Texas Fall-2014

[weatherdude1108]

May be a frog-strangling few days.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
501 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EXPECTED AND MINOR FLOODING POSSIBLEACROSS PARTS OF SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY

A TROPICAL AIRMASS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS TODAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM EASTERN
PACIFIC TROPICAL CYCLONE ODILE AND LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME MORE
NUMEROUS DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS WITH SURFACE HEATING. EVEN
THOUGH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL TEND TO DECREASE AT NIGHT
WITH LOSS OF HEATING

EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS SINCE THE AIRMASS WILL REMAIN MOIST. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS EXPECTED WITH ISOLATED RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES POSSIBLE WHICH MAY CAUSE MINOR URBAN AND FLASH FLOODING.

HOWEVER AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED.

[Tireman4]

From HGX AFD this morning...:

FXUS64 KHGX 170946
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
446 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.DISCUSSION...
NOT A LOT OF CHANGES WITH THE GOING FCST OF CONTINUED RAINS FOR
TODAY/TOMORROW. VERY HIGH PWS NOTED OVER THE REGION (~2.3") AND
NOT EXPECTING THAT WE WILL NEED A LOT OF HEATING FOR PCPN DEVEL-
OPMENT TO START AGAIN LATER THIS MORNING/AFTN. AS THIS MOISTURE
LINGERS INTO TOMORROW WE MAY HAVE THE REMNANTS OF ODILE TO DEAL
WITH AS WELL. WILL LIKELY KEEP WITH AVG RAINFALL TOTALS FROM .5
TO 1`...ISO 3-4" TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT.

RAIN CHANCES TO DECREASE SOME BY FRI (ON INTO THE WEEKEND) WITH
WEAK UPPER RIDGING BUILDING IN BEHIND THE UPPER TROF (ODILE REM-
NANTS). HOWEVER WILL BE KEEPING ISO/SCT POPS IN FOR THIS PERIOD
AS THE DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE LINGERS OVER THE AREA. LONG RANGE
MODELS KEEPING WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT AOA MON...BUT
WITH VARYING DEGREES OF STRENGTH. ECMWF KEEPING ITS FROPA A BIT
MORE ROBUST THAN GFS ATTM...BUT GIVEN THE MORE CONSISTENT PROGS
OF A FAIRLY DEEP N/NWLY FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LEANING MORE TOWARDS
THE ECMWF FOR THIS TIME FRAME. 41

&&

.MARINE...
A FEW SHOWERS AROUND GALVESTON BAY MOVING SOUTHEAST AND A FEW
SHOWERS DEVELOPING AROUND MATAGORDA BAY AND MOVING NORTH. WEAK MID
LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN GULF APPEARS TO BE DICTATING MOTION
FOR NOW BUT AS THE RIDGING MOVES WEST EXPECT THAT WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL TRACK FROM NW TO SE THROUGH SETX AND INTO THE
COASTAL WATERS COMBINING WITH DAYTIME HEATING TO INCREASE
COVERAGE. LIGHT WINDS TYPICALLY IN THE 7-12 KNOT RANGE WILL
PREVAIL FROM THE SOUTH. MAY HAVE A CLUSTER TO DEAL WITH OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS TOMORROW MORNING AS NW FLOW ALOFT INTERACTS WITH
PUSH OF DRIER AIR INTO LA AND MOIST AXIS LINES UP BENEATH THE
TRACK OF THE DISTURBANCES COMING IN NW. AM FAVORING THE ECMWF FOR
THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ARRIVING LATE MONDAY/TUESDAY.
45

&&

.AVIATION...
MESSY WX ACROSS THE REGION. LINE OF LOW CLOUDS IFR/VLIFR FROM
6R3- CXO-11R WITH HIGH CLOUDS SOUTH OF THE LINE. SOME DEVELOPMENT
SOUTHWARD SEEMS POSSIBLE BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW SO FOR NOW WILL
KEEP IAH VFR. SHOWERS SHOULD DEVELOP AS TEMPERATURES RISE INTO THE
LOWER 80S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TERMINALS THEN EXPAND NORTHWARD
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SLOW MOVING STORMS WILL POSE A THREAT OF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS BUT IS HARD TO TELL IF ONE OF THE AIRPORTS IS
FAVORED FOR GETTING WHACKED. FOR NOW WILL JUST KEEP A TEMPO GOING
FOR ROUGHLY 17-21Z BUT NEEDLESS TO SAY IFR VISBY MAY DEVELOP WITH
HEAVY DOWNPOURS. STORMS MAY BE SLOWER TO DEPART THAN THEY DID THIS
EVENING AND MOST MODELS KEEP IT ACTIVE THROUGH 01-03Z THURSDAY.
45

