possibility of GOM action later in week? (is INVEST 98L)

ronjon · #41 Postby **ronjon** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 11:41 am

From Dr Jeff Masters Blog this morning:

Keeping an eye on the Gulf of Mexico
In the Gulf of Mexico, a weak cold front is kicking up some heavy thunderstorms in the Louisiana coastal waters. This activity will spread to the Texas coastal waters by Wednesday. With wind shear a moderate 10 - 20 knots, we should monitor this area for development. About 1/3 of the 20 members of the 06Z Monday GFS model ensemble showed some development in the Gulf on Thursday or Friday. (The GFS ensemble is a set of 20 runs of the GFS model done at lower resolution with slightly different initial conditions to generate an uncertainty "plume" of model runs.) The preferred track of the system was to the west towards Texas.

#42 Postby **Alyono** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 12:05 pm

models often do not give much lead time on these kids of systems

TexWx · #43 Postby **TexWx** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 12:10 pm

I wonder how much lead time there was during or right before Hurricane Alicia.

Javlin · #44 Postby **Javlin** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 12:11 pm

Alyono wrote:models often do not give much lead time on these kids of systems

Alyono when I look at the models here http://ruc.noaa.gov/hfip/tcgen/ it shows a green dot coming what appears from the YUC channel maybe?but the moisture envelope is N of the dot(s) if I am reading it right?Am I off base.

I am looking at the UKMET.

Senobia · #45 Postby **Senobia** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 12:14 pm

Does anyone anticipate this becoming an invest or is/has it already?

#46 Postby **South Texas Storms** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 12:34 pm

Senobia wrote:Does anyone anticipate this becoming an invest or is/has it already?

It's not currently an invest, but it could become one soon.

The 12z UKMET shows a 1007 mb low just east of Brownsville in 96 hours.

#47 Postby **Alyono** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 12:36 pm

stunned the NHC gives this ZERO chance of developing

#48 Postby **srainhoutx** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 12:36 pm

MODEL DIAGNOSTIC DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
1224 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

VALID AUG 25/1200 UTC THRU AUG 29/0000 UTC

...SEE NOUS42 KWNO (ADMNFD) FOR THE STATUS OF THE UPPER AIR
INGEST...

12Z NAM/GFS EVALUATION WITH PRELIMINARY MODEL PREFERENCES
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
NAM/GFS INITIALIZATION ERRORS DO NOT SEEM TO DEGRADE THEIR SHORT
RANGE FORECASTS.

WEAK CYCLONE MOVING THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO
~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~~
PREFERENCE: UKMET/ECMWF COMPROMISE
CONFIDENCE: ABOVE AVERAGE

MOST OF THE GUIDANCE TRACKS A WEAK LOW OFF THE TAIL END OF A
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE GULF OF MEXICO TO THE EAST SIDE OF A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL LOW, WITH THE 00Z CANADIAN PRODUCING TWO FOR THE
PRICE OF ONE -- ITS USUAL SPECIAL WITH POSSIBLE
TROPICAL/CONVECTIVE LOWS. SINCE THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS
NOT DISCUSSING THIS SYSTEM, PREFER TO DOWNPLAY ITS PREFERENCE. A
COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z UKMET/00Z ECMWF IS PREFERRED HERE WITH ABOVE
AVERAGE CONFIDENCE CONSIDERING CANADIAN/NAM STRENGTH BIASES ALOFT.

#49 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 12:41 pm

30 frame live visible

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=27&lon=-89&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30

#50 Postby **gatorcane** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 12:50 pm

Alyono wrote:stunned the NHC gives this ZERO chance of developing

I would think they would have at least mentioned it, thunderstorms are holding together fairly well today.

windnrain · #51 Postby **windnrain** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 1:14 pm

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/avn-animated.gif

Convection looks like it's spreading around.

#52 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 1:27 pm

12Z Euro might be hinting at something just south of the TX border.

#53 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 1:52 pm

Here is the Euro vorticity from the tropical EWALL site.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPATL0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html

stormlover2013 · #54 Postby **stormlover2013** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 1:57 pm

shouldn't it say on the 24 hr tues instead of monday?

#55 Postby **NDG** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 2:01 pm

tolakram wrote:Here is the Euro vorticity from the tropical EWALL site.

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPATL0.5_12z/ecmwfloop.html

This is yesterday's run.

stormlover2013 · #56 Postby **stormlover2013** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 2:04 pm

yeah i thought so

#57 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 2:05 pm

Hrmph,

well it should update at that link once the run is done.

baytownwx · #58 Postby **baytownwx** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 2:06 pm

Vorticity has really increased in the gulf today albeit elongated, but nonetheless it's increasing

NOW

3 HOURS AGO:

stormlover2013 · #59 Postby **stormlover2013** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 2:08 pm

http://mp1.met.psu.edu/~fxg1/ECMWFTROPA ... floop.html

euro has something cooking next tues by corpus

#60 Postby **tolakram** » Mon Aug 25, 2014 2:08 pm

Here we go, apparently I had to clear my cache of old images.

possibility of GOM action later in week? (is INVEST 98L)

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