic drought we are going through in central Texas. Ok, my turn to be emotional. So frustrating!

Current Operations and Conditions
Last Update: 9/19/2014 7:27 AM
Another round of scattered showers developed over the Colorado River watershed yesterday afternoon and in to this morning. Some of these storms have produced intense rainfall and some impressive 24-hour totals but the rains have not translated into any significant stream flow rises anywhere in the basin.

http://hydromet.lcra.org/riverreport/report.aspx

[vbhoutex]

Houston area folks, this next batch of storms or shield of rain, whatever, will not be pretty.

Slow moving too. Apparently all ground is saturated. Turn around dont drown!

FF warnings all over Houston. Heavy rains have moved in, especially S of I-10. I have had 5" of rain in the last two days.

[texas1836]

Houston area folks, this next batch of storms or shield of rain, whatever, will not be pretty.

Slow moving too. Apparently all ground is saturated. Turn around dont drown!

FF warnings all over Houston. Heavy rains have moved in, especially S of I-10. I have had 5" of rain in the last two days.

I know this much rain all at once can be dangerous, but I am a bit jealous up here in McKinney. We've seen the possible threat of rain but nothing has panned out. Be safe down there and watch the low crossings.

[srainhoutx]

Just dumped 5.96 inches of rain out of the gauge for the last 24 hours at my house in NW Harris County. I've had enough rain now.

[Tireman4]

Again, continuous rain in Humble. It will take awhile for this portion to clear out. I am hearing rumblings of redevelopment in the afternoon. The soccer game for our little tyke at 2 pm on Saturday "aint" gonna happen. Those fields are notorious for lack of drainage. I am sure our game will be rescheduled for November 18.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
643 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.DISCUSSION...
SEE AVIATION FOR 12Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS MORNING THANKS TO A
BOUNDARY AT 850MB ALONG WITH PLENTY OF MOISTURE AS PWATS ARE
AROUND 2.20". HIGH RES MODELS SHOWING PRECIP CONTINUING THIS
MORNING WITH SOME REDEVELOPMENT IN THE AFTERNOON. GFS AND ECMWF
BOTH SHOW REDEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON. 23

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 452 AM CDT FRI SEP 19 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED QUICKLY AROUND 330 AM
AND HAVE CONTINUED TO EXPAND AND INTENSIFY. STORMS ARE LINING UP
FROM AROUND COLLEGE STATION ACROSS MONTGOMERY COUNTY AND ANOTHER
LINE ACROSS BRENHAM TO SW HARRIS TO GALVESTON. THESE STORMS APPEAR
TO BE FOCUSING ALONG THE 850-700 TROUGH AXIS AND MOISTURE IS IN
ABUNDANCE WITH GPS DATA SHOWING 2.4" PW AT HOUSTON AND MODEL
SOUNDING ARE PROGGING VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. HAVE EXPANDED THE FLOOD WATCH AND EXTENDED
IT TO 10 PM THOUGH BY 7 PM AM EXPECTING STORMS TO BE WEAKENING.
OF NOTE THE TEXAS TECH WRF ENSEMBLE PAINTS A VERY WET PATTERN FOR
MUCH OF THE AREA FROM COLLEGE STATION TO HUNTSVILLE AND AROUND THE
HOUSTON METRO AREA. DO HAVE SOME CONCERNS THAT BREAKS IN THE
CLOUDS TODAY COULD DRIVE UP TEMPERATURE AND DRAMATICALLY INCREASE
THE INSTABILITY. BASED ON YESTERDAYS MINIMAL DIURANAL TEMPERATURE
RANGES HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES TODAY AND THEY MAY NEED FURTHER
SHRINKING.

