ATL: EDOUARD - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[cycloneye]

There are two planes on the recon data, one that went to Saint Croix and one that went to Bermuda: Are these for Edouard and does anybody know when they'll be flown?

Three NOAA planes and Nasa Global Hawk for Monday.

NOAA WILL CONDUCT A THREE-PLANE RESEARCH MISSION INTO AND
AROUND HURRICANE EDOUARD ON MONDAY. TAKEOFF TIMES FOR
NOAA43 AND NOAA49 FROM TISX ARE 15/1200Z AND 15/1300Z,
RESPECTIVELY. TAKEOFF TIME FOR NOAA42 FROM TXKF IS
15/1400Z.

C. THE NASA 872 GLOBAL HAWK WILL LIKELY FLY ANOTHER RESEARCH
MISSION OVER EDOUARD ON TUESDAY. TAKEOFF TIME FROM KWAL
WILL EITHER BE 16/1100Z OR 16/2200Z.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

2014SEP14 214500 5.3 963.3 97.2 5.3 5.3 5.3 NO LIMIT OFF OFF -36.66 -62.13 EYE -99 IR 27.9 25.73 52.31 SPRL GOES13 39.2

[Buck]

Eduoard is looking good!

[Hammy]

Looks like dry air got entrained into the eyewall, its looking ragged now and the convection isn't quite as deep as earlier.

[SeGaBob]

You've been downplaying this storm since this was 91L... just take it for what it is. It's as good a storm as we may see the rest of the season. (In the Atlantic anyway)

[hurricanehunter69]

Keep your fingers crossed Hammy. Edouard may have a 0.001% chance at Not becoming a major.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track up to 80kts.

AL, 06, 2014091500, , BEST, 0, 258N, 527W, 80, 982, HU

[Time_Zone]

Looks like dry air got entrained into the eyewall, its looking ragged now and the convection isn't quite as deep as earlier.

I don't know what you're seeing....

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

There are some signs of dry air entrainment, but it seems insignificant and is unlikely to prevent this from becoming a major hurricane. The cloud pattern remains well-organized.

[CrazyC83]

TXNT21 KNES 150008
TCSNTL

A. 06L (EDOUARD)

B. 14/2345Z

C. 25.8N

D. 52.7W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T4.5/4.5/D1.0/18HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/SSMI/AMSU/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM CLASSIFIED USING EYE PATTERN. MEDIUM GRAY
SURROUNDING GRAY SHADE GIVING AN EYE NUMBER OF 4.5 WITH AN OFF-WHITE
EYE SURROUNDED BY A LIGHT GRAY RING YIELDING NO EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR A
FINAL DT OF 4.5. MET IS 5.0 BASED ON DEVELOPMENT COMPARED TO 24HRS AGO.
PT IS 4.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

14/1813Z 25.2N 51.6W SSMI
14/1913Z 25.3N 51.8W AMSU
14/2119Z 25.5N 52.4W SSMIS


...LIDDICK

No change. All data seems to agree on 80 kt as assessed.

[Hammy]

Looks like dry air got entrained into the eyewall, its looking ragged now and the convection isn't quite as deep as earlier.

I don't know what you're seeing....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/06L/flash-rbtop-long.html There is a dry air slot to the west of the eye, and the eyewall may be open to the west given the small convection gap. I still think there is a good shot (maybe 60%) of this becoming a major hurricane, but it certainly doesn't seem to be strengthening in any hurry, but more at a slow steady pace.

[Yellow Evan]

I wouldn't get too worried about dry air intrusion. It's part of the RI process. Ill describe it in 6 steps.

1.Formation
2.Quick Intensification
3.Dry air intrusion
4.RI
5.Peak
6.ERC

I know this is from the EPAC, but does anyone remember Adrian 11? Despite dry air, it became a mid-level Cat 4 and against all odds, had it had 6 more hours, may have became a Cat 5.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track up to 80kts.

AL, 06, 2014091500, , BEST, 0, 258N, 527W, 80, 982, HU

They revised it down to 75kts.

AL, 06, 2014091500, , BEST, 0, 258N, 527W, 75, 982, HU

[SeGaBob]

Looks like dry air got entrained into the eyewall, its looking ragged now and the convection isn't quite as deep as earlier.

