Thoughts on rest of 2014 N Atlantic Hurricane season

[ninel conde]

i have to disagree. 18z gfs is absolutely horrid for development. huge low in the nw atlantic in the exact place where so many, including JB, said a huge ridge would be dominant.

[Hammy]

i have to disagree. 18z gfs is absolutely horrid for development. huge low in the nw atlantic in the exact place where so many, including JB, said a huge ridge would be dominant.

the GFS did not show Cristobal developing until about five days prior; nothing beyond a week really holds any water.

[gatorcane]

i have to disagree. 18z gfs is absolutely horrid for development. huge low in the nw atlantic in the exact place where so many, including JB, said a huge ridge would be dominant.

What GFS run are you looking at? The 18Z I am looking at shows a Cape Verde system that heads west across the Atlantic and becomes a hurricane heading WNW in the SW Atlantic with a ridge over the Eastern United States. It's all long-range and I don't believe this one bit considering how awful the GFS has been this year in it's genesis predictions, but I am not seeing any huge low you are talking about.

[tolakram]

i have to disagree. 18z gfs is absolutely horrid for development. huge low in the nw atlantic in the exact place where so many, including JB, said a huge ridge would be dominant.

You mean Cristobal, the hurricane that just transitioned to extra tropical?

[ninel conde]

i have to disagree. 18z gfs is absolutely horrid for development. huge low in the nw atlantic in the exact place where so many, including JB, said a huge ridge would be dominant.

What GFS run are you looking at? The 18Z I am looking at shows a Cape Verde system that heads west across the Atlantic and becomes a hurricane heading WNW in the SW Atlantic with a ridge over the Eastern United States. It's all long-range and I don't believe this one bit considering how awful the GFS has been this year in it's genesis predictions, but I am not seeing any huge low you are talking about.

i never go out more than 7 days and it shows nothing. lets not forget a few days ago the GFS was showing a rather strong cane in the esat atlantic.

[ninel conde]

i have to disagree. 18z gfs is absolutely horrid for development. huge low in the nw atlantic in the exact place where so many, including JB, said a huge ridge would be dominant.

You mean Cristobal, the hurricane that just transitioned to extra tropical?

no, cristobal will be long gone. its just the same low pressure pattern that has dominated the nw atlantic since 2006

[ninel conde]

i have to disagree. 18z gfs is absolutely horrid for development. huge low in the nw atlantic in the exact place where so many, including JB, said a huge ridge would be dominant.

What GFS run are you looking at? The 18Z I am looking at shows a Cape Verde system that heads west across the Atlantic and becomes a hurricane heading WNW in the SW Atlantic with a ridge over the Eastern United States. It's all long-range and I don't believe this one bit considering how awful the GFS has been this year in it's genesis predictions, but I am not seeing any huge low you are talking about.

this huge low south of greenland

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... hour=168hr

[hurricanehunter69]

GFS has Two possible landfallin storms.....just sayin? http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr= ... =&ps=model

[Yellow Evan]

I'd like to point out that the GFS is the only model that keeps MJO in phase 1/2 for a bit. Maybe convective feedback then?

[ninel conde]

out to 168 on the 0z GFS massive high over greenland and low over nw atlantic. no in close development with that pattern. JB has dropped talking about any hints of any activity.

[ninel conde]

SOI is tanking

SOI values for 30 Aug 2014 Average for last 30 days -10.0
Average for last 90 days -5.3
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -26.0

im quite confident the season will also end quite early.

[CFLHurricane]

SOI is tanking

SOI values for 30 Aug 2014 Average for last 30 days -10.0
Average for last 90 days -5.3
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -26.0

im quite confident the season will also end quite early.

No, because Hurricane Andrew.

Lol

[Ntxw]

Look at this, it's Labor day weekend, one of the most active times climo for tropical cyclones. There is none on Planet Earth. Only little 99L. The suppressed Kelvin wave has done a job even in the hard to quiet down WPAC and it is moving. Got to be mind boggling.



Source: http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/

[tolakram]

Just going on averages, we should have expected a series of below normal seasons. The conflict seems to be we thought we could forcast seasonal activity better than we can. Apparently.

[WPBWeather]

SOI is tanking

SOI values for 30 Aug 2014 Average for last 30 days -10.0
Average for last 90 days -5.3
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -26.0

im quite confident the season will also end quite early.

No more hurricanes ever, ever, ever again!! Well, until next weekend anyway...

[cycloneye]

At least there is more moisture and not like a desert in the MDR.

[chaser1]

out to 168 on the 0z GFS massive high over greenland and low over nw atlantic. no in close development with that pattern. JB has dropped talking about any hints of any activity.

Just so I understand, is it your contention that conditions for Atlantic development (as well as potential U.S. landfall risk) are particularly volatile and therefore unlikely specifically due to present SURFACE low pressure conditions at or near 60N and between 40W - 60W? Question aside, any idea on what Central Florida restaurants JB finds particularly good?

[Ntxw]

It's coming folks. By early this week, whatever is out there will probably get squashed by sinking air outbreak. Satellite will gradually look bleak for a few days.



Currently

[somethingfunny]

It's coming folks. By early this week, whatever is out there will probably get squashed by sinking air outbreak. Satellite will gradually look bleak for a few days.



Currently

This ought to skedaddle out of our basin by October, at which point the question becomes: how powerful are the continental troughs going to be at that point? The main difference between analogs for Lili, Opal, Ida, or Rina are just trough positioning.

[WPBWeather]

It's coming folks. By early this week, whatever is out there will probably get squashed by sinking air outbreak. Satellite will gradually look bleak for a few days.



Currently

I think you are being too pessimistic with your assessment. The moisture is still there.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/atlantic.html