Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
Re:
ninel conde wrote:i have to disagree. 18z gfs is absolutely horrid for development. huge low in the nw atlantic in the exact place where so many, including JB, said a huge ridge would be dominant.
the GFS did not show Cristobal developing until about five days prior; nothing beyond a week really holds any water.
0 likes
The above post is not official and should not be used as such. It is the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is not endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
- gatorcane
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 23691
- Age: 47
- Joined: Sun Mar 13, 2005 3:54 pm
- Location: Boca Raton, FL
Re:
ninel conde wrote:i have to disagree. 18z gfs is absolutely horrid for development. huge low in the nw atlantic in the exact place where so many, including JB, said a huge ridge would be dominant.
What GFS run are you looking at? The 18Z I am looking at shows a Cape Verde system that heads west across the Atlantic and becomes a hurricane heading WNW in the SW Atlantic with a ridge over the Eastern United States. It's all long-range and I don't believe this one bit considering how awful the GFS has been this year in it's genesis predictions, but I am not seeing any huge low you are talking about.
0 likes
-
- Admin
- Posts: 20010
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re:
ninel conde wrote:i have to disagree. 18z gfs is absolutely horrid for development. huge low in the nw atlantic in the exact place where so many, including JB, said a huge ridge would be dominant.
You mean Cristobal, the hurricane that just transitioned to extra tropical?
0 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
Re: Re:
gatorcane wrote:ninel conde wrote:i have to disagree. 18z gfs is absolutely horrid for development. huge low in the nw atlantic in the exact place where so many, including JB, said a huge ridge would be dominant.
What GFS run are you looking at? The 18Z I am looking at shows a Cape Verde system that heads west across the Atlantic and becomes a hurricane heading WNW in the SW Atlantic with a ridge over the Eastern United States. It's all long-range and I don't believe this one bit considering how awful the GFS has been this year in it's genesis predictions, but I am not seeing any huge low you are talking about.
i never go out more than 7 days and it shows nothing. lets not forget a few days ago the GFS was showing a rather strong cane in the esat atlantic.
0 likes
Re: Re:
tolakram wrote:ninel conde wrote:i have to disagree. 18z gfs is absolutely horrid for development. huge low in the nw atlantic in the exact place where so many, including JB, said a huge ridge would be dominant.
You mean Cristobal, the hurricane that just transitioned to extra tropical?
no, cristobal will be long gone. its just the same low pressure pattern that has dominated the nw atlantic since 2006
0 likes
Re: Re:
gatorcane wrote:ninel conde wrote:i have to disagree. 18z gfs is absolutely horrid for development. huge low in the nw atlantic in the exact place where so many, including JB, said a huge ridge would be dominant.
What GFS run are you looking at? The 18Z I am looking at shows a Cape Verde system that heads west across the Atlantic and becomes a hurricane heading WNW in the SW Atlantic with a ridge over the Eastern United States. It's all long-range and I don't believe this one bit considering how awful the GFS has been this year in it's genesis predictions, but I am not seeing any huge low you are talking about.
this huge low south of greenland
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=168hr
0 likes
-
- Category 1
- Posts: 343
- Joined: Sun May 16, 2010 5:21 pm
- Location: New Orleans
Re: Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season
GFS has Two possible landfallin storms.....just sayin? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr= ... =&ps=model
0 likes
- Yellow Evan
- Professional-Met
- Posts: 16143
- Age: 27
- Joined: Fri Jul 15, 2011 12:48 pm
- Location: Henderson, Nevada/Honolulu, HI
- Contact:
- CFLHurricane
- Category 1
- Posts: 346
- Joined: Thu Mar 27, 2014 5:56 pm
- Location: Floriduh
Re:
ninel conde wrote:SOI is tanking
SOI values for 30 Aug 2014 Average for last 30 days -10.0
Average for last 90 days -5.3
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -26.0
im quite confident the season will also end quite early.
No, because Hurricane Andrew.
Lol

0 likes
I'm not a meteorologist, but I did stay at a motel 8.
Re: Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season
Look at this, it's Labor day weekend, one of the most active times climo for tropical cyclones. There is none on Planet Earth. Only little 99L. The suppressed Kelvin wave has done a job even in the hard to quiet down WPAC and it is moving. Got to be mind boggling.

Source: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/

Source: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/
0 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
-
- Admin
- Posts: 20010
- Age: 62
- Joined: Sun Aug 27, 2006 8:23 pm
- Location: Florence, KY (name is Mark)
Re: Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season
Just going on averages, we should have expected a series of below normal seasons. The conflict seems to be we thought we could forcast seasonal activity better than we can. Apparently. 

0 likes
M a r k
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- - - - -
Join us in chat: Storm2K Chatroom Invite. Android and IOS apps also available.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. Posts are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K.org. For official information and forecasts, please refer to NHC and NWS products.
- WPBWeather
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 535
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Jul 18, 2013 12:33 pm
Re:
ninel conde wrote:SOI is tanking
SOI values for 30 Aug 2014 Average for last 30 days -10.0
Average for last 90 days -5.3
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -26.0
im quite confident the season will also end quite early.
No more hurricanes ever, ever, ever again!! Well, until next weekend anyway...
0 likes
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 145366
- Age: 68
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season
At least there is more moisture and not like a desert in the MDR.



0 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Re:
ninel conde wrote:out to 168 on the 0z GFS massive high over greenland and low over nw atlantic. no in close development with that pattern. JB has dropped talking about any hints of any activity.
Just so I understand, is it your contention that conditions for Atlantic development (as well as potential U.S. landfall risk) are particularly volatile and therefore unlikely specifically due to present SURFACE low pressure conditions at or near 60N and between 40W - 60W? Question aside, any idea on what Central Florida restaurants JB finds particularly good?
0 likes
Andy D
(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)
(For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.)
Re: Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season
It's coming folks. By early this week, whatever is out there will probably get squashed by sinking air outbreak. Satellite will gradually look bleak for a few days.

Currently


Currently

0 likes
The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
- somethingfunny
- ChatStaff
- Posts: 3926
- Age: 37
- Joined: Thu May 31, 2007 10:30 pm
- Location: McKinney, Texas
Re: Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season
Ntxw wrote:It's coming folks. By early this week, whatever is out there will probably get squashed by sinking air outbreak. Satellite will gradually look bleak for a few days.
Currently
This ought to skedaddle out of our basin by October, at which point the question becomes: how powerful are the continental troughs going to be at that point? The main difference between analogs for Lili, Opal, Ida, or Rina are just trough positioning.
0 likes
I am not a meteorologist, and any posts made by me are not official forecasts or to be interpreted as being intelligent. These posts are just my opinions and are probably silly opinions.
- WPBWeather
- S2K Supporter
- Posts: 535
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Jul 18, 2013 12:33 pm
Re: Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season
Ntxw wrote:It's coming folks. By early this week, whatever is out there will probably get squashed by sinking air outbreak. Satellite will gradually look bleak for a few days.
Currently
I think you are being too pessimistic with your assessment. The moisture is still there.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html
0 likes