AS RIDGING SETTLES INTO LOWER MS VALLEY SATURDAY DRIER AIR FIRST
IN THE MID LEVELS AND EVENTUALLY THE LOWER LEVELS SPREADS INTO THE
AREA FROM THE EAST AND RAIN CHANCES SHIFT SOUTHWESTWARD AND FALL
OFF DRAMATICALLY FROM TODAYS NUMBERS. A SHOT OF DRIER AIR PUSHES
IN WITH THE NEXT FRONT AND BY MIDWEEK VERY PLEASANT WEATHER SHOULD
BE ON TAP.
45

MARINE...
ONSHORE WINDS WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT OVER THE WATERS TODAY
THANKS TO A WEAK PRESSURE GRADIENT. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO BACK SUNDAY
AND TURN EASTERLY AS THE NEXT WEAK COLD FONT APPROACHES. WEEKEND
MARINERS CAN EXPECT SLIGHTLY ELEVATED SEA HEIGHTS DUE TO THE
PROLONGED EASTERLY FETCH. A SECONDARY SURGE OF UPPER LEVEL ENERGY
WILL PUSH THE COLD FRONT SLIGHTLY FURTHER SOUTH ON MONDAY BUT IT
WILL STILL NOT MAKE IT. EAST WINDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND
AND GRADUALLY STRENGTHEN TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK AS THE PRESSURE
GRADIENT TIGHTENS. A PERSISTENT EASTERLY FETCH WILL ALLOW TIDE
LEVELS TO SLOWLY INCREASE THROUGH THE WEEK. 23

[Portastorm]

Porta, I've just changed my sig from "Ravyrn has gone on the record, 5/9/14, stating he will dismantle the Omega Block situated over Austin..." I'm just curious though, since May 9th, how has Austin's rainfall compared to average rates. Is there some website to plug this date in and look at the departures from average?

Yes indeed what good work you have done!

Let me do some research and I'll post later today.

OK ravyrn, since May 9, 2014, Camp Mabry (KATT) is 7.57 inches above normal rainfall. Austin Bergstrom International (AUS) is 1.23 inches above normal rainfall.

[Portastorm]

Just dumped 5.96 inches of rain out of the gauge for the last 24 hours at my house in NW Harris County. I've had enough rain now.

With more on the way for y'all ... in this past week the Portastorm Weather Center in wet southwest Travis County has recorded a little more than 9 inches of rain. Unbelievable!

[wxman57]

This is definitely the wettest summer I've ever experienced in my 34 years in Houston. Had a not-as-wet June after over 10" in may then 8" in July, 9" in August and who knows how much by the end of September. I'm ready for some warm sunshine now...

[Ntxw]

Just dumped 5.96 inches of rain out of the gauge for the last 24 hours at my house in NW Harris County. I've had enough rain now.

With more on the way for y'all ... in this past week the Portastorm Weather Center in wet southwest Travis County has recorded a little more than 9 inches of rain. Unbelievable!

That rise recently in AAM and global winds shift to El Nino state sure payed dividends for you sir

[weatherdude1108]

Just dumped 5.96 inches of rain out of the gauge for the last 24 hours at my house in NW Harris County. I've had enough rain now.

With more on the way for y'all ... in this past week the Portastorm Weather Center in wet southwest Travis County has recorded a little more than 9 inches of rain. Unbelievable!

That rise recently in AAM and global winds shift to El Nino state sure payed dividends for you sir

This past week, 5.55 inches of rain fell at the casa weatherdude. You beat me Porta sir!
All I know is the half inch of rain I got this morning either puddled, or ran off the yard. My area can't soak in anymore water right now.

[TeamPlayersBlue]

Yes this was a very very wet summer in Houston. I agree, take out any tropical activity and statistically its prolly the wettest in 30 years for me El Nino? Maybe i dont know. One thing i noticed too, even our mornings were always very cloudy. Many times it would be pretty in the morning but the clouds always moved in quickly.

Lets hope we can get moisture with the cold this year!

[davidiowx]

Lets hope we can get moisture with the cold this year!

This!!

[TheProfessor]

I hope late fall and winter make up for the Summer, because other than the 2 inches I got in August the Summer was pretty disappointing rain wise for me, especially late May and June. I'm almost to the point to where I don't care how it comes down.

[dhweather]

It's all cyclic and North Texas will have more heavy rain events, especially in this weather pattern. Remember when this happened?

I do. That's unfortunately part of the vicious cycle - we finally do get significant rain and get to the point water will start to run off, but then it doesn't significantly rain again for weeks or months, so the soil dries back out.

We started out 2014 with one of the top 5 driest Jan/Feb/Mar on record.

Stage 4 water conservation isn't far off.