ATL: EDOUARD - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hammy]

I'm sticking to the Euro because the GFS/GEM have continued to show strengthening that never actually happens. Shear is already setting in, I'd give it 30% at best of being a hurricane. And as they say, never say never with tropical systems, so I'll give it a 0.001% chance of getting to Cat 3.

[HURAKAN]

would definitely bet on a hurricane here. 2014 batting .800

batting .750 (3 out of 4)

[tolakram]

live visible loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=19&lon=-37&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5

[hurricanehunter69]

would definitely bet on a hurricane here. 2014 batting .800

batting .750 (3 out of 4)

My post was about ..."IF" Edouard becomes hurricane........then 2014 would be 4 out of 5

[tolakram]

Extended Atlantic live vis loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20NHE&lat=19&lon=-39&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5

[tolakram]

Convection collapsed and the center is just about exposed now, though some convection is refiring in the last few frames.

live loop: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20HURRICANE&lat=20&lon=-37&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1024&height=768&type=Animation&quality=92&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=5&map=none

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
500 PM AST FRI SEP 12 2014

The unmanned NASA Global Hawk aircraft dropped a sonde and measured
a minimum pressure of 999 mb with 23 kt near the center of Edouard.
This leads to a minimum central pressure estimate of 998 mb. Another
sonde measured surface winds of 40 kt confirming earlier ASCAT data,
and this value will be used as the initial intensity. After some
disruption of the cloud pattern a couple of hours ago, satellite
images indicate that there is some reorganization going on at this
time. It appears that the shear has begun to weaken and the outflow
is expanding. Most of the intensity guidance calls for gradual
strengthening, and this is consistent with the decrease in shear,
and the fact that Edouard will be moving over a pool of anomalously
warm water during the next few days. The NHC forecast is similar to
the intensity consensus ICON.

Edouard has been moving toward the northwest or 305 degrees at 11
kt during the past few hours. Global models show an expansion of
the subtropical ridge to the north, and this pattern should force
the cyclone to move on a general west-northwest to northwest track
during the next 3 to 4 days. After that time, the ridge is forecast
to weaken, and a gradual turn to the north is anticipated. There
is high confidence on the northward turn over open Atlantic since
the dynamical guidance is tightly packed. The NHC forecast follows
closely the multi-model consensus TVCA and the average of the ECMWF
and the GFS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/2100Z 19.5N 44.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 20.5N 45.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 21.8N 47.8W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 23.2N 50.0W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 24.5N 52.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 27.5N 56.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 31.5N 57.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 17/1800Z 37.0N 53.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

[Hammy]

I'm noticing an increased use in drones for reconnaissance of storms further out at sea, hopefully this can replace satellite estimates for stronger systems to get a clearer picture of intensity.

[Alyono]

anyone have the global hawk recon data? Maybe we should post it here

[cycloneye]

Hopefully our friend Chris N Tampa comes and posts the data.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track: Up to 45kts.

AL, 06, 2014091300, , BEST, 0, 193N, 447W, 45, 997, TS

[Hammy]

00z Best Track: Up to 45kts.

AL, 06, 2014091300, , BEST, 0, 193N, 447W, 45, 997, TS

Looks like they stuck to 40kt/998mb for 11pm, oddly.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
1100 PM AST FRI SEP 12 2014

Edouard's cloud pattern has changed little in organization since
the last advisory. Moderately strong south-southwesterly shear is
still affecting the cyclone, as evidenced by the center location
near the southern edge of the main convective mass in microwave
imagery. However, convective cloud top temperatures have cooled
some, and the upper-level outflow has expanded to the north and
west. Dvorak intensity estimates range from T2.5/35 kt from TAFB and
SAB, while an earlier AMSU estimate suggested an intensity of around
45 kt. A blend of these data yields an initial intensity of 40 kt.

The center of Edouard was relocated a bit to the south and west
based on a 2113 UTC Windsat overpass. That pass, in combination
with previous fixes, suggests an initial motion estimate of 295/11.
Edouard should move generally west-northwestward for the next few
days under the influence of a mid-level ridge over the central
Atlantic. In about 3 days, the cyclone should reach a significant
break in the the same ridge and gradually turn northward between
55-58w with some decrease in forward speed. The cyclone should
accelerate northeastward once it becomes embedded in deep-layer
westerly flow over the north Atlantic toward the end of the forecast
period. The NHC track forecast is shifted to the left of the
previous one through 72 hours due to the the center relocation and a
westward trend in the track guidance this cycle. The track forecast
lies on the right side of the guidance envelope through 3 days and
is near the center of it after that, close to the multi-model
consensus.

