Texas Fall-2014

[gboudx]

Yes, the rain gods frown on me as the ice gods frown on you.

It's the Horizon Rd to 205 to 548 to Lake Ray Hubbard version of the Bermuda Triangle.

My gauge showed 1.3" from last Saturday night. Maybe we get the rain because Ray Hubbard is dry ground on the northern end.

[weatherdude1108]

I just heard what I thought was a raccoon getting on roof. I stepped outside to let dog do her business. There were HUGE raindrop markings on the patio. I looked up, and I saw partly cloudy skies and stars. Then a few more big drops rained down while I was out there. Weirdest thing! It is like the atmosphere is transforming itself on top of me or something(?). If the drops are that big with a few sprinkles, we are going to have an efficient rain machine later!

Looks like it is a collision of the sea breeze and the outflow boundary. Neato!

SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
940 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

WILLIAMSON-KERR-BANDERA-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...GEORGETOWN...KERRVILLE...BANDERA...
BOERNE...BLANCO...SAN MARCOS...AUSTIN...BASTROP...GIDDINGS
940 PM CDT THU SEP 11 2014

.NOW...
THROUGH 11 PM...THE SEA BREEZE FROM THE SOUTH AND AN OUTFLOW
BOUNDARY FROM THE NORTH ARE COLLIDING ACROSS THE AREA FROM
GEORGETOWN TO KERRVILLE. THIS INTERACTION WILL CAUSE ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WHICH WILL PRODUCE INFREQUENT LIGHTNING...WIND
GUSTS TO 30 MPH...AND MODERATE RAIN. RAINFALL TOTALS WILL BE UP TO
HALF AN INCH.

[Portastorm]

OK, so the next seven days for Texas weather, I think, could be a wild ride. Here's what we have on the table:

* Current front dropping south slowly which will drop temps some 15-20 degrees as well as drop 1-2" of rain on many areas

* A tropical wave moving onto the Texas coast and adding moisture to an atmosphere already moistened from Pacific tropical activity

* Front washes out over south Texas and a moist environment remains with "ripples" of upper level energy traversing the state west to east and creating scattered rain periods

* A developing low in the Bay of Campeche right now which no one really has mentioned

* 92L, at the moment looking weak, but progged by the medium-range models to move west across the Gulf under a developing midlevel ridge, and possibly spinning up in the WGOM by midweek.

* A very strong Kelvin wave which has helped spin up several Pacific storms in the last two weeks and will soon be moving eastward into the Gulf/Carribbean, likely enhancing tropical cyclone development in the basin ... somewhere relatively close.

That enough for ya?!

[weatherdude1108]

That is music to my ears and snowflakes to my eyes Porta!

I was a little bummed looking at the forecast first thing this morning and seeing only a 40% chance of rain today. I was thinking in my mind ("Why am I not surprised?" ). Last night it said an 80% chance for today. This was the Weather Channel app. fyi. That may explain it, I should know better.lol

But then I heard on the radio on the way to work this morning the local KXAN meteorologist on air said 60% chance of rain , some heavy with thunderstorms. I guess I'll split the difference. But again, according to your research and discussion, it would seem the odds are in our favor for significant rains. A lot of people are sure desperate.

The EWX office has even posted a couple pics on their Facebook page of their own rain gauge at their weather office. It shows the rain gauge getting swallowed by the soil cracks where the gauge is setting. Yes, water is good and needed, as long as it is not too much too fast of course.

[Ntxw]

I've had a lot of friends get confused with this so I thought I'd mention here. Remember that a percentage for precip forecast does not tell you how much rain falls. That is something you have to read wfo discussions for. Percentages are merely a geographical value. If you see 60% for Austin means that the nws is expecting 60% to experience rain while 40% will not of their forecasting area, not how much. Precip is 0% or 100%, either it rains or it doesn't. There's no such thing as 40% of rain, rest being dust, sheep, rabbits

[Portastorm]

I've had a lot of friends get confused with this so I thought I'd mention here. Remember that a percentage for precip forecast does not tell you how much rain falls. That is something you have to read wfo discussions for. Percentages are merely a geographical value. If you see 60% for Austin means that the nws is expecting 60% to experience rain while 40% will not of their forecasting area, not how much. Precip is 0% or 100%, either it rains or it doesn't. There's no such thing as 40% of rain, rest being dust, sheep, rabbits

Good point, Ntxw. Those POPs are saying that at the given time of forecast, 60% of EWX's area are likely to see rain. High POPs usually are not seen with convective events. Actually you will see a 90% or 100% chance of rain if you end up with a stratiform rain event or massive overrunning ... things that usually occur more October through March.

