ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

....I'm really curious what the models will do with these new developments but they won't get initiated with this info until tomorrow morning's run.

As am I, it will be interesting to see how this could impact the model trend (if it comes to pass).

[ozonepete]

....I'm really curious what the models will do with these new developments but they won't get initiated with this info until tomorrow morning's run.

As am I, it will be interesting to see how this could impact the model trend (if it comes to pass).

Yup. There will have to be some adjustments. It looks like it may even be getting pushed a little southeastward by the base of the trough. The good news is that the NHC has to explain, or try to explain, what the heck is going on in their 11PM discussion. I will be glued to the screen to see what they think happened and what's going to happen.

[floridasun78]

how will new center affect Models?

[HURAKAN]

models were showing the system basically stationary by now, thus I don't see any new developments here that will change the ultime outcome

[BigA]

Hard to see the extent of any possible center reformation without visible imagery (though recon, of course, would give the best info). That said, it is reasonably common for storms in this stage to reform their LLC under the MLC/greater convection. So it is definitely something to be mindful of

In terms of possible forecast track changes due to a center 50-100 miles to the south, I would imagine that it would shift forecasts a bit to the left due to a weaker influence from the trough. That said, I don't think it would be a game-changer; a track out to sea would still be by far the most likely outcome.*

*I am not a forecaster, so this is only my best insight on the matter. If a center does reform, the models will give a good indication of any effect of the reformation on track.

[WPBWeather]

Last night some models bent east then southeast. Now these same are showing west. What's up with that??

[deltadog03]

It does look like the old LLC has died. That "newer" area south of there looks interesting. That even appears to be about stationary or even drifting south.

[ozonepete]

how will new center affect Models?

They'll have to change how close it gets to the southeast coast and whether the mid-week trough coming in can steer it away. I'm pretty surprised that it seems to be drifting south or southeastward a little, although the reformation of the center could account for that "apparent" motion. Although someone here said some of the models indicated that last night.

[baytownwx]

So the GFS had a pretty good handle on it as far as some small low level center and/or energy getting pulled off to the northeast while the bulk of the circulation (the MLC) is getting left behind. The Euro actually saw the same thing but without considering a temporary decoupling. The overall take-away should be a new center forming further south under the MLC, since this hardly looks like it's going to dissipate, despite all of the "hot mess" assessments going on. Just looks like it's reforming further southward. I'm really curious what the models will do with these new developments but they won't get initiated with this info until tomorrow morning's run.

Oh, by no means do I think it's going to dissipate, pressures are to low and the bulk of convection left behind sitting in practically bath water is screaming for an LLC to develop where the bulk of convection is. I'm also curious as to what may happen. My point was that what looked like a storm with a great structure starting to take place just earlier today looks like a hot mess right now

[NDG]

As I said earlier, Cristobal will have to gain some latitude eventually for it to get picked up by the next trough, so if by tomorrow it does not start picking up some speed and gain more latitude it could be left behind meandering around like the latest BAMM model shows.

[northjaxpro]

Ozonepete, I am just a bit curious on what the models are showing with the next trough coming into the picture by mid-week. I haven't checked the model guidance today , but I was assuming like most everyone that the next downstream trough would be deep enough to catch Cristobal if the cyclone was approximately near 30 degrees latitude.

I am wondering just how deep the next trough will be.

[Frank2]

After reading all of the pro-met posts, it seems that the comment that the unexpected changes won't change the NHC track thinking seems to make the most sense (or in a Star Trek sense is the most logical : )

Oh, per the WV comments (one my own) I was told long ago that its a good tool because it shows the fluid dynamics of the atmosphere that the VIS or IR cannot see...

Frank

[ozonepete]

After reading all of the pro-met posts, it seems that the comment that the unexpected changes won't change the NHC track thinking seems to make the most sense (or in a Star Trek sense is the most logical : )

Oh, per the WV comments (one my own) I was told long ago that its a good tool because it shows the fluid dynamics of the atmosphere that the VIS or IR cannot see...

Frank

Lol, Frank. I am one of the pro-mets that said I don't expect any significant changes, just changes, and that I still don't expect it to reach the east coast at this time, but just get closer than previously thought. So I agree with Sandy.

The WV sat is a great tool. And yes I said it's great for watching atmospheric motion, i.e. steering currents, which yes, the IR, visible and RGB don't show well. I just would never use it for determining what the low to mid level structure is doing and thus what the intensity trends are up to.

[ozonepete]

So the GFS had a pretty good handle on it as far as some small low level center and/or energy getting pulled off to the northeast while the bulk of the circulation (the MLC) is getting left behind. The Euro actually saw the same thing but without considering a temporary decoupling. The overall take-away should be a new center forming further south under the MLC, since this hardly looks like it's going to dissipate, despite all of the "hot mess" assessments going on. Just looks like it's reforming further southward. I'm really curious what the models will do with these new developments but they won't get initiated with this info until tomorrow morning's run.

Oh, by no means do I think it's going to dissipate, pressures are to low and the bulk of convection left behind sitting in practically bath water is screaming for an LLC to develop where the bulk of convection is. I'm also curious as to what may happen. My point was that what looked like a storm with a great structure starting to take place just earlier today looks like a hot mess right now

Ha ha we are good.

[jlauderdal]

Last night some models bent east then southeast. Now these same are showing west. What's up with that??

modeling has been inonsistent at best and continues

[blp]

The weakness is closing. Nowhere to go for now. May slide a little further south. Interesting to see how this plays out.

[gatorcane]

Last night some models bent east then southeast. Now these same are showing west. What's up with that??

modeling has been inonsistent at best and continues

The BAMD thinks it goes west now and is not with the rest of the guidance, on the past two cycles.

[artist]

Last night some models bent east then southeast. Now these same are showing west. What's up with that??

modeling has been inonsistent at best and continues

The BAMD thinks it goes west now and is not with the rest of the guidance, on the past two cycles.

remember the d stands for whether it is a deep storm or not, as the s is for a shallow storm, which the BAMS is fairly consistent with where the other models put him.

[ozonepete]

It's definitely dropping southward. I'm just getting more and more curious what the 11PM discussion will say. Though I don't think they can add much right now because they don't have any recent model output that takes the current southward drift into account. They'll probably stick to the same track with a little slower speed and just wait for tomorrows 12Z model runs. Not much else anyone can say right now.

[blp]

I just don't know how anyone can be real confident with this forecast. The models can just as easy flip back as they have done the last few days. I think the NHC has their hands full with this one.