ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

#1601 Postby **psyclone** » Sat Aug 23, 2014 4:48 pm

Looks farther east so far.

#1602 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Sat Aug 23, 2014 4:48 pm

The GFS is portraying a titled circulation in 48 hours with the 850 mb vort center much farther north of the 500 mb vort center. Not sure if convective feedback or what because upper-level winds look weak.

#1603 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat Aug 23, 2014 4:50 pm

toad strangler wrote:
Hurricane Andrew wrote:Appears to be drifting north...?

Si, I'm not looking at any more models until the real LLC is plugged into initialization @ 0z.

Have fun all!

Alyono will cringe when he/she sees this.

Dynamic models are capable of creating LLC's.

#1604 Postby **tolakram** » Sat Aug 23, 2014 4:50 pm

72 h

compared to 12Z, 78 h, is further east.

#1605 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Sat Aug 23, 2014 4:51 pm

What a mess at 500 mb in 66 hours. Vort max just offshore Cuba!! Hard to find a coherent TC structure either. Just looks like an elongated mess.

alch97 · #1606 Postby **alch97** » Sat Aug 23, 2014 4:53 pm

So I guess Miami is out of the picture?

#1607 Postby **tolakram** » Sat Aug 23, 2014 4:54 pm

stormlover2013 · #1608 Postby **stormlover2013** » Sat Aug 23, 2014 4:54 pm

No Miami isn't

#1609 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Sat Aug 23, 2014 4:55 pm

What kind of TC is this? At 72 hours:

#1610 Postby **Blown Away** » Sat Aug 23, 2014 4:56 pm

alch97 wrote:So I guess Miami is out of the picture?

As of now Miami not in the NHC error cone and the big models, GFS/Euro not moving TD4 to SFL... Gotta keep tuned in...

#1611 Postby **Kingarabian** » Sat Aug 23, 2014 4:56 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:What kind of TC is this? At 72 hours:

If Bertha can be classified as a hurricane, then so can this! :lol:

stormlover2013 · #1612 Postby **stormlover2013** » Sat Aug 23, 2014 4:56 pm

I agree south Sade lol!!

#1613 Postby **tolakram** » Sat Aug 23, 2014 4:57 pm

floridasun78 · #1614 Postby **floridasun78** » Sat Aug 23, 2014 4:57 pm

so nhc going with gfs?

#1615 Postby **tolakram** » Sat Aug 23, 2014 4:58 pm

#1616 Postby **Blown Away** » Sat Aug 23, 2014 4:58 pm

18z looks like 12z, just a bit farther east and weak...

#1617 Postby **chaser1** » Sat Aug 23, 2014 5:01 pm

So here is a question for anyone, especially those familiar with NHC protocol.

It is common knowledge that the GFS & the Euro models are the "go to" tools that NHC has the greatest confidence in. However, the UK has for years been fairly respected and now recently upgraded. The UK track happens to be one of the more western outliers and yet there was no reference to it (or why that model was being discounted). On the other hand, I might read the cyclone discussion (for any number of past storms), and that particular forecaster will go to great lengths to expound how the FSU Supermodel was closely followed to determine that particular forecast. In other cases, greater weight might be given to the UK, and again in others perhaps the BAM Deep Layer or even the Canadian model.

I am just curious why in this particular case does it appear that the BAM'S & UK models seem to be discarded?

#1618 Postby **SouthDadeFish** » Sat Aug 23, 2014 5:01 pm

I'm sorry but I'm calling BS on this GFS run. Not saying it won't recurve but I highly doubt the 500 and 850 mb vort maxes will be that far displaced in 3 days. It looks like there is some sort of convective feedback/ positive vorticity advection mess going on between the TC and the trough. Who knows, maybe it will happen, but I doubt it.

Edit: If there are any other mets out there who know more on this situation please let me know. Do y'all buy this forecast?

Hoops · #1619 Postby **Hoops** » Sat Aug 23, 2014 5:02 pm

wxman57 wrote:
Hoops wrote:Is there a website that translates the 4-letter spaghetti model acronyms into Euro, etc?

Try the NHC website: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutmodels.shtml

Bookmarked - thanks!

#1620 Postby **tolakram** » Sat Aug 23, 2014 5:02 pm

ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

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