I don't know what you're seeing....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floaters/06L/flash-rbtop-long.html There is a dry air slot to the west of the eye, and the eyewall may be open to the west given the small convection gap. I still think there is a good shot (maybe 60%) of this becoming a major hurricane, but it certainly doesn't seem to be strengthening in any hurry, but more at a slow steady pace.

Still think? On page 9 you said mid range cat 1

[Hammy]

Still think? On page 9 you said mid range cat 1

With the Euro showing a Cat 4 I figured it was pretty likely this would get to Cat 3. That being said it seems to be weakening at the moment, whether it's temporary or not I don't know, but it's certainly less impressive than it was this afternoon.

And it still hasn't exceeded mid-range Cat 1 yet

edit: NHC is seeing the same thing.

Edouard's cloud pattern has not changed much in organization this
evening. Although the eye had become better defined and warmer, it
has recently disappeared. Convective cloud top temperatures in the
central dense overcast have also warmed during the past several
hours. There is some evidence that dry air may be wrapping into
portions of the inner core of the hurricane.

It's also now forecast to reach major hurricane for 12 hours or less, earlier today it was shown reaching 120 mph, then after that 115 for about 24 hours.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE EDOUARD ADVISORY NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 14 2014

...EDOUARD HEADING NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...ONLY A THREAT TO MARINE INTERESTS...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.2N 53.3W
ABOUT 835 MI...1345 KM NE OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...85 MPH...140 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...982 MB...29.00 INCHES



HURRICANE EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 14 2014

Edouard's cloud pattern has not changed much in organization this
evening. Although the eye had become better defined and warmer, it
has recently disappeared. Convective cloud top temperatures in the
central dense overcast have also warmed during the past several
hours. There is some evidence that dry air may be wrapping into
portions of the inner core of the hurricane. Dvorak intensity
estimates were a consensus T4.5/77 kt from TAFB and SAB, so
the initial intensity estimate is held at 75 kt.

The environment ahead of Edouard is likely to become more conducive
for intensification during the next day or two. While traversing
warm waters, the shear is forecast to reach a minimum in 36-48
hours. The only inhibiting factor would seem to be dry environmental
air wrapping around the circulation. After achieving a peak
intensity near the point of recurvature, gradual weakening is likely
to commence while the hurricane moves toward decreasing sea surface
temperatures. A considerable increase in southwesterly shear and
dramatically cooler waters should hasten the weakening trend beyond
72 hours. Edouard's interaction with a shortwave trough moving
across Atlantic Canada in 4-5 days should lead to the beginning of
extratropical transition at that time, but the guidance is not clear
cut on a completion of this process by day 5. The intensity
forecast is near or just above the multi-model consensus through 72
hours and near or a little below it at the end of the forecast
period.

The initial motion estimate is 305/13 kt. Edouard should continue on
a northwestward heading on the south side of subtropical ridge until
the ridge retreats eastward in a day or so. This change in the
steering pattern should result in Edouard's turning sharply
northward in about 36 hours. The hurricane should then be captured
by a strong mid-latitude westerly flow and accelerate northeastward
in 3-4 days, and turn generally eastward with a decrease in forward
speed by day 5. The track guidance has shifted significantly to the
left this cycle, and the official forecast track has been moved in
that direction. The new track forecast, however, lies on the far
right side of the guidance envelope.




FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 15/0300Z 26.2N 53.3W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 15/1200Z 27.2N 54.9W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 16/0000Z 28.6N 56.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 16/1200Z 30.2N 57.1W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 17/0000Z 32.4N 56.5W 95 KT 110 MPH
72H 18/0000Z 37.4N 51.3W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 19/0000Z 41.2N 42.7W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROPICAL
120H 20/0000Z 41.2N 36.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROPICAL

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[SeGaBob]

You do have a point there...

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

A Global Hawks aircraft has been flying through the hurricane throughout the afternoon. The latest dropsonde measured 97kt winds at 925mb (1,781ft), and an earlier dropsonde observed a pressure of 967 millibars. I'm new to Global Hawks, so I don't know if this data needs to be adjusted for something.

[Hammy]

Is it possible this was a Cat 2 earlier in the day (around evening) and has since weakened?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Most of the dry air has been mixed out, and the eye is clearing again.