EPAC: ODILE - Remnants

[Sanibel]

Seeing where the depth is in that core Baja should get a good hit.

[supercane4867]

Recon extrapolated 922mb, wow

[CrazyC83]

Winds not really conclusive so I would leave them at 115 kt until further passes (the strongest quadrant not measured). But the pressure looks to be in the 920s.

[Yellow Evan]

Recon extrapolated 922mb, wow

Doesn't surprise me. Juliete 01 was also large, and had a pressure in the 940s as a Cat 2 in an ERC, and had a 923 mbar pressure at peak confirmed via Recon.

[RL3AO]

Pressure is 19mb lower than estimate. Interested to see what the strongest quadrant shows.

[supercane4867]

Recon extrapolated 922mb, wow

Doesn't surprise me. Juliete 01 was also large, and had a pressure in the 940s as a Cat 2 in an ERC, and had a 923 mbar pressure at peak confirmed via Recon.

We can only imagine what if Marie had recon...measured pressure could be somewhere near 900mb

[CrazyC83]

Dropsonde confirms 923mb (924/10 kt).

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 SEP 2014 Time : 173000 UTC
Lat : 20:32:35 N Lon : 108:19:54 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 930.2mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.2 6.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : -15.3C Cloud Region Temp : -70.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 137km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 38.6 degrees

[supercane4867]

Why 925?

EP, 15, 2014091418, , BEST, 0, 205N, 1085W, 110, 925, HU, 64, NEQ, 40, 40, 20, 30, 1005, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ODILE, D,

[Alyono]

probably a cat 3 hurricane. Dont think the NEQ will be more than 10 kts more intense than the SEQ.

This is likely due to the ongoing EWRC

[CrazyC83]

Agreed, this has a feel of a large, sprawling storm...something like Katrina or Rita were near landfall, or Dean was in the central Caribbean. The time of lowest pressure may NOT correlate with the time of the strongest winds - its winds were likely higher earlier, but the pressure not as deep.

[supercane4867]

Revised to 923mb, also winds down to Cat.3

EP, 15, 2014091418, , BEST, 0, 205N, 1085W, 110, 923, HU, 64, NEQ, 40, 40, 20, 30, 1005, 180, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ODILE, D,

[Ntxw]

Recon extrapolated 922mb, wow

Doesn't surprise me. Juliete 01 was also large, and had a pressure in the 940s as a Cat 2 in an ERC, and had a 923 mbar pressure at peak confirmed via Recon.

We can only imagine what if Marie had recon...measured pressure could be somewhere near 900mb

Yellow Evan stated could've been sub 900 in Marie had recon gone in during it's peak. Would agree with that assessment.

Anyway back to Odile,

[Yellow Evan]

probably a cat 3 hurricane. Dont think the NEQ will be more than 10 kts more intense than the SEQ.

This is likely due to the ongoing EWRC

I would not rule out Cat 4. Dvorak did good with this one overall w/ intensity. ADT overdid it though.

[supercane4867]

Best track has the peak intensity of Odile revised up to 120kt. Actual pressure at the time was likely near or below 920mb based on current data

EP, 15, 2014091412, , BEST, 0, 194N, 1077W, 120, 923, HU, 50, NEQ, 70, 70, 50, 60, 1005, 180, 15, 140, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, ODILE, D,

[Kingarabian]

EWRC for sure. Solid ring around its eye now.

[Kingarabian]

probably a cat 3 hurricane. Dont think the NEQ will be more than 10 kts more intense than the SEQ.

This is likely due to the ongoing EWRC

I would not rule out Cat 4. Dvorak did good with this one overall w/ intensity. ADT overdid it though.

Certainly, but it depends when that EWRC is completed. Anyone have a clue when it could've started?

[Yellow Evan]

Certainly, but it depends when that EWRC is completed. Anyone have a clue when it could've started?

Could be as early as 12z, but I don't have microwave proof.

[Alyono]

started before 12Z based upon microwave. It could be completing now

[Alyono]

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/htdocs_dyn_p ... .57pc.html