Edouard has been moving through a sheared environment over the
tropical Atlantic, characterized by strong low- to mid-level
easterly trades and southerly flow aloft. Global models generally
forecast a reduction of this shear after another day or so, when
upper-level anticyclonic flow develops over the storm. In a couple
of days, upper-level troughs to the east and west of Edouard could
allow the formation of dual outflow channels while the cyclone is
over sea surface temperatures around 30 deg C. This should allow
intensification to hurricane strength. After recurvature, the storm
motion and shear vectors are likely to align which should allow
Edouard to maintain its intensity until it encounters increasing
shear and cooler waters by day 5. The NHC wind speed forecast is
nearly unchanged relative to the previous, except to show a slightly
higher peak intensity in agreement with the latest guidance.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/0300Z 19.5N 45.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/1200Z 20.4N 46.7W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 14/0000Z 21.8N 48.7W 50 KT 60 MPH
36H 14/1200Z 23.1N 50.8W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 15/0000Z 24.6N 53.1W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 16/0000Z 27.9N 56.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 17/0000Z 32.2N 56.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 18/0000Z 37.0N 52.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[hurricanes1234]

Will shear relax enough for this to attain the anticipated intensity? I'd say both yes and no, yes because it is forecast to do so, and no because wind shear usually lingers or stays for longer than expected.

[Hammy]

Inner core looks like it's collapsing over the last hour or so.

[abajan]

A beautiful system to look at, especially since it doesn't appear like it will be a threat to anyone. By the way, it's very interesting to read the ProMet comments in this thread. Start from page 1 and work your way through all of the pages and you'll see what I mean.

This post is NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org. For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM EDOUARD DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062014
1100 AM AST SAT SEP 13 2014

Although Edouard has lost most of the deep convection, it has a
vigorous low-level circulation. Dvorak t-numbers still support an
initial intensity of 45 kt. There are some arc clouds currently
moving away from the main circulation suggesting that no important
changes in intensity are expected during the next few hours.
However, the shear is decreasing and this is already reflected in
the current better defined upper-level outflow. The low shear, in
combination with the pool of anomalous warm waters ahead of Edouard,
should result in strengthening, and the cyclone should become a
hurricane on Sunday or early Monday. The NHC forecast follows the
guidance and is very close to the intensity consensus ICON.

The best estimate of the initial motion is toward the northwest or
305 degrees at 11 kt. The steering environment has not changed, with
the cyclone's motion being controlled by the subtropical ridge.
This pattern will keep Edouard on the same general track for the
next 2 to 3 days. After that time, the subtropical ridge will weaken
and move east allowing Edouard to turn north, and then recurve
into the mid-latitude westerlies. The NHC forecast is close
to the multi-model consensus TVCA, which has been very consistent in
turning the cyclone northward over the Central Atlantic for the past
several model cycles.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 13/1500Z 21.7N 46.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 14/0000Z 22.7N 48.3W 50 KT 60 MPH
24H 14/1200Z 24.2N 50.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
36H 15/0000Z 25.7N 52.6W 65 KT 75 MPH
48H 15/1200Z 27.1N 55.0W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 16/1200Z 30.5N 57.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 17/1200Z 35.0N 55.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 18/1200Z 40.0N 47.5W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Avila

[CrazyC83]

It seems shear doesn't want to relax at all...though the spiral banding is improving. Maybe 50 kt?

[cycloneye]

Yes.

06L EDOUARD 140913 1800 22.3N 47.0W ATL 50 995

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Edouard may have the best shot at becoming a major hurricane this season. Although there still some signs of wind shear, the environment is steadily becoming more favorable as Edouard moves west-northwestward, and we should see a huge anticyclone balloon atop the cyclone over the coming days. Its best prospects for intensification will likely come when it's recurving east of Bermuda, when it will be in a favorable juxtaposition to the jet stream to its north (which should enhance upper-level divergence and provide a nice poleward outflow jet). Also, an upper-level low northeast of the Bahamas should also provide good "breathing" for the storm. The 12z GFS brings this down to 967mb, while the 12z ECMWF brings this down to 955mb.