EPAC: ODILE - Remnants

[MGC]

Guess we are going to have to see how large the new eye of Odile will be after the hurricane finishes the ERC. Will there be sufficient time for the eye to contract before closest approach to Carbo? EPAC has been insane this season....MGC

[Ntxw]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 SEP 2014 Time : 150000 UTC
Lat : 20:02:59 N Lon : 108:02:25 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 932.6mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.5 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : +0.8C Cloud Region Temp : -70.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 137km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 38.5 degrees

[supercane4867]

CDO improved a bit in the recent frame

[Yellow Evan]

Cloud tops cooling again. Probably T6.5 worthy again.

[CrazyC83]

It will be interesting to see what Recon finds in a couple hours or so...

[supercane4867]

Cloud tops cooling again. Probably T6.5 worthy again.

It depends on how long the inner eyewall can hold. There will be no time left for it finishing the ERC and try to strengthen again

[supercane4867]

Major Hurricane Odile and an unnamed TS(?)

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 SEP 2014 Time : 153000 UTC
Lat : 20:08:57 N Lon : 108:07:15 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 930.3mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 6.5 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km

Center Temp : -8.5C Cloud Region Temp : -71.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 137km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 38.5 degrees

[CrazyC83]

Looks like about 125 kt based on that data, but Recon will determine the true intensity.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like about 125 kt based on that data, but Recon will determine the true intensity.

W/o recon, I'd go 120. TAFB and SAB were at 6.0 earlier.

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 SEP 2014 Time : 160000 UTC
Lat : 20:08:54 N Lon : 108:12:04 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 930.3mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 6.7 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km

Center Temp : +6.9C Cloud Region Temp : -71.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 137km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 38.4 degrees

[Ivanhater]

Another flood threat from Odile for Las Vegas. ..lately Vegas feels more like back home in Florida

[Yellow Evan]

Another flood threat from Odile for Las Vegas. ..lately Vegas feels more like back home in Florida

We need the rain.

[Yellow Evan]

Looks like the iCyclone team is going for this.

Hurricane ODILE, here we come! I'm with my cameradude, Steve Crighton, who just joined the team. We're at LAX. Our flight to Cabo San Lucas leaves in an hour. More soon.

[tolakram]

live vis loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=21&lon=-108&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=700&type=Animation&quality=95&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=6

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 SEP 2014 Time : 163000 UTC
Lat : 20:14:49 N Lon : 108:10:26 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 930.3mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 6.5 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : -9.2C Cloud Region Temp : -71.1C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 137km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 38.5 degrees

[Ivanhater]

Another flood threat from Odile for Las Vegas. ..lately Vegas feels more like back home in Florida

We need the rain.

Love the storms but not a fan of 95 washing out every time between Vegas and Indian Springs. Looking at the models, I'm wondering if this might be a bigger flood threat than for Norbert. Euro is interesting with cutting off a low from the main trough.

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
HURRICANE ODILE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 18A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
1100 AM PDT SUN SEP 14 2014

...MAJOR HURRICANE EXPECTED TO AFFECT SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA
TONIGHT AND MONDAY...
...AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTERS ENTERING THE EYE OF ODILE...

SUMMARY OF 1100 AM PDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...20.5N 108.5W
ABOUT 290 MI...470 KM WNW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES

[Yellow Evan]

Another flood threat from Odile for Las Vegas. ..lately Vegas feels more like back home in Florida

We need the rain.

Love the storms but not a fan of 95 washing out every time between Vegas and Indian Springs. Looking at the models, I'm wondering if this might be a bigger flood threat than for Norbert. Euro is interesting with cutting off a low from the main trough.

Possibly, given that Odile is stronger than Norbert.

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 SEP 2014 Time : 170000 UTC
Lat : 20:20:43 N Lon : 108:15:11 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 930.2mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.3 6.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -19.0C Cloud Region Temp : -70.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 137km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 38.5 degrees