EPAC: ODILE - Remnants

[Cyclenall]

What an incredable hurricane. I can't fully track this beast but I'm following what I can. It's going to be one if not the roughest night in the Epac this decade. It's good that Josh M is intercepting Odile, its the one.

I'm surprised there have only been 4 major hurricanes to have made landfall on Baja...thought there were many.

[Yellow Evan]

Inner eyewall going away. Cloud tops look fairly cool still.

[Yellow Evan]

What an incredable hurricane. I can't fully track this beast but I'm following what I can. It's going to be one if not the roughest night in the Epac this decade. It's good that Josh M is intercepting Odile, its the one.

I'm surprised there have only been 4 major hurricanes to have made landfall on Baja...thought there were many.

There's only been 2, Kiko 89 and Olivia 67. Usually SST's are too cool to support Cat 3's, but warm enough to get lots of Cat 1's and 2's.

[supercane4867]

That outer eyewall looks fairly intense

[Ntxw]

God bless those folks down there

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 SEP 2014 Time : 230000 UTC
Lat : 21:49:01 N Lon : 108:53:36 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 931.9mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.3 6.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km

Center Temp : -13.6C Cloud Region Temp : -70.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 137km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 38.9 degrees

[Cyclenall]

What an incredable hurricane. I can't fully track this beast but I'm following what I can. It's going to be one if not the roughest night in the Epac this decade. It's good that Josh M is intercepting Odile, its the one.

I'm surprised there have only been 4 major hurricanes to have made landfall on Baja...thought there were many.

There's only been 2, Kiko 89 and Olivia 67. Usually SST's are too cool to support Cat 3's, but warm enough to get lots of Cat 1's and 2's.

Even more surprising then. I read the figure "4" days ago on here a few times. I was also going to add that Odile's eye looks like a belly button lol. That outer eyewall looks MEAN.

[PTrackerLA]

http://www.cabovillas.com/webcams.asp

Great link for webcams before it gets dark. Some incredible wave action occurring the beaches already being washed over. Going to be a rough night in Cabo hope they have taken this storm seriously.

[Alyono]

looks like it has weakened some during the past few hours. I'd say winds are probably closer to 100 kts now

[Yellow Evan]

looks like it has weakened some during the past few hours. I'd say winds are probably closer to 100 kts now

Cloud tops are warming yes, but the eye is well defined. ADT values pretty high.

[Sanibel]

The small village of Cabo Pulmo on the east tip of Baja should get a rough ride tonight.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[South Texas Storms]

The eyewall of Major Hurricane Odile is visible on the Los Cabos, Mexico radar.
http://smn.cna.gob.mx/radares/cabos/cabos_ultima.php

[Ivanhater]

Not use to tracking Pacific storms being for the Gulf Coast....only been stationed in Vegas for a year, would this going up the Gulf of Cali be more of a threat to Vegas concerning Flooding or less. Seems to be a different set-up with the possible cut off low from the upper trough with Norbert. Pacific is a different beast than the Gulf

[Yellow Evan]

Not use to tracking Pacific storms being for the Gulf Coast....only been stationed in Vegas for a year, would this going up the Gulf of Cali be more of a threat to Vegas concerning Flooding or less. Seems to be a different set-up with the possible cut off low from the upper trough with Norbert. Pacific is a different beast than the Gulf

You stationed at Nellis AFB?

Cut-off lows generally provide more rain to SW TC's than upper-troughs. I know Octave 83 (AZ's costliest TC) was due to a cut-off partially. Granted, Olivia 82 (750 mil in damage) and Norbert 78 (CA's costliest TC) interacted with troughs.

[CaneCurious]

Not use to tracking Pacific storms being for the Gulf Coast....only been stationed in Vegas for a year, would this going up the Gulf of Cali be more of a threat to Vegas concerning Flooding or less. Seems to be a different set-up with the possible cut off low from the upper trough with Norbert. Pacific is a different beast than the Gulf

Good to see you on here Ivanhater!

[Yellow Evan]

The small village of Cabo Pulmo on the east tip of Baja should get a rough ride tonight.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Cabo Pulmo is a national monument near Los Cabos. I'd expect it to make landfall a little W of that, near the Los Cabos/San Jose Del Cabos area.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 15, 2014091500, , BEST, 0, 220N, 1092W, 110, 925, HU, 34, NEQ, 180, 180, 100, 120, 1004, 180, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ODILE, D,
EP, 15, 2014091500, , BEST, 0, 220N, 1092W, 110, 925, HU, 50, NEQ, 80, 60, 60, 60, 1004, 180, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ODILE, D,
EP, 15, 2014091500, , BEST, 0, 220N, 1092W, 110, 925, HU, 64, NEQ, 45, 45, 30, 30, 1004, 180, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ODILE, D,

[Alyono]

eye is distinct, but the could tops continue to warm

There may even be a chance that this goes down to a category 2 prior to landfall

[Yellow Evan]

eye is distinct, but the could tops continue to warm

There may even be a chance that this goes down to a category 2 prior to landfall

So what? As long as if there is an eye, I can't see Dvorak (let alone CI) going lower than 5.5. Landfall at this point is within 6 hours away.

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 15 SEP 2014 Time : 000000 UTC
Lat : 21:59:32 N Lon : 109:01:27 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 931.9mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.1 6.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km

Center Temp : -14.4C Cloud Region Temp : -68.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 137km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 38.9 degrees