[Rgv20]

Going to be interesting how much rain we actually get!

FLOOD WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
422 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

...HEAVY TO TORRENTIAL RAIN THREAT TONIGHT AND SATURDAY...

.THE COMBINATION OF A COLD FRONT, UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA AND
A TROPICAL WAVE WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
TROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE RIO GRANDE
VALLEY TONIGHT AND COMBINE WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH AND LOW
PRESSURE TROUGH EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LOWER TEXAS COAST
SATURDAY MORNING. INTENSE RAINFALL TO FOCUS FIRST ALONG THE COAST
AND ACROSS LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT INTO SATURDAY
MORNING THEN SHIFT WESTWARD AS THE COLD FRONT PULLS UP STATIONARY
LATER SATURDAY AFTERNOON. FLOODING WILL BE LIKELY WHERE THE HEAVIEST
AND PROLONG RAIN OCCURS.

TXZ248-252>257-121900-
/O.NEW.KBRO.FF.A.0002.140913T0500Z-140914T0000Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.OO/
ZAPATA-STARR-HIDALGO-INLAND WILLACY-INLAND CAMERON-
COASTAL WILLACY-COASTAL CAMERON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ZAPATA...RIO GRANDE CITY...ROMA...
MCALLEN...EDINBURG...PHARR...MISSION...WESLACO...RAYMONDVILLE...
BROWNSVILLE...HARLINGEN...PORT MANSFIELD...PORT ISABEL...
SOUTH PADRE ISLAND...LAGUNA HEIGHTS...LAGUNA VISTA
422 AM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

...FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR A PORTION OF DEEP SOUTH TEXAS...
INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...COASTAL CAMERON...COASTAL
WILLACY...HIDALGO...INLAND CAMERON...INLAND WILLACY...STARR
AND ZAPATA.

* FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING

* ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE TO COMBINE WITH A SURFACE COLD FRONT
AND A TROPICAL WAVE PRODUCING AVERAGE RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 2 TO
4 INCHES WITH ISOLATED AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES OR MORE.

* FLASH FLOODING COULD LEAD TO WATER COVERING ROADWAYS AND
INTERSECTIONS AND MAKING TRAVEL VERY DANGEROUS. LOW LYING AREAS
WILL BY INUNDATED BY FLOODING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THAT FLOODING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. RESIDENTS LIVING IN FLOOD PRONE AREAS SHOULD TAKE
ACTION TO PROTECT PROPERTY.

&&

$$

[BrokenGlassRepublicn]

Watching the radar is making me sad. The Red River counties are getting a nice soaking this morning...DFW, not so much.

[texas1836]

Watching the radar is making me sad. The Red River counties are getting a nice soaking this morning...DFW, not so much.

Kind of a bummer in McKinney too, with only 0.08 inches of rain. I'm sure hoping it picks up.

[weatherdude1108]

I've had a lot of friends get confused with this so I thought I'd mention here. Remember that a percentage for precip forecast does not tell you how much rain falls. That is something you have to read wfo discussions for. Percentages are merely a geographical value. If you see 60% for Austin means that the nws is expecting 60% to experience rain while 40% will not of their forecasting area, not how much. Precip is 0% or 100%, either it rains or it doesn't. There's no such thing as 40% of rain, rest being dust, sheep, rabbits

Good point, Ntxw. Those POPs are saying that at the given time of forecast, 60% of EWX's area are likely to see rain. High POPs usually are not seen with convective events. Actually you will see a 90% or 100% chance of rain if you end up with a stratiform rain event or massive overrunning ... things that usually occur more October through March.

That is interesting! I didn't know that convective events usually do not tend to have high pop percentages, versus stratiform/overrunning rains, which tend to have higher pop percentages(?). I guess that makes sense with convective events since it is hard to pinpoint the location and geographical range of a thunderstorm. Stratiform events are much more predictable.
I just learned something today! It is easy for me to confuse the percentages and what they mean, especially since it is not mentioned often in the news or in school.
This really is a cool site to learn from and to contribute to weather events/trivia/history. Thank you all (and everyone else) for your educational blurbs and interjections to keep everyone up to speed!