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 90 75 86 72 90 / 60 30 60 30 40
HOUSTON (IAH) 89 74 86 73 89 / 60 30 60 30 50
GALVESTON (GLS) 87 79 85 78 87 / 60 40 60 30 50

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...99

[Portastorm]

Portions of West and Central Texas are now considered at risk for excessive rainfall:

[Tireman4]

HGX AFD Mid Morning Update:

000
FXUS64 KHGX 171607
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1107 AM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
AFTER MORNING COLLABORATION WITH WPC...THERE HAS BEEN AN ONGOING
ADJUSTMENT OF OUR POPS/WX/QPF GRIDS. THE MAIN THEME IS FOR THE
THREAT OF MORE AREA-WIDE HEAVY RAINFALL LEADING TO FLOODING. THE
CLUSTERS THAT HAVE PASSED ACROSS NORTH-NORTHWEST HARRIS COUNTY HAVE
DROPPED LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN IN A SHORT AMOUNT OF TIME...WITH AN
EXAMPLE OF AN INCH WITHIN 15 MINUTES AT THE CYPRESS CREEK AT FM
249 HCFCD RAIN GAUGE. CLUSTERS OF SLOW-MOVING SHOWERS AND STORMS
FORMING WITHIN A HIGHLY MOIST TROPICAL-IN-NATURE AIR MASS HAVE THE
POTENTIAL OF PUTTING DOWN HIGH RAINFALL AMOUNTS/RATES OVER THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. FFG HAS HOURLY RATES OF TWO TO THREE INCHES
LEADING TO FLOODING CONCERNS...THREE TO FOUR INCH AMOUNTS OVER 3
TO 6 HOURS WILL SIGNIFICANTLY HEIGHTEN THE FLOOD THREAT...AS WELL.
IN GENERAL...RECENT HIGH RAINFALL RATES/HIGHER RELATIVE-VOLUMETRIC
SOIL CONTENT VALUES RESIDE OVER THOSE COUNTIES EAST AND SOUTHWEST
OF THE CITY SO...ALONG WITH HOUSTON METRO/SUBURBS...THESE WILL BE
THE AREAS THAT WILL MOST LIKELY EXPERIENCE FLOODING ISSUES. POINTS
SURROUNDING THESE LOCATIONS CAN HANDLE MORE RAINFALL...BUT WITH
THESE RECENTLY HIGH HOURLY RAINFALL RATES OF BETWEEN A HALF OF AN
INCH TO NEAR NEAR TWO INCHES...ANY COMMUNITY COULD BE IN THE HAT
IN DEALING WITH (FLASH) FLOODING. THE REST OF THE FORECAST WILL
REMAIN UNCHANGED...OVERCAST WITH AFTERNOON TEMPERATURE EXTREMA IN
THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH MORNING READINGS FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE
70S. 31

[Ntxw]

Polo should become a Hurricane later today or early tomorrow. More mid level moisture streaming up.





October is EPAC recurve month. In other news, looks like Fung Wong in the making (typhoon perhaps?) in the WPAC, re-curve law

[KatDaddy]

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1241 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-181745-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.A.0001.140917T1741Z-140919T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO-FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-MADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ALVIN...ANAHUAC...ANGLETON...BAY CITY...
BELLVILLE...BRENHAM...BROOKSHIRE...BRYAN...CALDWELL...CLEVELAND...
COLDSPRING...COLLEGE STATION...COLUMBUS...CONROE...CORRIGAN...
CROCKETT...DAYTON...EAGLE LAKE...EDNA...EL CAMPO...FREEPORT...
FRIENDSWOOD...GALVESTON...GROVETON...HEMPSTEAD...HOUSTON...
HUMBLE...HUNTSVILLE...KATY...LAKE JACKSON...LAKE SOMERVILLE...
LEAGUE CITY...LIBERTY...LIVINGSTON...MADISONVILLE...
MISSOURI CITY...MONT BELVIEU...NAVASOTA...ONALASKA...PALACIOS...
PASADENA...PEARLAND...PIERCE...PRAIRIE VIEW...RICHMOND...
ROSENBERG...SEALY...SHEPHERD...SUGAR LAND...TEXAS CITY...
THE WOODLANDS...TOMBALL...TRINITY...WEIMAR...WHARTON...WILLIS...
WINNIE
1241 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HOUSTON/GALVESTON HAS ISSUED A

* FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...INCLUDING THE
FOLLOWING COUNTIES...AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...
CHAMBERS...COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...
HARRIS...HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...WALLER...
WASHINGTON AND WHARTON.

* THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING

* A HIGHLY MOISTENED TROPICAL AIR MASS...WITH SLOW CELL MOVEMENT
OVER REGIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY RECEIVED AN AVERAGE 1 TO 2 INCH
RAINFALL TOTALS IN RECENT DAYS. SHORT DURATION RAIN RATES COULD
BE HIGH ENOUGH IN THE STRONGER SLOWER MOVING CELL CLUSTERS TO
QUICKLY CREATE FLOODING SCENARIOS. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE BETWEEN 1 TO 3 INCHES THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING...WITH
LOCALIZED 5 TO 7 INCH AMOUNTS.

* COMMUNITIES THAT RECEIVE GREATER THAN 2 TO 3 INCHES OF HOURLY
RAINFALL HAVE A HIGH CHANCE OF EXPERIENCING FLOODING. GREATER
THAN 4 INCH 6 HOURLY RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY CREATE FLOODING
ISSUES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ON
CURRENT FORECASTS.

YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLE
FLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BE
PREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP.

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO
CROSS SAFELY. VEHICLES CAUGHT IN RISING WATER SHOULD BE ABANDONED
QUICKLY. IF YOUR VEHICLE STALLS...ABANDON IT AND SEEK HIGHER
GROUND IMMEDIATELY. RAPIDLY RISING WATER MAY ENGULF YOUR VEHICLE
AND ITS OCCUPANTS AND SWEEP THEM AWAY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN!

[Tireman4]

Another update from HGX:

00
FXUS64 KHGX 171749
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1249 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

.UPDATE...
AFTER ASSESSING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOUR SITUATION...HAVE DECIDED TO
ISSUE A FLOOD WATCH FOR THE ENTIRE CWA THROUGH TOMORROW EVENING.
MANY OF THE METEOROLOGICAL PARAMETERS THAT WOULD LEAN THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST TOWARDS A HIGH RAINFALL-LEADING-TO-FLOODING THREAT
ARE EXISTENT THUS...WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL THE REGION HAS ALREADY
RECEIVED...FEEL IT`S BEST TO GO AHEAD WITH THE WATCH. 31

&&


.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1214 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014/

DISCUSSION...
SEE 18Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

AVIATION...
CONVECTIVE TEMPS ARE BETWEEN 82-86 DEGREES AND PW VALUES REMAIN
BETWEEN 2.1-2.3 INCHES. IT WON`T TAKE MUCH LIFT TO GET CONVECTION
TO REFIRE THIS AFTN BUT THE FIRST LINE THAT ROLLED THROUGH THE
AREA WILL KEEP THINGS STABLE FOR A BIT EARLY THIS AFTN. HEATING
WILL ALLOW SHRA/TSRA TO DEVELOP NEAR KCLL/KUTS THIS AFTN. AVIATION
INTERESTS SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR POOR FLYING CONDITIONS BEGINNING
AS EARLY 09Z THURS AS A STRONG S/WV DIVES SE IN THE UPPER FLOW.
CONCERNED THAT CONVECTION WILL FIRE BEFORE SUNRISE AND AFFECT
AREAS FROM KCLL TO KIAH BY 12Z. ACTIVITY WILL PERSIST THROUGH MUCH
OF THE DAY. COULD HAVE USED TEMPO ALL DAY BUT PREFER TO WAIT AND
SEE HOW THE OVERNIGHT SYSTEM EVOLVES. 43

[dhweather]

Meanwhile at the dhweather center, it is bone dry, and I expect seven more days of bone dry at a minimum.

[weatherdude1108]

This Flash Flood Watch is right over the Highland Lakes watershed area. My water supply comes from this region. This would be great if it verified, with minimal loss of life and property of course!

Flash Flood Watch
FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
409 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE FOR AREAS GENERALLY
ALONG AND NORTH OF HIGHWAY 71 TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...

