EPAC: ODILE - Remnants

[Yellow Evan]

Cabo radar down as usual.

[Kingarabian]

Cabo radar down as usual.

Can't be worse than Hawaii's.

[CrazyC83]

Maybe 105 kt for landfall intensity accounting for the slightly lower ADT's?

[Yellow Evan]

Cabo radar down as usual.

Can't be worse than Hawaii's.

At least that was put back up quickly.

[CrazyC83]

From iCyclone: 8:45 pm. Wind has suddenly gone from a whistle to a roar. Doors shaking like in a bad earthquake.

[Yellow Evan]

Slowing down, but still on track to make landfall. Continuing NNW.

[Aric Dunn]

Maybe 105 kt for landfall intensity accounting for the slightly lower ADT's?

Its likely deepening as we speak being that the EWRC has completed. The ye diameter has been shrinking over the last couple hours.

Looking at the microwave from a few hours ago to the latest one you can see it.

[Yellow Evan]

Adv still not out...

[supercane4867]

Every satellite data suggest 110-115kt for landfall intensity. However subjective assessment by the forecaster does play a rule

[NDG]

These are some huge waves from earlier today.

http://youtu.be/YtKglfr1eAE

[supercane4867]

...CENTER OF DANGEROUS HURRICANE ODILE JUST A FEW HOURS FROM CABO SAN LUCAS...
...ALL PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA SHOULD HAVE BEEN COMPLETED...

8:00 PM PDT Sun Sep 14
Location: 22.6°N 109.6°W
Moving: NNW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 930 mb
Max sustained: 125 mph

[Yellow Evan]

ZCZC MIATCMEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE ODILE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
0300 UTC MON SEP 15 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM
WARNING FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR NORTHWARD TO
LORETO.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
FOR THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LORETO TO
BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA...AND FOR THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA.

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL STORM WATCH FOR THE
WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA TO SAN
JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS...AND FOR MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO BAHIA
KINO.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO LORETO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO PUNTA EUGENIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LORETO TO
BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA

* THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUNTA
ABREOJOS TO PUNTA EUGENIA

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF PUNTA EUGENIA TO SAN JOSE DE LAS PALOMAS
* MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO BAHIA KINO

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 109.6W AT 15/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 340 DEGREES AT 15 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 930 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 110 KT WITH GUSTS TO 135 KT.
64 KT....... 45NE 45SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 60SE 60SW 60NW.
34 KT.......160NE 160SE 100SW 120NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 360SE 270SW 180NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 22.6N 109.6W AT 15/0300Z
AT 15/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 22.0N 109.2W

FORECAST VALID 15/1200Z 24.0N 110.9W...INLAND
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/0000Z 25.4N 112.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 16/1200Z 26.7N 113.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 30SE 20SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 60SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT...130NE 130SE 100SW 120NW.

FORECAST VALID 17/0000Z 27.7N 113.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 50SE 40SW 40NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 80SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 18/0000Z 28.7N 114.3W...INLAND
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 60NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 19/0000Z 29.8N 113.6W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 20/0000Z 30.5N 113.0W...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 22.6N 109.6W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 15/0900Z

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

[Kingarabian]

Adv still not out...

They have some important things to think about right now. It's tough since it seems like it maybe on the strengthening side.

Aric Dunn just backed that notion.

[Yellow Evan]

ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM

HURRICANE ODILE DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
800 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

Geostationary and microwave imagery indicate that the inner eyewall
of the hurricane has dissipated, leaving only an outer eyewall at a
radius of about 25 n mi. This broadening of the inner-core wind
field normally corresponds to some weakening, but, given the
uncertainties, the current intensity is held at 110 kt. This is
somewhat lower than the subjective and objective Dvorak estimates.
Since the center will be moving over or at least very near land
shortly, it is unlikely that the eyewall will have time to contract
and complete the eyewall replacement cycle. Weakening is expected
to commence by early Monday. The amount of weakening over the next
several days depends on how much the circulation interacts with the
Baja California Peninsula. On the latest NHC forecast track, the
center is expected to remain over land for much of the period.
Therefore, the official intensity forecast is significantly lower
than the previous one.

The motion has been to the right and somewhat faster than earlier
today. Therefore the official track forecast has been adjusted
accordingly. This is close to a blend of the latest GFS and ECMWF
solutions.

Users are reminded to not focus on the exact forecast track, as
strong winds and heavy rainfall extend well away from the center of
Odile. In addition, moisture from a disturbance over northeastern
Mexico and the Pacific ITCZ is forecast to be advected by Odile's
circulation northwestward across Mexico into the southwestern United
States by early next week. This could result in heavy rains and
life-threatening flash flooding in those areas. Please see
information from your local weather office for more details.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 22.6N 109.6W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 24.0N 110.9W 95 KT 110 MPH...INLAND
24H 16/0000Z 25.4N 112.0W 85 KT 100 MPH...INLAND
36H 16/1200Z 26.7N 113.0W 75 KT 85 MPH...INLAND
48H 17/0000Z 27.7N 113.8W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND
72H 18/0000Z 28.7N 114.3W 40 KT 45 MPH...INLAND
96H 19/0000Z 29.8N 113.6W 30 KT 35 MPH
120H 20/0000Z 30.5N 113.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
Forecaster Pasch

[SeGaBob]

I hate it that these people have to go through this anytime but it's really bad when it's at night.

[Kingarabian]

Beginning to clear out. I think if it gets the chance to clear out, it will have a huge eye. Luckily it's running out of time, but the NHC says it's a few hours away from landfall.

ADT is probably dropping due to the eye clearing out.

[supercane4867]

Updated track

[Yellow Evan]

Finally they have it entering the GOC.

[CrazyC83]

Landfall probably around 0500-0600Z I would think.

[supercane4867]

I'm guessing the central pressure is still somewhere below 930mb