Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season

[Ntxw]

I think you are being too pessimistic with your assessment. The moisture is still there.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html

It may sound pessimistic but most of my posts generally rely on data and statistics the most I can. If it looks good, that's where I'd lean but it doesn't. I avoid using gut and personal input as much as possible because usually that's when busts happen. That's what most guidance show early next week whether we like it or not and not what I want it to be, what it is now isn't what it may look like in a few days. Just the messenger putting forth data.

[WPBWeather]

I think you are being too pessimistic with your assessment. The moisture is still there.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html

It may sound pessimistic but most of my posts generally rely on data and statistics the most I can. If it looks good, that's where I'd lean but it doesn't. I avoid using gut and personal input as much as possible because usually that's when busts happen. That's what most guidance show early next week whether we like it or not and not what I want it to be, what it is now isn't what it may look like in a few days. Just the messenger putting forth data.

That is a good approach to work by. But, as the data show, the moisture is still there.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I think you are being too pessimistic with your assessment. The moisture is still there.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html

It may sound pessimistic but most of my posts generally rely on data and statistics the most I can. If it looks good, that's where I'd lean but it doesn't. I avoid using gut and personal input as much as possible because usually that's when busts happen. That's what most guidance show early next week whether we like it or not and not what I want it to be, what it is now isn't what it may look like in a few days. Just the messenger putting forth data.

That is a good approach to work by. But, as the data show, the moisture is still there.

You linked to a site with a bunch of graphics without explaining which image you're viewing to come to the conclusion that "the moisture is still there." What are you looking at?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I think you are being too pessimistic with your assessment. The moisture is still there.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html

It may sound pessimistic but most of my posts generally rely on data and statistics the most I can. If it looks good, that's where I'd lean but it doesn't. I avoid using gut and personal input as much as possible because usually that's when busts happen. That's what most guidance show early next week whether we like it or not and not what I want it to be, what it is now isn't what it may look like in a few days. Just the messenger putting forth data.

Yep. In addition to the strongest convectively-suppressed kelvin wave of the season passing through next week, we've also got the upward MJO in the West Pacific, meaning that the East Pacific and Atlantic will be under large-scale downward motion. Double negatives.

Maybe some improvement by the end of the month into October.

[Cyclenall]

Look how quiet Africa is now as we head towards the peak:

*Cut*

Was 2013 like that during peak season? Can't remember.

The season might be close to being over - it seems the active period was very surpressed and the less active period hurricane-free, and if true the long-term forecasts were wrong again, even with their reduced numbers.

For me, this season was over before it began. This was established in December 2013. 3 hurricanes doesn't tickle me if all of them form and track in that west-mid Atlantic corridor...I don't like those. If there is a major, my bet is this season will deliver it straight right there yet again just to toy with us. For example, I'd be floored if there was a CAT3+ in the Caribbean in September...that's too interesting, can't have that!

When will the Atlantic see a hurricane like this again:


Instead of this all the time?:


Obviously that track of the 1947 one is extremely rare due to where it began and the time of year. Look how high in latitude it got in mid-September without being picked up. Its the eternal trough that brings crappy weather here at home, and makes the tropics what they are now.

[WPBWeather]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html[/quote]

It may sound pessimistic but most of my posts generally rely on data and statistics the most I can. If it looks good, that's where I'd lean but it doesn't. I avoid using gut and personal input as much as possible because usually that's when busts happen. That's what most guidance show early next week whether we like it or not and not what I want it to be, what it is now isn't what it may look like in a few days. Just the messenger putting forth data.[/quote]

That is a good approach to work by. But, as the data show, the moisture is still there.[/quote]
You linked to a site with a bunch of graphics without explaining which image you're viewing to come to the conclusion that "the moisture is still there." What are you looking at?[/quote]

I am looking at the moisture train that has been present for the past two weeks and is predicted to extend through September 9th. The graphics are pretty straightforward "upward motion in the Pacific and Kelvin waves notwithstanding."

