ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Just as I thought it looks like Cristobal went back to a more NW heading, slowing down too.

230830 2430N 07306W 9626 00321 9983 +244 +240 313003 006 /// /// 03
$$

[ozonepete]

Will this change the projected path considering it is practically stationary and the LLC is relocating?

I don't think so in this case because the NHC expected it to slow down anyway and they have been expecting a center relocation/consolidation so I assume their track took those factors into consideration. Although it wouldn't surprise me if this got a little further west than forecast. It's really clear that the big trough has missed it now.

[NDG]

Will this change the projected path considering it is practically stationary and the LLC is relocating?

I don't think so in this case because the NHC expected it to slow down anyway and they have been expecting a center relocation/consolidation so I assume their track took those factors into consideration. Although it wouldn't surprise me if this got a little further west than forecast. It's really clear that the big trough has missed it now.

I was looking into this, models do slow Cristobal to a crawl like it is doing right now, then it is supposed to start heading NNE and pick up speed by tomorrow afternoon, then get picked up by the next forecasted trough in the NE US, but Cristobal will have to gain some latitude over the next couple of days for it to get picked up by the next trough which will not be as deep as the current one. But when you have the two best models showing that Cristobal will continue to gain latitude is hard to go against them.

[tropicwatch]

Based on center fixes the past couple of hours I think she might have gone stationary.

Looks like that could be. Probably because the LLC is relocating under that area of strong convection. Btw, Cristobal is a male name.

Sometimes you just never know

[gatorcane]

Finally, Cristobal looks to be really ramping up, albeit, it seems to be getting hit with some northwesterly shear at the moment, but check out the deep convection just south of the center:

[Frank2]

True, but when you look at the WV here it doesn't look like much except for that curved band to the south:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

the WV is always best because it shows what's really there, not just cold cloud debris from cirrus, etc. that make the colorized version so, uh, colorful : )

[ozonepete]

True, but when you look at the WV here it doesn't look like much except for that curved band to the south:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

the WV is always best because it shows what's really there, not just cold cloud debris from cirrus, etc. that make the colorized version so, uh, colorful : )

No, not really. Water vapor is good for general motion and mid to upper level features, but nothing beats the RGB. I use it almost exclusively for intensity and circulation patterns. If I only had two options, I would always take the RGB over the visible, and if I only had water vapor I'd be depressed.

[ozonepete]

Watching the latest satellite image loops, I would say that this has really slowed down or stalled. I would have to cautiously add that if this does indeed slow down more than expected it would obviously influence the track.

[wzrgirl1]

Watching the latest satellite image loops, I would say that this has really slowed down or stalled. I would have to cautiously add that if this does indeed slow down more than expected it would obviously influence the track.

Which way would it influence it and why?

[gatorcane]

Watching the latest satellite image loops, I would say that this has really slowed down or stalled. I would have to cautiously add that if this does indeed slow down more than expected it would obviously influence the track.

I am not seeing any movement, shortwave IR loop below:

[wxman57]

To me, it looks like Cristobal is on life-support. No well-defined center and no low-level convergence toward a center. Regardless, it does not appear to be any threat to the East U.S. Coast.

[tolakram]

Last visible, dark at the end, but it appeared to go stationary or the LLC was being tugged or reforming under the convection to the south.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-73&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1200&height=720&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30

[ozonepete]

To me, it looks like Cristobal is on life-support. No well-defined center and no low-level convergence toward a center. Regardless, it does not appear to be any threat to the East U.S. Coast.

So call Bones.

[ozonepete]

Watching the latest satellite image loops, I would say that this has really slowed down or stalled. I would have to cautiously add that if this does indeed slow down more than expected it would obviously influence the track.

Which way would it influence it and why?

Well if it stays stationary longer than expected it might not get steered out to sea by the next mid-latitude trough this week. Then it would be hard to figure what it would do. Could come a little closer to land, although I'm still with wxman57 as far as it being very unlikely to reach the U.S. coast. But once again, we need to see how long it stops moving.

[tolakram]

Big picture IR.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-70&info=ir&zoom=4&width=1200&height=720&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir5.pal&numframes=20

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

AL, 04, 2014082500, , BEST, 0, 246N, 731W, 40, 998, TS

[baytownwx]

yep, definitely looks like what was the LLC is being absorbed by the trough while what could be the MLC or the meat of the convection will be left behind. Who knows what will happen from here, either way it looks like a hot mess tonight

[northjaxpro]

0Z Best Track indicating 998 mb now. Also, I agree with the system basically nearly stationary at this time.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

Appearing almost subtropical in terms of structure tonight imo.

[ozonepete]

So the GFS had a pretty good handle on it as far as some small low level center and/or energy getting pulled off to the northeast while the bulk of the circulation (the MLC) is getting left behind. The Euro actually saw the same thing but without considering a temporary decoupling. The overall take-away should be a new center forming further south under the MLC, since this hardly looks like it's going to dissipate, despite all of the "hot mess" assessments going on. Just looks like it's reforming further southward. I'm really curious what the models will do with these new developments but they won't get initiated with this info until tomorrow morning's run.