EPAC: MARIE - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

You can see the eye in the infrared on the first page..

The eye is not fully visible on IR; however, there is a warm spot visible.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

[supercane4867]

Latest partial microwave pass suggests eyewall maybe fully closed and perhaps developing a pinhole

[Ntxw]

Finally! She's got intense eye-wall for sure. When that clears out, probably will have some significant jumps in intensity.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

I wouldn't be surprised to see this become a Category 4 hurricane overnight--as aforementioned, Marie has developed the 'dreaded pinhole eye'.

[Yellow Evan]

Now it's bombing out. Here we go.

[weathernerdguy]

Good night.

[cycloneye]

Special Advisory coming?

[Ntxw]

Now it's bombing out. Here we go.

Yep, looks like ADT is about to do a significant jump/pinhole eye. Here comes the next (6th) Major.

[Yellow Evan]

Now it's bombing out. Here we go.

Yep, looks like ADT is about to do a significant jump/pinhole eye. Here comes the next (6th) Major.

This is reminded me of Rick 09 before it reached 155 knts, when it jumped from 90 to 125 knts in 9 hours. Expect something similar.

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[CrazyC83]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 AUG 2014 Time : 024500 UTC
Lat : 15:32:02 N Lon : 108:54:36 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 979.5mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.5 4.5 6.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -26.8C Cloud Region Temp : -76.1C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW ON
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 95km
- Environmental MSLP : 1011mb

Satellite Name : GOES13
Satellite Viewing Angle : 42.8 degrees

[Yellow Evan]

Special Advisory coming?

They'll wait for ADT to at major status probs.

[CrazyC83]

I have this feeling we will wake up to a Cat 4 or 5...this looks to be starting to bomb out.

[Yellow Evan]

Don't think I've ever seen such a difference in raw and final ADT values. (4.5 and 6.9)

[Yellow Evan]

I'm expecting NHC will likely start nowcasting soon.

[CrazyC83]

Don't think I've ever seen such a difference in raw and final ADT values. (4.5 and 6.9)

In the WPAC it is not uncommon, but not common in the EPAC or Atlantic. Usually occurs when a storm is rapidly intensifying. I'd have it at 95 kt right now, but would wait until 0600Z for a Special Advisory.

[Ntxw]

No doubts about the eye now

[supercane4867]

WTH

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 979.5mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.5 4.5 6.9

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :<10 km

Center Temp : -26.8C Cloud Region Temp : -76.1C

Scene Type : PINHOLE EYE

[tolakram]

live ir: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=13&lon=-110&info=ir&zoom=1&width=1000&height=1000&type=Animation&quality=95&palette=ir4.pal&numframes=10

big picture: http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-W%20PACUS&lat=13&lon=-110&info=ir&zoom=4&width=1000&height=1000&type=Animation&quality=95&palette=ir4.pal&numframes=10

[Yellow Evan]

I'd agree with keeping it at 95 knts for now, given a blend of all 3 ADT values.