EPAC: ODILE - Remnants

[Yellow Evan]

ZCZC MIATCPEP5 ALL
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BULLETIN
HURRICANE ODILE INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 16A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP152014
1100 PM PDT SAT SEP 13 2014

...ODILE BECOMES A CATEGORY THREE HURRICANE AS IT MOVES
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.4N 106.9W
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM WSW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 365 MI...590 KM SSE OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 335 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...952 MB...28.11 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM CABO SAN LAZARO TO LA PAZ

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF CABO SAN
LAZARO TO PUERTO SAN ANDRESITO
* THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
LORETO

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM MANZANILLO TO CABO CORRIENTES
* THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LA PAZ TO
LORETO

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* THE WEST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF PUERTO SAN
ANDRESITO TO PUNTA ABREOJOS
* THE EAST COAST OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR FROM NORTH OF LORETO TO
MULEGE

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...IN THIS CASE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
TO 36 HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE
RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA SHOULD
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ODILE.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM PDT...0600 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE ODILE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 106.9 WEST. ODILE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 13 MPH...20 KM/H. A GENERAL
MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH AN ADDITIONAL INCREASE IN FORWARD
SPEED IS EXPECTED TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ON THE FORECAST
TRACK...THE CORE OF ODILE WILL REMAIN OFFSHORE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING...AND THEN PASS NEAR OR
OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 120 MPH...
195 KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ODILE IS A CATEGORY THREE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ODILE IS RAPIDLY INTENSIFYING
AND ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST BEFORE THE HURRICANE
NEARS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR.

ODILE IS A LARGE HURRICANE. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 45 MILES...75 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE
WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 185 MILES...295 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 952 MB...28.11 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WIND...HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA BEGINNING AS EARLY AS SUNDAY NIGHT...AND ARE POSSIBLE IN THE
HURRICANE WATCH AREA LATE MONDAY. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTHWARD ACROSS BAJA CALIFORNIA SUR IN ADVANCE
OF THE HURRICANE CONDITIONS BEGINNING SUNDAY. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH AREA BY
MONDAY NIGHT. TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY OCCURRING ALONG
THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO IN THE WARNING AREA.

SURF...SWELLS FROM ODILE WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...AND WILL BEGIN TO
AFFECT SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND THE
SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA ON SUNDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT CONDITIONS. PLEASE
CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

RAINFALL...ODILE IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 10
INCHES WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF AROUND 15 INCHES IN AREAS OF
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN ACROSS THE MEXICAN STATES OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
SUR...COLIMA...JALISCO...AND WESTERN MICHOACAN. THESE RAINS ARE
LIKELY TO RESULT IN LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUDSLIDES.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN

NNNN

[Yellow Evan]

So they went with the adjusted ADT's.

[Socalsgrl]

Thank you all for the imagery you are posting. This is all so beautiful. I have been glued to your updates on Hurricane Norbert and now Odile. Thank you for keeping this thread up to date with new info when made available. Have there ever been Cat 4 or even Cat 5 hurricanes in the pacific before? If so, have any ever hit the California coast and what do you think the possibility is for Odile to make it that far north?

[Kingarabian]

So they went with the adjusted ADT's.

Dunno why they would with the Raw numbers still rising.

[Kingarabian]

Thank you all for the imagery you are posting. This is all so beautiful. I have been glued to your updates on Hurricane Norbert and now Odile. Thank you for keeping this thread up to date with new info when made available. Have there ever been Cat 4 or even Cat 5 hurricanes in the pacific before?

Yes. Every year we usually have an abundant amount of major canes'. Usually depends on the Nino episodes, but we get our fair share. The best thing about them is that they usually behave and go out to sea affecting no one.

If so, have any ever hit the California coast and what do you think the possibility is for Odile to make it that far north?

I think a tropical storm did hit soCal in the 1900s. Not in recent memory however. You'll probably feel some of Odile's remnants and the moisture that it's pulling upwards. Really hard for storms to get to Cali. Probably need a super super El-Nino.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Ntxw]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 SEP 2014 Time : 051500 UTC
Lat : 18:16:49 N Lon : 106:53:11 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 954.5mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.6 7.1

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : +0.0C Cloud Region Temp : -75.4C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 145km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 42.0 degrees

[HURAKAN]

very impressive

[Socalsgrl]

very impressive

Just absolutely amazing!!

