Texas Fall-2014

[texas1836]

The EPAC is about to give birth to another potential Mexico cruiser behind Odile, just unbelievable.

Well bring it on!!!!!

[Portastorm]

The mighty Pacific rules this year!

Hey, get a load of these latest Odile remnant tracks ... you don't think we'll see a lot of moisture into Texas from this once mighty hurricane? Heh, guess again.

[Ntxw]

The mighty Pacific rules this year!

It's not even a close contest. The EPAC has produced 6x the amount of activity and energy the Atlantic has put out this year. Literally it's smoking everything out of water (no pun intended) producing ripping shear over the Carib and Gulf

ACE calculation (total output of energy)

EPAC: 149.765 (152% of normal)

Atlantic: 27.56 (45% of normal)

[TheProfessor]

I don't remember how good the sref model was, but I think I remember it performing well in the short range last winter. Anyway it has North Texas getting around half an inch of rain through out the next few days in the last 2 runs. Though I would like more, I'll take any rain we can get.

[weatherdude1108]

Nice to see the rain chances go from 10% to 30% today. Tomorrow they range from 40% on NOAA to 80% on TWC. I guess the models are trying to figure out Odile's influence on our weather. I like the trend I'm seeing.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
405 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-170915-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAVERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
405 AM CDT TUE SEP 16 2014

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

A SURFACE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHERN TEXAS TODAY BRINGING AN
INCREASINGLY MOIST AIRMASS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BECOME
MORE NUMEROUS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES INTO TONIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WITH HIGH RAIN RATES ARE POSSIBLE.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A MOIST AIRMASS WILL PERSIST ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS FROM THE
MIDDLE TO LATE THIS WEEK. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS BECOMING MORE ISOLATED AT NIGHT
WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE AND
MAY CAUSE ISOLATED MINOR FLOODING.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME.

$$

[Portastorm]

Between the surface trough along the Texas coast (formerly 92L) and Odile's moisture plume, all we need is a little upper level energy to set things off (or convective heating) and ... wa-la! ... rain.

Here is the latest note from Jeff:

Tropical air mass working its way back into the region along with moisture from TS Odile.

Various weather making systems will produce an extended period of unsettled wet weather across much of TX this week into the weekend. Surface trough along the TX coast will be moving slowly inland today with deep tropical moisture noted over much of the central and western Gulf of Mexico. Soundings from CRP, BRO, and LCH all recorded PWS above 2.0 inches as tropical moisture from both the Gulf and TS Odile spread across the state. There is no well defined surface focus (front) to organize rainfall with the exception of the surface trough laying along the coast with favorable speed convergence near this feature. Thus rainfall will be mainly daytime heating driven and fall into the usual pattern of coastal nocturnal development in the 200am to 600am period and then spreading inland between 700am and 1000am.

TS Odile is currently moving up the Baja of Mexico this morning and has surprisingly maintained a well defined structure even while interacting with mountains upwards of 3000-5000 ft. Odile will be turning NNE and NE crossing the Gulf of California and then into the state of Arizona. A large shield of mid and high level moisture is peeling off Odile and spreading ENE across much of TX along with embedded energy ejecting outward from the decaying tropical system. Disturbances and additional moisture will only help to foster widespread rainfall and heavier rainfall across the state over the next 48-72 hours as Odile weakens. While this is typically a favorable fall flood setup for TX, the lack of a defined surface front however should negate training organized excessive rainfall.

With that said PWS in the 2.0-2.2 inch range for the next several days will support high hourly rainfall rates on the order of 2-3 inches. HPC grids have a fairly widespread 1-2 inch bullseye over the central and SW sections of SE TX on Wednesday as a disturbance aloft interacts with the tropical plume. Rainfall amounts through the end of the week will likely average 1-2 inches with isolated amounts of 5 inches or higher possible.

Late in the weekend another cold front will approach from the north and likely pass through the region. Will need to be watching newly formed TS Polo off the MX west coast as this system could become entangled with the trough and front late in the weekend.

[Portastorm]

I'm getting a bad feeling for our friends in El Paso. I just saw a note on Twitter that El Paso's 12z precipitable waters (PW) value was three times what it normally is as Odile's moisture plume slowly deepens into Texas. They can get some bad flooding there in these situations.

[weatherdude1108]

Yeah, I was noticing they were getting a stream of moisture. QPF is one of the highest in the state, next to the east Texas area. I went to El Paso in May. It was bone dry 8% humidity and hot. Feast or famine.

[Texas Snowman]

I'm getting a bad feeling for our friends in El Paso. I just saw a note on Twitter that El Paso's 12z precipitable waters (PW) value was three times what it normally is as Odile's moisture plume slowly deepens into Texas. They can get some bad flooding there in these situations.

I would never - NEVER - in a million years wish any sort of flooding on anybody in our fair state.

But I'm afraid it will take some type of flooding rain event - like perhaps the one that is setting up - to fill up the lakes, reservoirs and ground water supplies that are currently found in so many parched areas of Texas.

Is it possible to wish for flooding rains that don't damage anyone's homes, property or livestock?