[Ellsey]

Watching the radar is making me sad. The Red River counties are getting a nice soaking this morning...DFW, not so much.

Kind of a bummer in McKinney too, with only 0.08 inches of rain. I'm sure hoping it picks up.

I've had .12 so far here. Not huge, but every bit counts.

[dhweather]

The precipitation forecast for DFW this week, in one picture:

[weatherdude1108]

Things are starting to pop on the radar in this area.

[weatherdude1108]

I've noticed something new the weather service down here (EWX), at least the past couple days, has been putting this down on their forecasts:

" REMEMBER...WHEN THUNDER ROARS...GO
INDOORS!"

Keeps them entertained I guess.

[weatherdude1108]

I have a feeling the main event is south and east based on the front location. This area does not need it as badly as north and west. And so it goes. We'll see.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 122031
AFDEWX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
331 PM CDT FRI SEP 12 2014

...LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN AND LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING POSSIBLE...

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT)...
AREA RADARS SHOW CONVECTIVE CELLS ALONG AND AHEAD OF A FRONTAL
PASSAGE THAT EXTENDS FROM PANDALE TO ROCKSPRINGS TO CEDAR PARK TO
GEORGETOWN LINE. THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH
SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH LATE TONIGHT. ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAINS
AREA...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING AS RICH TROPICAL AIRMASS PUSHES INLAND FROM
THE NORTHWEST GULF WATERS. BY THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS AND EARLY
EVENING...THESE TWO FEATURES ABOVE MENTIONED ARE FORECAST TO MERGE
NEARBY INTERSTATE 35 AND SLOWLY PUSH TO THE SOUTHEAST. LOCALLY
HEAVY RAIN OF 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED OVER MOST
AREAS FOR THE NEXT 48 HOURS WITH SHORT DURATION TORRENTIAL RAIN
OCCURRING MAINLY FROM 6 PM THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH MIDNIGHT SATURDAY
ALONG I-35 AND FROM MIDNIGHT TO 7 AM SATURDAY ALONG AND SOUTH OF
HIGHWAY 90. HOWEVER...LOCALIZED 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAINFALL
ACCUMULATIONS CAN`T BE RULE OUT.

ONCE AGAIN...THE MAIN SAFETY CONCERN FOR THIS EVENING AND
SATURDAY IS OUTDOOR EVENTS...PRIMARILY FRIDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL GAMES
AND SATURDAY YOUTH SPORTS LEAGUES. ANYONE PLANNING TO ATTEND THESE
EVENTS...ESPECIALLY THOSE RESPONSIBLE FOR SAFETY...SHOULD HAVE
ALTERNATE PLANS IN MIND FOR LIGHTNING DELAYS. IN ADDITION...TRAVEL
MAY BE SIGNIFICANTLY SLOWED BY MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN AND WATER IN
LOW-LYING AREAS...ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING.

IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...A COOLER AIRMASS IS ANTICIPATED TO
ARRIVE ACROSS THE AREA WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE LOWER 60S ACROSS
THE HILL COUNTRY AND MID TO UPPER 60S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.LONG TERM (SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY)...
RAIN CHANCES CONTINUE THIS WEEKEND INTO LATE NEXT WEEK AS TROPICAL
AIRMASS LINGERS AROUND SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS. A RIDGE DEVELOPS OVER
THE WESTERN U.S. TOWARD THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN DRY WEATHER AND A RETURN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

[Ntxw]

Rainfall for the I-20 corridor mostly was a dud, disappointing. Good thing it feels and smells like fall, been in mid 60s since second front came through.

[iorange55]

It feels fantastic outside. I've been trying to find every excuse to go outside. I think I have checked the mail three times today.

[South Texas Storms]

Showers and thunderstorms are currently popping up all across central Texas. 4:30 pm radar image:

[Portastorm]

Craziest thing ... it's raining here in SW Austin and I could swear the rain drops are shaped like little Dolly Partons!

Don't worry dhweather, you'll get your rain this fall and winter. You will. The PWC guarantees it!

[gboudx]

The PWC guarantees it!

Now we're doomed.