EPAC: ODILE - Remnants

[Kingarabian]

Thanks.

[Kingarabian]

Odile.

[Kingarabian]

I just put some random input into that NASA link and got this:



Freaky stuff.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like the Cabo airport is closing soon. iCyclone just made it.

Check it out. We're one of the last plane-loads of people allowed into Cabo San Lucas. They're shutting down the airport and locking down the city. We just made it on. Cuttin' it close today.

[supercane4867]

Inner eyewall clearing out

[cycloneye]

Cabo San Lucas cam

Rough sea in Cabo.While is daylight it will be good to see how things are going there.

[galaxy401]

Best track has the peak intensity of Odile revised up to 120kt. Actual pressure at the time was likely near or below 920mb based on current data

EP, 15, 2014091412, , BEST, 0, 194N, 1077W, 120, 923, HU, 50, NEQ, 70, 70, 50, 60, 1005, 180, 15, 140, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ODILE, D,

Interesting to note that Odile is now 1 mb higher than the tenth most intense EPAC hurricane.

[Kingarabian]

Just cirrus clouds or is a stadium effect beginning?

[WeatherGuesser]

Not looking good for Baja.

Not much of a nudge could put it in the Gulf too.

[Yellow Evan]

Not looking good for Baja.

Not at all. Hopefully this is not the 2nd coming of Liza.

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 SEP 2014 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 20:38:13 N Lon : 108:29:16 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 930.1mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.4 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : +2.1C Cloud Region Temp : -69.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 137km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 38.5 degrees

[CrazyC83]

If this ends up in the Gulf of California, it could hold its intensity for quite a while before dry air becomes the issue...

[Yellow Evan]

If this ends up in the Gulf of California, it could hold its intensity for quite a while before dry air becomes the issue...

It'll probably behave similar to Phet and Gonu did near Oman in the NIO (area super dry there as well).

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

There's persistent lightning ongoing in the northeastern portion of the inner eyewall. This should be where recon, which is currently making its southwest-northeast pass, finds the strongest winds. While I doubt this is a Category 4 hurricane still, they should find plenty of evidence to support making this an upper-end Category 3 hurricane.

This is going to be a dangerous hurricane for the Baja California peninsula. This EWRC should make it almost certain that Cabo San Lucas experiences hurricane-force winds, and if that weren't enough, Odile has been wobbling just west of north for the past few hours; I'd expect an eastward shift to the track at 21z.

[CaneCurious]

My untrained eye is seeing Odile wobbling north not northwest. That is huge for Cabo and the Baja taking a direct hit. My parents live there are bracing for the worst

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

P.S. Is it just coincidence that Odile began a period of rapid deepening just as the core of the convectively-coupled kelvin wave passed overhead last night?



I noticed in the NHC TCRs that they've begun mentioning CCKWs as assistants to development and intensification; it's nice to see that, and hopefully they're incorporated into operational advisories as well.

[Aric Dunn]

If it can complete the IRC before approaching Cabo it might deepen quite a bit.. its nearly complete another 12 hours and should really see that outer eyewall contract

[supercane4867]

Extrap 923.0mb in this pass. Pressure rising slowy

[WeatherGuesser]

I was wondering what that little nudge of land is there due East.

Must be fun In Puerto Vallarta right now.

[Alyono]

The 90% rule most certainly dos not apply according to recon. Winds are only about 105 kts.

Similar flight level to surface wind ratio as Katrina had at landfall