ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SeGaBob]

So So Fl is totally safe from this one? Is there nothing to change Cristobal to the west?

Ask again in a few days. One thing certain about these systems is that nothing is certain.

This one is certain IMO...

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[canes04]

Agree Tailgater.

Something is not right here.

Pro mets care to chime in on why this appears to be decoupling. Or was it never stacked from the beginning?
This has been a strange one to track.

[Weatherboy1]

Believe one of the recent NHC discussions mentioned that the GFS model was forecasting that a piece of the storm would get sheared off and dragged NE, leaving another piece behind. Maybe that's what will/is happening?

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track.

AL, 04, 2014082418, , BEST, 0, 241N, 730W, 40, 1001, TS

[Airboy]

Looking at the recon I wonder if a new center is trying to form more West of the last position, flying north to south and had a wind shift wind with winds going from NE to NW with a pressure drop.

[SeGaBob]

I don't think center relocations matter at this point... it's still going to go NE the same.



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

I don't see any center reformation, that might have been an eddy.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=25&lon=-73&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1200&height=720&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30

It is interesting how the GFS kept this weak due to poor structure while the Euro strengthens it pretty quickly. Either way, weak, sheared, or stronger, all models keep it well off the coast.

[tolakram]

Take a look at the 12Z GFS 700MB RH loop.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.c ... =Animation

If this is correct then Cristobal is going to struggle with dry air.

[floridasun78]

we have new invest guys 97l to let all know almost same area as 96l form

[HurriGuy]

Recon just showed Cristobal moved basically west

[SeGaBob]

To me this system appears stationary right now...could be a illusion though.

[HURAKAN]

clearly moving north to north-nowest .. poorly organized too

[Hammy]

clearly moving north to north-nowest .. poorly organized too

Could still be trying to consolidate given that there was a much smaller calm area in the center, though it appears there are still a few eddies circling around on the west.

[Airboy]

To me this system appears stationary right now...could be a illusion though.

Not moving much that for sure.

[meriland23]

This doesn't look to be moving either direction at all. Looks confused.

[crimi481]

Wonder if this may happen?

PostPosted: Sat Aug 23, 2014 10:35 pm
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/flash-bd.html

I am no pro, but it appears the entire N. half of storm will shed itself off to the north.
Leaving the LOW center to move more W. WNW.

[gatorcane]

I see some movement to the NW initially then it seems to slow to a crawl with little movement:

[Frank2]

Perhaps the pro mets will take a look at this loop and give an opinion:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

it seems there is a center-like feature at 23.2N 72.0W moving about 010 - system appears very disorganized on this loop...

[Recurve]

Untrained eye -- have a very hard time seeing LL center. All the components are there, nice outflow, good inflow visible to W, storm tops bubbling near center. But where it is exactly and if/where it's moving could only be known from recon fixes I'd say.

I can believe the strengthening forecast more than the track at this point, but that is an awfully vigorous digging front. And of course don't make decisions based on anything I saw, I am an amateur and you should only listen to the NHC and your own gut.
I'm less concerned in S Central FL right now though.

Hope for some good information from the Bahamas, you all stay safe.

[ozonepete]

Perhaps the pro mets will take a look at this loop and give an opinion:

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... imated.gif

it seems there is a center-like feature at 23.2N 72.0W moving about 010...

You're very close to what I see, Frank. I got 23.4N 72.5W and moving north very slowly but definitely not stalled. Either way the LLC and MLC seem to be consolidating finally. A lot of convection blowing up right over the center now with hot towers. This reminds me of Bertha which behaved similarly in this area. It got elongated and finally the shear dropped and some energy blew off to the north and the remaining circulation became more symmetrical. That looks to be happening here with Cristobal as well. I expect that northeastern area of convection well north of the center will shoot off northeast with the trough and then this can get a more symmetric, circular pattern provided the shear lessens or at least doesn't get any worse.