.ABUNDANT MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTH
CENTRAL TEXAS THROUGH THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...A SERIES OF UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE IN FROM THE NORTHWEST. THE
COMBINATION OF MOISTURE AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT
IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN ON THURSDAY. AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES...WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE.
FLASH FLOODING REMAINS POSSIBLE IN AREAS WHERE SEVERAL ROUNDS OF
HEAVY RAINFALL OCCUR. IN ADDITION TO THE THREAT OF FLASH
FLOODING...THESE HEAVY RAINS COULD PRODUCE RAPID RISES IN AREA
RIVERS...STREAMS AND NORMALLY DRY CREEKS.

TXC021-053-149-287-299-453-491-181200-
/O.NEW.KEWX.FF.A.0005.140918T0000Z-140919T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
BASTROP-BURNET-FAYETTE-LEE-LLANO-TRAVIS-WILLIAMSON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...BASTROP...BURNET...LA GRANGE...
GIDDINGS...LLANO...AUSTIN...GEORGETOWN
409 PM CDT WED SEP 17 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH
THURSDAY EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN SOUTH CENTRAL
TEXAS...BASTROP...BURNET...FAYETTE...LEE...LLANO...TRAVIS AND
WILLIAMSON.

* FROM 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY EVENING.

* AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 5 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE WATCH AREA.

* FLASH FLOODING OF LOW WATER CROSSINGS AND OTHER LOW LYING AND
NORMALLY FLOOD PRONE AREAS IS LIKELY DUE TO HEAVY RAINS.
NORMALLY DRY CREEKS AND AREA STREAMS MAY ALSO SEE RAPID RISES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLASH FLOOD WATCH MEANS FLASH FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN OR NEAR
THE WATCH AREA. IF YOU ARE IN THE WATCH AREA...PLAN NOW FOR WHAT
YOU WILL DO IF FLASH FLOODING DEVELOPS. STAY INFORMED AND BE
READY TO ACT IF YOU SEE FLOODING OR IF A FLASH FLOOD WARNING IS
ISSUED.

&&

$$

[somethingfunny]

Meanwhile at the dhweather center, it is bone dry, and I expect seven more days of bone dry at a minimum.

Same here but I see cells popping up in iorange55-land in southern Dallas. Maybe some outflow boundaries will generate!

[dhweather]

Meanwhile at the dhweather center, it is bone dry, and I expect seven more days of bone dry at a minimum.

Same here but I see cells popping up in iorange55-land in southern Dallas. Maybe some outflow boundaries will generate!

At least someone is getting rain in the metroplex.

[Ntxw]

The North Texas branch of PWC is getting very loud thunder and moderate rain on the east side of the big Airport.

[TheProfessor]

It was a tale of 2 hours today, in the first hour of football it felt like your usual Texas August, Hot, humid and muggy. But then the clouds rolled in and it felt like October and now were even getting rain here!

[dhweather]

I was in Rockwall near Costco, dark clouds, thunder, lightning, and it even rained for a minute. I return home to dust.

[TheProfessor]

I know storms weaken after the sun goes down, but is there any chance that the storm thats east pf Lubbock makes it to the Metroplex? or is it just too far for it to travel?

[South Texas Storms]

I know storms weaken after the sun goes down, but is there any chance that the storm thats east pf Lubbock makes it to the Metroplex? or is it just too far for it to travel?

It's currently moving more south than east, so this complex will likely miss to Metroplex to the south.

[dhweather]

From twitter - looks like the PWC might be getting some liquid gold!

TxStormChasers: Flash Flood Warning: Williamson/Travis Counties till 3:45 AM http://t.co/z61Ph3YZx4 #txwx #ctxwx http://t.co/Oa1FbAPchx

[weatherdude1108]

I can definitely verify the liquid gold! Been raining since 11:30pm here. Loud thunder shook house and woke me up when it started! Phone went crazy with alerts and warnings. Raining alternately between moderate and heavy, but not excessive. No to occasional thunder now. I'll check gauge at dawn.

[Portastorm]

Unbelievable storm here at the PWC in the last 90 minutes. 3-4 inched of rain with relentless lightning. House shaking like we are in a war. Power out.

[ndale]

Can't sleep, storms causing our dog to have anxiety attack and keeping me awake. Can't check gauge now but know it has been raining heavy almost constantly for 2-2 1/2 hours. Reports in area of up to 4 inches of rain per hour. May get interesting. Storms are moving to our south now towards Portastorm. We will see what he reports.