EPAC: ODILE - Remnants

[Alyono]

eye is distinct, but the could tops continue to warm

There may even be a chance that this goes down to a category 2 prior to landfall

So what? As long as if there is an eye, I can't see Dvorak (let alone CI) going lower than 5.5. Landfall at this point is within 6 hours away.

So what? It makes a significant difference in terms of intensity! That's what

Also, one thing I have found is that Dvorak often indicates too high of an intensity for weakening intense TCs. This is one modification to the Dvorak technique that was made at the firm I work for and we've found that this modification allows us to better estimate intensity vs conventional Dvorak

[Yellow Evan]

eye is distinct, but the could tops continue to warm

There may even be a chance that this goes down to a category 2 prior to landfall

So what? As long as if there is an eye, I can't see Dvorak (let alone CI) going lower than 5.5. Landfall at this point is within 6 hours away.

So what? It makes a significant difference in terms of intensity! That's what

Also, one thing I have found is that Dvorak often indicates too high of an intensity for weakening intense TCs. This is one modification to the Dvorak technique that was made at the firm I work for and we've found that this modification allows us to better estimate intensity vs conventional Dvorak

The CI values are held at 12 hours. I've long thought it should be 6. However, I can't see the NHC downgrading this to a 2 at the upcoming advisory.

[supercane4867]

TXPZ22 KNES 150035
TCSENP

A. 15E (ODILE)

B. 15/0000Z

C. 22.0N

D. 109.1W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/ATMS/SSMI

H. REMARKS...SYSTEM IS DEFINED BY AND EYE SCENE. BLACK SURROUNDING
GRAY SHADE YIELDING A EYE NUMBER OF 5.5 WITH AN OFF-WHITE EYE AND A BLACK
SURROUNDING RING GIVING AN EYE ADJUSTMENT OF +0.5 FOR A FINAL DT OF 6.0.
MET IS 6.0 BASED ON DEVELOPMENT COMPARED TO 24HRS AGO. PT IS 6.0.
FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

14/2018Z 21.0N 108.7W ATMS
14/2136Z 21.4N 108.8W SSMI


...LIDDICK

[jlauderdal]

The small village of Cabo Pulmo on the east tip of Baja should get a rough ride tonight.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Cabo Pulmo is a national monument near Los Cabos. I'd expect it to make landfall a little W of that, near the Los Cabos/San Jose Del Cabos area.

As nice as the tourist areas are there is plenty of sub standard housing by the airport,,,was in cabo last may ...mostly desert but plenty of buildings to be damaged and vegetation to get destroyed... They will start rebuilding tuesday, way too many tourist dollars flying in 365 days a year..good luck to the residents, looks like a direct hit

Sent from my Nexus 7 using Tapatalk

[supercane4867]

So what? As long as if there is an eye, I can't see Dvorak (let alone CI) going lower than 5.5. Landfall at this point is within 6 hours away.

So what? It makes a significant difference in terms of intensity! That's what

Also, one thing I have found is that Dvorak often indicates too high of an intensity for weakening intense TCs. This is one modification to the Dvorak technique that was made at the firm I work for and we've found that this modification allows us to better estimate intensity vs conventional Dvorak

The CI values are held at 12 hours. I've long thought it should be 6. However, I can't see the NHC downgrading this to a 2 at the upcoming advisory.

There've also been tons of examples in the past indicate Dvorak often underestimates weakening TCs. So far I haven't seen any solid evidence for either case.

[WeatherGuesser]

Los Cabos orders evacuations as Hurricane Odile nears Baja
Los Angeles Times

[CrazyC83]

It was T5.5/6.0 for the previous two advisories, and now T6.0/6.0. I think it is holding intensity right now...I see no reason to adjust the 110 kt current intensity without Recon.

I think the peak intensity was at 1200Z (120 kt) but the pressure was higher then - about 935mb. It is not a one-to-one relationship, and structural changes have been ongoing this afternoon.

[Yellow Evan]

There've also been tons of examples in the past indicate Dvorak often underestimates weakening TCs. So far I haven't seen any solid evidence for either case.

T-numbers or CI values?

[Ivanhater]

Not use to tracking Pacific storms being for the Gulf Coast....only been stationed in Vegas for a year, would this going up the Gulf of Cali be more of a threat to Vegas concerning Flooding or less. Seems to be a different set-up with the possible cut off low from the upper trough with Norbert. Pacific is a different beast than the Gulf

You stationed at Nellis AFB?

Cut-off lows generally provide more rain to SW TC's than upper-troughs. I know Octave 83 (AZ's costliest TC) was due to a cut-off partially. Granted, Olivia 82 (750 mil in damage) and Norbert 78 (CA's costliest TC) interacted with troughs.

Creech in Indian Springs but live in Summerlin close to Red rock...got caught on 95 in the flood last week from base coming home....never want to experience that again. Getting a little concerned adding the cut off low to the mix...a taste of Florida round 2 perhaps

[Ivanhater]

Not use to tracking Pacific storms being for the Gulf Coast....only been stationed in Vegas for a year, would this going up the Gulf of Cali be more of a threat to Vegas concerning Flooding or less. Seems to be a different set-up with the possible cut off low from the upper trough with Norbert. Pacific is a different beast than the Gulf

Good to see you on here Ivanhater!

You too! Hope everyone back home on the Gulf coast is ok and has a safe rest of the season!

[Kingarabian]

Making a beeline to Baja California.

[Kingarabian]

Not use to tracking Pacific storms being for the Gulf Coast....only been stationed in Vegas for a year, would this going up the Gulf of Cali be more of a threat to Vegas concerning Flooding or less. Seems to be a different set-up with the possible cut off low from the upper trough with Norbert. Pacific is a different beast than the Gulf

I think the Euro's scenario would be the most worrying for you and Yellow Evan.

Keep your eyes peeled, and welcome to the Eastern Pacific ! I doubt you ever thought you would have a Pacific storm affecting you.

[supercane4867]

Going out of the cone

[Yellow Evan]

Making a beeline to Baja California.

Landfalls looks 2-3 hours away.

[Ivanhater]

Not use to tracking Pacific storms being for the Gulf Coast....only been stationed in Vegas for a year, would this going up the Gulf of Cali be more of a threat to Vegas concerning Flooding or less. Seems to be a different set-up with the possible cut off low from the upper trough with Norbert. Pacific is a different beast than the Gulf

I think the Euro's scenario would be the most worrying for you and Yellow Evan.

Keep your eyes peeled, and welcome to the Eastern Pacific ! I doubt you ever thought you would have a Pacific storm affecting you.

So true..Might not be direct hits like back home but I'm learning the pacific storms can cause havoc in the desert South West.

[Yellow Evan]

I think the Euro's scenario would be the most worrying for you and Yellow Evan.

I'm not too worried yet, but I do not have to drive in flooding roads (I take the bus to school). Like most of us here, I love the rain.

[Andrew92]

I would love to see rain in my area, just as long as it's nothing like what Norbert gave us last weekend! Hoping likewise for you fellow Southwesterners.

-Andrew92

[RL3AO]

Well we've seen what happens to storms when they hit Mexico or Hispaniola. If this starts running up the Baja for any amount of time, it will weaken much quicker than the forecast and models show.

[Yellow Evan]

From the iCyclone facebook page

7 pm. Strong gusts tugging hard at the trees, which are waving wildly. Lobby of hotel whistling. Streets flooded. 996 mb. Core of hurricane closing in.

[CrazyC83]

Landfall, if anywhere, looks to be on the eastern edge of the southern tip.