ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Steve]

Agreed blp. You have been on top of possible split energy for a while. I have some comments out there for the record as well, but it was more in trying to understand some of the strange nuances that were showing up in some of the GFS runs. Regardless if it deepens tropical, subtropical or nontropical later on (or not at all), there just seemed to be some energy that was going to be pulled away or left behind. Alyono and I were discussing the other day after I was trying to interpret what GFS was doing which the NHC came out at 11 (either yesterday or Saturday) and stated that it was shearing the mid-level off to the SW which is kind of backwards from what you would typically think (e.g. top shears off NE, lower piece lays back). Something to watch in case some of that energy stays back and say gets juiced by a passing wave or something. It could easily peter out too, but it's definitely something to watch and be discussed. Thanks.

[crimi481]

I agree. You would think the Mid level low would be pulled north.
Based on the loops - looks like a Low center may organize and go S SW? Ya Dink?

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-vis.html

[crimi481]

Actually, looking at the flow to the north, both "lows" may go more west? Am I crazy? (more crazy)

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-vis.html


***I am not a weather Pro

[Frank2]

One of the former NHC hurricane forecasters once told me that southward moving systems in the northern hemisphere do not develop - I would dismiss the south-southwest-west scenarios...

Actually, I'm surprised some are still here thinking of what it might do versus what is apparent at this point - it's a sheared system and is moving slowly northward and eventually northeastward...

Frank

[crimi481]

I see the N. Low being sheared and dry air destroying it.
Also looks like some turning and a high building over the S. part of this mess

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-ir2.html

[tolakram]

Live loop:

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-72&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=20

GFS continues to show strengthening beginning soon as this starts to move north/north east. Convection appears to be slowly building closer to the center now and shear "should" be dropping slowly.

[Riptide]

One of the former NHC hurricane forecasters once told me that southward moving systems in the northern hemisphere do not develop - I would dismiss the south-southwest-west scenarios...

Actually, I'm surprised some are still here thinking of what it might do versus what is apparent at this point - it's a sheared system and is moving slowly northward and eventually northeastward...

Frank

If it's dropping southward, and infact does appear to be weakening. I wonder if a shallower system would be some kind of wildcard in the upcoming forecast.

[gatorcane]

The northerly shear is relentless as the naked swirl is pulling a little more away from the deeper convection getting sheared to the south.

[crimi481]

whatever this is, the area the systems (or Twin Low's) cover - is HUGE

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/ge ... mframes=20

[floridasun78]

here in miami we getting rain band but ts far to east http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

[deltadog03]

Color me not impressed with Cristobal. Nice 994/995mb LLC, just naked from the pounding northerly shear. I just not sure how much stronger this can get. Maybe once its between NC and Bermuda?

[gatorcane]

look at all the dry air closing in:

[Dean4Storms]

Just looks like a horrible sheared TS.......No way another closed surface Low forms right now in this close proximity to Cristobal. If some energy gets left behind that could change in a couple days, but you need that trough to detach and take Cristobal's surface circulation with it!

[Blown Away]

Color me not impressed with Cristobal. Nice 994/995mb LLC, just naked from the pounding northerly shear. I just not sure how much stronger this can get. Maybe once its between NC and Bermuda?

Above 30N is the new MDR? Right?

[deltadog03]

Color me not impressed with Cristobal. Nice 994/995mb LLC, just naked from the pounding northerly shear. I just not sure how much stronger this can get. Maybe once its between NC and Bermuda?

Above 30N is the new MDR? Right?

LMAO!!!

[somethingfunny]

Where's that ideal upper level anticyclone Cristobal was expected to be under at this point?

[Gustywind]

look at all the dry air closing in:

Nice pic Waouw, impressive Gatorcane , dry air surely one of the biggest story of this hurricane season for the moment... sad but here it is.

[crimi481]

The high appears to be over the other swirl - near 22.5. Interesting to watch that area?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-ir2.html

[blp]

Sorry to sound like a broken record, but take a look at this graphics. The split looks to developing now in the charts. You now have 850mb & 500mb Vorticity developing NE and very strong divergance and convergence and you have similar to the south. I don't know which area is going to win out but it seems clear that the split may be happening and in my opinion the current llc that is exposed is going to die off and give way to one or both areas.

850mb


500mb


Divergence


Convergence

[tolakram]

Big picture live loop. Look at the low level flow around that trough axis.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20NHE&lat=30&lon=-65&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=18