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... FP_048.gif

[StrongWind]

Look how quiet Africa is now as we head towards the peak:

*Cut*

Was 2013 like that during peak season? Can't remember.

The season might be close to being over - it seems the active period was very surpressed and the less active period hurricane-free, and if true the long-term forecasts were wrong again, even with their reduced numbers.

For me, this season was over before it began. This was established in December 2013. 3 hurricanes doesn't tickle me if all of them form and track in that west-mid Atlantic corridor...I don't like those. If there is a major, my bet is this season will deliver it straight right there yet again just to toy with us. For example, I'd be floored if there was a CAT3+ in the Caribbean in September...that's too interesting, can't have that!

When will the Atlantic see a hurricane like this again:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Instead of this all the time?:
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Obviously that track of the 1947 one is extremely rare due to where it began and the time of year. Look how high in latitude it got in mid-September without being picked up. Its the eternal trough that brings crappy weather here at home, and makes the tropics what they are now.

Why don't you leave South Florida & the rest of everywhere out of your hurricane fantasies? I don't get excited when a Polar Vortex freezes people to death up North. You want interesting? How about a major hurricane hitting Canada? That should be exciting for everyone and give them something to analyze for years. My requirements for a "successful" hurricane season are:

1. Nothing hits S. Fl. (Ok, I'm selfish)
2. Nothing severe hits anywhere populated.
3. Places that need rain get some, but not too much.

This is not a professional meteorological forecast or opinion - just my own.

[Cyclenall]

Why don't you leave South Florida & the rest of everywhere out of your hurricane fantasies? I don't get excited when a Polar Vortex freezes people to death up North. You want interesting? How about a major hurricane hitting Canada? That should be exciting for everyone and give them something to analyze for years. My requirements for a "successful" hurricane season are:

1. Nothing hits S. Fl. (Ok, I'm selfish)
2. Nothing severe hits anywhere populated.
3. Places that need rain get some, but not too much.

This is not a professional meteorological forecast or opinion - just my own.

I was just waiting for someone to come and pounce right on that post because it showed a track hitting somewhere in an example. I can't use any example that someone on here won't take offense to. Not surprised unfortunately. If I showed a westward track to Texas, they would get offended, and so on. The polar vortex is more common than one might think as it dips down in the winter months, doesn't usually kill people. You can want that and it wouldn't bother me in the slightest, because what weather people desire has no effect in reality.

[ninel conde]

It's coming folks. By early this week, whatever is out there will probably get squashed by sinking air outbreak. Satellite will gradually look bleak for a few days.



Currently

This ought to skedaddle out of our basin by October, at which point the question becomes: how powerful are the continental troughs going to be at that point? The main difference between analogs for Lili, Opal, Ida, or Rina are just trough positioning.

this isnt any of those years. oct will be another snoozer. sept 0/0/0 possible.

[ninel conde]

0z GFS still has a massive low in the NW atlantic and super high over greenland. forget in close. clearly, forecasts of a NW atlantic ridge were erroneous.

[WeatherGuesser]

When will the Atlantic see a hurricane like this again:

Hopefully never.

[ninel conde]

Why don't you leave South Florida & the rest of everywhere out of your hurricane fantasies? I don't get excited when a Polar Vortex freezes people to death up North. You want interesting? How about a major hurricane hitting Canada? That should be exciting for everyone and give them something to analyze for years. My requirements for a "successful" hurricane season are:

1. Nothing hits S. Fl. (Ok, I'm selfish)
2. Nothing severe hits anywhere populated.
3. Places that need rain get some, but not too much.

This is not a professional meteorological forecast or opinion - just my own.

I was just waiting for someone to come and pounce right on that post because it showed a track hitting somewhere in an example. I can't use any example that someone on here won't take offense to. Not surprised unfortunately. If I showed a westward track to Texas, they would get offended, and so on. The polar vortex is more common than one might think as it dips down in the winter months, doesn't usually kill people. You can want that and it wouldn't bother me in the slightest, because what weather people desire has no effect in reality.

well said.