[Yellow Evan]

So they went with the adjusted ADT's.

Dunno why they would with the Raw numbers still rising.

Lack of TAFB and SAB, they'd rather play it safe.

[Yellow Evan]

Thank you all for the imagery you are posting. This is all so beautiful. I have been glued to your updates on Hurricane Norbert and now Odile. Thank you for keeping this thread up to date with new info when made available. Have there ever been Cat 4 or even Cat 5 hurricanes in the pacific before? If so, have any ever hit the California coast and what do you think the possibility is for Odile to make it that far north?

Yes. Category 4 hurricane occur somewhat regularly (though were less common from 1995-2013). And once every few years, we get a Cat 5. So far this year, we have had 1 Category 5 and 5 Category 4's. Waters off the California coast are too cold to support hurricanes, and by that time Odile reaches the latitude, it would have long moved inland over Baja California.

[supercane4867]

TXPZ22 KNES 140621
TCSENP

A. 15E (ODILE)

B. 14/0600Z

C. 18.5N

D. 106.9W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T6.0/6.0/D2.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...OW EYE IS EMBEDDED IN AND SURROUNDED BY W FOR A DT=6.5. WHEN
0.5 IS ADDED FOR AN EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET IS 5.0 WHILE THE PT IS 5.5. FT IS
BASED ON CONSTRAINTS WHICH LIMIT CHANGES IN FT TO 1.0 OVER SIX HOURS. SIX
HOURLY AVERAGE DT DOES NOT JUSTIFY BREAKING RULES.

I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL

...MCCARTHY

[Ntxw]

Any semblance of dry air issues is long history. Also becoming very symmetrical.

[Yellow Evan]

Cloud tops look slightly warmer, but the eye is almost perfect.

[Socalsgrl]

Thank you YellowEvan! I wont complain about the moisture these storms bring into the socal coast as we are in dire need of it. I do find it interesting that we get such strong storms in the EPAC but rarely see any moisture from them. Local says that we are looking to get rain from Wednesday through Sat. Same was said about Norbert. All we saw was really strong winds for about 3 hours then lots of clouds but not a single drop. I am crossing my fingers that we get something from Odile, not to the extent that Arizona saw last week but every little bit helps.

[Yellow Evan]

20140914 0600 18.5 106.9 T6.0/6.0 15E ODILE

Should confirm this Cat 4 deal.

[Kingarabian]

:D Thank you YellowEvan! I wont complain about the moisture these storms bring into the socal coast as we are in dire need of it. I do find it interesting that we get such strong storms in the EPAC but rarely see any moisture from them. Local says that we are looking to get rain from Wednesday through Sat. Same was said about Norbert. All we saw was really strong winds for about 3 hours then lots of clouds but not a single drop. I am crossing my fingers that we get something from Odile, not to the extent that Arizona saw last week but every little bit helps.

Luck of the draw.

[Kingarabian]

20140914 0600 18.5 106.9 T6.0/6.0 15E ODILE

Should confirm this Cat 4 deal.

Aah.

If I knew it was going to be a fish I would cheer it on. Unfortunately that's not the case and I hope it stops and I pray that no one gets hurt.

[Socalsgrl]

I apologize as I am learning all of the terminology that is used and learning about hurricanes in general. But it was literally set as a Cat 3 just a short time ago. Did it really intensify to Cat 4 that quickly?

[Yellow Evan]

I apologize as I am learning all of the terminology that is used and learning about hurricanes in general. But it was literally set as a Cat 3 just a short time ago. Did it really intensify to Cat 4 that quickly?

This technically is not a Cat 4 yet. The National Hurricane Center has yet to update their database yet alone release it to the general public.

[Yellow Evan]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 SEP 2014 Time : 054500 UTC
Lat : 18:27:04 N Lon : 107:02:37 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 954.4mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.5 5.6 7.2

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 10 km

Center Temp : +1.9C Cloud Region Temp : -75.6C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 145km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 42.3 degrees

This may very well end up a Cat 5.