EPAC: ODILE - Remnants

[Ptarmigan]

Is this the lowest pressure for a Category 3? We should really pray for those people in Odile's path.

Hurricane andrew had 922 when it made landfall.. the issue with winds right now is the ERC once its done the winds should come back up to cat 4

Odile is larger than Andrew.

[supercane4867]

Becomes even more symmetrical

[Yellow Evan]

ERC done?

[supercane4867]

Landfall imminent

[pgoss11]

Wow! That storm looks ferocious. May God help everyone on the Baja Peninsula.

[Yellow Evan]

There's no update statement, yet it's not working on the NHC site.

[NDG]

Wow, poor Cabo San Lucas, Odile is heading straight towards them. Is going to be a long night for them.

[WeatherGuesser]

WTPZ65 KNHC 142243
TCUEP5

HURRICANE ODILE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
345 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS EXTENDED THE HURRICANE WARNING
NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA NORTH OF LA PAZ TO SAN EVARISTO.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

[RL3AO]

Looks to be a little east of forecast. Maybe even outside of the current cone.

[cycloneye]

Good graphic of past cat 2 and greater hurricanes that had affected Southern Baja.



Source

[WeatherGuesser]

[Alyono]

looks like this may go east of Cabo San Lucas. This would increase the threat to the MUCH larger La Paz

[Yellow Evan]

Good graphic of past cat 2 and greater hurricanes that had affected Southern Baja.



Source

Doesn't work. Do it again and click the share button.

[Yellow Evan]

looks like this may go east of Cabo San Lucas. This would increase the threat to the MUCH larger La Paz

Also would make it a threat to San Jose Del Cabo. Would also increase its odds of heading up the GOC.

[Andrew92]

Not featured on that graphic is Olivia in 1967 hit Baja as a Category 3 with a pressure of 939 mb. Then again, that one suddenly intensified and hit further north of this area. Also striking farther north on Baja as a Category 2 were Norbert in 2008 and Jimena in 2009.

John in 2006 was also arguably a major hurricane if we go by its pressure at landfall of 958 mb, if we consider that 964 is the typical high pressure for an average-sized Category 3. I know, it was a Category 2, but it did cause plenty of problems as I recall.

-Andrew92

[Yellow Evan]

Not featured on that graphic is Olivia in 1967 hit Baja as a Category 3 with a pressure of 939 mb. Then again, that one suddenly intensified and hit further north of this area. Also striking farther north on Baja as a Category 2 were Norbert in 2008 and Jimena in 2009.

John in 2006 was also arguably a major hurricane if we go by its pressure at landfall of 958 mb, if we consider that 964 is the typical high pressure for an average-sized Category 3. I know, it was a Category 2, but it did cause plenty of problems as I recall.

-Andrew92

The most debatable case is Paul 82 which IMO was a solid Cat 3 even though the HURDAT has it a 95 knots landfall.



Regarding Oliva, that made landfall near Loreto, much much further north, so it's not on the graphic.

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ35 KNHC 142330
TCPEP5

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ODILE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
500 PM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE ODILE EXPECTED TO MOVE NEAR OR OVER SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
...ALL PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...21.9N 109.0W
ABOUT 90 MI...145 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 345 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...925 MB...27.31 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM PUNTA ABREOJOS TO SAN EVARISTO

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS
TO PUNTA EUGENIA.
* THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
LORETO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES
* THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
SANTA ROSALIA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE EAST COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF SANTA
ROSALIA TO BAHIA SAN JUAN BAUTISTA.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. PREPARATIONS
TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM PDT...0000 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 21.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 109.0 WEST. ODILE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CORE OF ODILE WILL PASS NEAR OR OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR TONIGHT AND MONDAY AND NEAR OR OVER
THE REMAINDER OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 125 MPH...205 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ODILE IS A STRONG CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS
STILL POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. GRADUAL WEAKENING
IS FORECAST TO BEGIN ON MONDAY AND CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY.

ODILE IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 50 MILES...85 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 925 MB...27.31 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA BEGINNING TONIGHT...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE HURRICANE WATCH
AREA LATE MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
NORTHWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IN ADVANCE OF THE HURRICANE
CONDITIONS THROUGH MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL
STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY STILL OCCURRING ALONG PORTIONS OF THE
COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO
DIMINISH LATER TONIGHT.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANT COASTAL FLOODING IN AREAS OF ONSHORE WINDS IN THE
HURRICANE WARNING AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND ARE BEGINNING
TO AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE CONSULT
PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF AROUND 15 INCHES IN BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN. SOME HEAVIER RAINFALL
BANDS WILL ALSO MOVE THROUGH THE MEXICAN STATES OF COLIMA...WESTERN
JALISCO...AND WESTERN MICHOACAN. THESE RAINS ARE LIKELY TO RESULT IN
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...800 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH/KIMBERLAIN

[supercane4867]

18z GFS shifts way east

[CrazyC83]

At this point it might just miss the peninsula and run up the Gulf of California - that would throw the forecasts off big time.

[Yellow Evan]

18z GFS shifts way east

NHC should have this entering the GOC then at 3z.