[vbhoutex]

Between what is currently moving in off the GOM and heading WNW and NW I think there is a large chance of flooding rains in most parts of the state, but especially Central and N Central and NW TX. We are having quite a few passing showers in the Houston metro area also. I've had almost half an inch at my house already. To say the least there is ABUNDANT MOISTURE available for the next few days.

[Texas Snowman]

Jim Cantore tweeted earlier today that if some of the three and five-day rain forecast totals verify for portions of southern Arizona, NM and parts of West Texas, some of those folks will be in "big trouble."

I remember one fall back in the 1980s where several Pacific TC's interacted with seasonal fronts charging into Texas. We had some big flooding issues in portions of the state as a result.

Here in Grayson County, Sherman had a massive flood one morning and some parts of the county got upwards of 30-inches of rain for that month.

In fact, I remember sitting in class at Denison HS one day watching the local cable television rain gauge steadily tick upwards as a tropical downpour kept going and going for several hours. We ended the day with more than seven inches of rain if I recall and at one point, all roads into and out of Denison were flooded.

[TheProfessor]

Between what is currently moving in off the GOM and heading WNW and NW I think there is a large chance of flooding rains in most parts of the state, but especially Central and N Central and NW TX. WTexase are having quite a few passing showers in the Houston metro area also. I've had almost half an inch at my house already. To say the least there is ABUNDANT MOISTURE available for the next few days.

Especially or except? I sure hope we get a lot of rain, but FWD has are pops pretty low. I havent had a chance to ckeck the latest models runs this afternoon, but they didn't look promising this morning for North Texas, The frass stayed green all summer here, but now its starting to become dry.

[weatherdude1108]

POURED for a solid 20 minutes or so from just before 7pm. Ended around 7:45. 1.3 fresh inches in the weatherdude Center gauge!

[Ntxw]

Between what is currently moving in off the GOM and heading WNW and NW I think there is a large chance of flooding rains in most parts of the state, but especially Central and N Central and NW TX. WTexase are having quite a few passing showers in the Houston metro area also. I've had almost half an inch at my house already. To say the least there is ABUNDANT MOISTURE available for the next few days.

Especially or except? I sure hope we get a lot of rain, but FWD has are pops pretty low. I havent had a chance to ckeck the latest models runs this afternoon, but they didn't look promising this morning for North Texas, The frass stayed green all summer here, but now its starting to become dry.

I think he did mean especially. The models are not performing well with Odile. It's remnants is going to park a lot of water all across the southern Rockies and plains. We haven't seen a Pacific system do this in quite some time. It really is Biblical floods in the southwest. Somebody in the southern plains is going to get a rain bomb out of this, meaning something like 5-10" rainfall totals. The Euro actually tries to dump greater than 10" in central and southern Oklahoma and 5-8" in adjacent Texas. This model rarely shows something like that in our region.

[vbhoutex]

Between what is currently moving in off the GOM and heading WNW and NW I think there is a large chance of flooding rains in most parts of the state, but especially Central and N Central and NW TX. WTexase are having quite a few passing showers in the Houston metro area also. I've had almost half an inch at my house already. To say the least there is ABUNDANT MOISTURE available for the next few days.

Especially or except? I sure hope we get a lot of rain, but FWD has are pops pretty low. I havent had a chance to ckeck the latest models runs this afternoon, but they didn't look promising this morning for North Texas, The frass stayed green all summer here, but now its starting to become dry.

I mean basically most areas W and NW of I 35. It will depend on if if the right combination of SW and moisture plumes coming together and where they come together. Most guidance at this point keeps it in the areas I mentioned. I have seen at least one met state that there is a possibility that it could be Central and SE TX. I would say all of us in TX need to keep a close eye on the situation this week.
We have had about 0.75" so far at my house today in W. Houston.

[Ntxw]

Not only is it from the west but you can see the wide scale pattern drawing up moisture from the gulf. Where these features intersect is money



Not to mention tropical storm Polo has formed and is on it's heels in the EPAC

[TheProfessor]

Okay, thanks for the clarification, and I hope your right because we could use 5 inches of rain, though getting it all at once could cause problems.

[somethingfunny]

Odile's remnant low is expected to be in the Panhandle region on Sunday when it interacts with an approaching cold front, and that Sunday-Monday timeframe ought to have the heaviest rain chances for us.

Until then, isolated outflow-driven popcorn showers/storms will be around each day this week for anybody lucky enough to get under one, and they ought to be pretty efficient rain producers while they last.

[Wntrwthrguy]

Near Hutto (east of Round Rock) last night I received 3 inches in about 2 hours. It has been a while since I have seen rain that hard. Definitely welcomed and needed. Good to know rain chances are staying in the forecast for much of the state for a while!

[Portastorm]

Based on the 70% pops today for the EWX FWA and what we saw last night, I think the activity in south central Texas will be a lot more than isolated. "Scattered" at a minimum and "widespread" at its worst comes to mind.

The latest QPF map from the WPC shows a "QPF bomb" right over/near Austin with 3.6" rain in the next 5 days. Isolated higher totals likely.