EPAC: MARIE - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

:uarrow: Which leads me to another thing. What's up with all the large systems as of late?

That's a good question I'd like to know as well. Is it because later in the season there is less dry air overall? Could that be it? Is there a seasonal climo trend on storm size? Or is it just random.

I think it's due to MJO favoring EPAC most of the season. I've noticed that TC's are larger when MJO has direct influence.

[Cyclenall]

As of 23:00 UTC the eye is obscured or missing. The 23:15 UTC frame shows this again. The next frame will be crucial in showing whether this is just a blip before the eye pops out as the rotating CDO is pretty rapid right now, or another failed attempt. That 89H scan was shocking showing how fast the inner core or lack of one changed in such a short period, that was the time I said it first failed and almost looked bad for a hour. RI might be starting again since 22:00 UTC.

[Yellow Evan]

2330z NOAA floater shows a mostly clouded eye. Really starting to doubt RI/EI.

[Yellow Evan]

Good call NHC.

EP, 13, 2014082400, , BEST, 0, 155N, 1081W, 85, 975, HU, 34, NEQ, 110, 90, 80, 100, 1009, 280, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARIE, D,
EP, 13, 2014082400, , BEST, 0, 155N, 1081W, 85, 975, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 40, 30, 50, 1009, 280, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARIE, D,
EP, 13, 2014082400, , BEST, 0, 155N, 1081W, 85, 975, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 20, 10, 25, 1009, 280, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARIE, D,

[Kingarabian]

Guys just give it time. Structure looks perfect, abundant convection, high SST's, I see zero shear affecting, and heat content is up there.

[hectopascal]

Imo it peaked a c4


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[supercane4867]

Revised up to 90kt

EP, 13, 2014082400, , BEST, 0, 155N, 1081W, 90, 971, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 20, 10, 25, 1009, 280, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARIE, D,

[cycloneye]

Good sign that they are seeing RI.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The large size of Marie is likely contributing to a slower pace of intensification than initially forecast. By no means does that mean this won't become an exceptionally strong hurricane, however.

[cycloneye]

The large size of Marie is likely contributing to a slower pace of intensification than initially forecast. By no means does that mean this won't become an exceptionally strong hurricane, however.

It still has time to be a very strong cane unless some factor like dry air or unexpected shear interfers.

[hectopascal]

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The large size of Marie is likely contributing to a slower pace of intensification than initially forecast. By no means does that mean this won't become an exceptionally strong hurricane, however.

It still has time to be a very strong cane unless some factor like dry air or unexpected shear interfers.

Some easterly shear is already evident.

This probably isn't going to be a Category 5 hurricane (not that it was ever explicitly forecast to be)

[Yellow Evan]

Imo it peaked a c4


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

The eye is clear enough for a Cat 3, yet alone a Cat 4.

[Yellow Evan]

I agree there's a little easterly shear. Shouldn't stop this from becoming a Cat 3-4 IMO.

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ33 KNHC 240244
TCPEP3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE MARIE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014

...MARIE GAINING STRENGTH...
...LARGE SWELLS AND HAZARDOUS SURF CONDITIONS AFFECTING THE
COAST OF MEXICO...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.7N 108.7W
ABOUT 370 MI...595 KM SW OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
ABOUT 505 MI...810 KM S OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 295 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...971 MB...28.68 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE MARIE WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 15.7 NORTH...LONGITUDE 108.7 WEST. MARIE IS MOVING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...22 KM/H. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR SO WITH SOME DECREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY LATE
MONDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 105 MPH...165
KM/H...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND MARIE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A MAJOR
HURRICANE BY MONDAY.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 125
MILES...205 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 971 MB...28.68 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
SURF...SWELLS GENERATED BY MARIE ARE AFFECTING THE SOUTHWESTERN
COAST OF MEXICO AND WILL SPREAD NORTHWESTWARD TO AFFECT THE SOUTHERN
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA AND SOUTHERN GULF OF CALIFORNIA BY SUNDAY.
SWELLS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN COAST OF MEXICO ARE EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY SUBSIDE BY MONDAY. THESE SWELLS ARE LIKELY TO CAUSE
EXTREMELY DANGEROUS LIFE-THREATENING SURF AND RIP CURRENT
CONDITIONS. FOR MORE INFORMATION...PLEASE CONSULT PRODUCTS FROM YOUR
LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN

[weathernerdguy]

We have a eye for once.

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
800 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014

Marie's cloud pattern has become better organized since the last
advisory. Pulsating convection within the cyclone's large central
dense overcast has become more symmetric, and late-day visible
satellite imagery showed an intermittent proto-eye. Several
well-defined bands also wrap well around the circulation of Marie.
A 2106 UTC GMI pass revealed a significant increase in the
organization of hurricane's inner core since this morning, with a
closed low-level ring of convection present then. An AMSU intensity
estimate of 86 kt preceded a T5.0/90 kt Dvorak intensity estimate
from TAFB at 0000 UTC. The initial intensity is raised to 90 kt, the
upper end of these estimates, based on some further increase in
organization of the cyclone's satellite presentation since that
time.

Marie has been traveling on a west-northwestward course or 295/12,
with the current motion to the right of that 24 hours ago. Marie
should be steered around the southwestern periphery of an expansive
mid-level ridge stretching from the eastern United States into the
eastern Pacific during the next 24 hours or so. After that, the
hurricane will reach the western edge of this ridge and temporary
slow down before the direction of motion becomes northwesterly
through the remainder of the forecast period. The track guidance
remains in very good agreement this cycle, and the forecast track
was shifted only slightly to the right of the previous one by virtue
of Marie's nearly northwesterly initial motion.

While large-scale conditions generally remain quite conducive
for additional intensification, there is some disagreement with
regard to how much northeasterly vertical shear is currently
affecting Marie. The UW-CIMSS analyses indicate no more than 5-10 kt
of northeasterly shear while SHIPS model output has consistently
indicated around 15 kt. Regardless, the inner core structure
of the hurricane and the favorable environmental conditions should
allow for Marie's strengthening to major hurricane status, unless
its intensification is interrupted by an eyewall replacement.
Interestingly, the bulk of the intensity guidance shows little
additional intensification except the SHIPS output, possibly in
response to the less-than-optimal shear. Even though the shear is
forecast to diminish after 72 hours, sea surface temperatures along
Marie's path should rapidly decrease and cause a rapid spin-down of
the cyclone. The NHC intensity forecast remains above all of the
intensity guidance through day 3 except the SHIPS model output but
approaches the multi-model consensus IVCN after that time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/0300Z 15.7N 108.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 24/1200Z 16.2N 110.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 25/0000Z 16.8N 112.3W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 25/1200Z 17.7N 113.9W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 26/0000Z 18.8N 115.6W 115 KT 135 MPH
72H 27/0000Z 21.4N 119.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
96H 28/0000Z 24.0N 124.5W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 29/0000Z 26.7N 129.0W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
Forecaster Kimberlain

[Yellow Evan]

Yea, it has a halfway decent eye now.

[hectopascal]

Imo it peaked a c4


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

The eye is clear enough for a Cat 3, yet alone a Cat 4.

Should have read it will peak at c4 *chillout*

[weathernerdguy]

You can see the eye in the infrared on the first page..