[Ntxw]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/al_rTCFP_048.gif

You posted a probability of TC formation link. I'm not sure how that correlates with raw total moisture? There has been no formation within the last 24 hours as within those probabilities even in near term. Vertical Instability is the better tool as it is the relationship between temperature and moisture. It improved recently with favorable MJO and Kelvin waves as posted by cycloneye however it is still below normal. Obviously the temperature part of the equation isn't the problem.

[psyclone]

10 years ago hurricane Frances wrecked Florida's Labor day weekend. This year it is awesome. If you live in hurricane alley, head out to your beach and enjoy the tranquility. It is beautiful. As much as I enjoy tracking storms the down time is just as good. What's not to love about flat, warm, translucent seas with a water temp in the upper 80's? As Kramer once said on Seinfeld, "I'll take it!"

[WeatherGuesser]

10 years ago hurricane Frances wrecked Florida's Labor day weekend. This year it is awesome. If you live in hurricane alley, head out to your beach and enjoy the tranquility. It is beautiful. As much as I enjoy tracking storms the down time is just as good. What's not to love about flat, warm, translucent seas with a water temp in the upper 80's? As Kramer once said on Seinfeld, "I'll take it!"

Or Hunter: "Works for me."

[WPBWeather]

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/current/al_rTCFP_048.gif

You posted a probability of TC formation link. I'm not sure how that correlates with raw total moisture? There has been no formation within the last 24 hours as within those probabilities even in near term. Vertical Instability is the better tool as it is the relationship between temperature and moisture. It improved recently with favorable MJO and Kelvin waves as posted by cycloneye however it is still below normal. Obviously the temperature part of the equation isn't the problem.

Moisture train STILL there today and is predicted to stay until Sept. 9th. No Kelvin waves need apply.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... _small.png

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/da ... FP_048.gif

[MetroMike]

10 years ago hurricane Frances wrecked Florida's Labor day weekend. This year it is awesome. If you live in hurricane alley, head out to your beach and enjoy the tranquility. It is beautiful. As much as I enjoy tracking storms the down time is just as good. What's not to love about flat, warm, translucent seas with a water temp in the upper 80's? As Kramer once said on Seinfeld, "I'll take it!"

Or Hunter: "Works for me."

Doesn't work for me....If this is a hobby to you it stinks that we cannot follow and track tropical threats to the conus. We can also learn more about how these systems work.To me that is usually something that makes this time of year interesting and really gets me excited and used to look forward to. So much for my hobby it seems here in Florida.

[ConvergenceZone]

I've dropped my name storm prediction from "G" down to "F"...
I think we will get storms "D" and "E" in September in the Gulf or Carib(obviously not the Atlantic), although who knows how strong the storms that do form will be, and then storm "F" will form in October before the season shuts down and goes on record as one of the least active seasons in history.........

[tolakram]

GFS and Euro now have something moving off of Africa about the same time next week.

Last time ninel said 0/0/0 for a month we got a storm.

So take your objective spectacles and take a look at what's going on. What were the negatives looked at earlier in the season? Has anything changed? What were the positives, if any? have they changed?

Instability is still below normal but higher than at any other point int he season.



Go here for all the images: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html

Shear also remains below normal in most zones.

Are we looking at a forecast for the future that has failed us in the past?

I'm not making a prediction here, just pondering if we really know what to expect.

[Ntxw]

GFS and Euro now have something moving off of Africa about the same time next week.

Last time ninel said 0/0/0 for a month we got a storm.

So take your objective spectacles and take a look at what's going on. What were the negatives looked at earlier in the season? Has anything changed? What were the positives, if any? have they changed?

Instability is still below normal but higher than at any other point int he season.

Shear also remains below normal in most zones.

Are we looking at a forecast for the future that has failed us in the past?

I'm not making a prediction here, just pondering if we really know what to expect.

We'll all find out soon. September is here, this is the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season. So predictions become less meaningful now, it's time to show it.