ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

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SouthDadeFish
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Re: Re:

#1581 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sat Aug 23, 2014 3:48 pm

TheStormExpert wrote:
gatorcane wrote:So we have the GFS and ECMWF ensembles starting to zero in on Florida, getting even more interesting!

Never really understood these ensembles, what is their purpose and meaning?


The ensembles are a very useful tool. Each "member" is initialized with slightly different conditions, in effect to mimic possible error or uncertainties in our observations. Thus, in theory, the total ensemble spread represents the range of possible outcomes with slightly different initial conditions. Thus, rather than using one deterministic run with one set of initial conditions that can be prone to error, the ensembles give us a better feel of all the possible outcomes.

Note: I am not expert in modeling, but this is what I have gathered over the years.
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#1582 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Sat Aug 23, 2014 4:11 pm

EURO ensembles should give Floridians cause for concern. ECMENS has been very good in the winter, from what I can remember over the years.
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#1583 Postby stauglocal » Sat Aug 23, 2014 4:12 pm

Levi at Tropical Tidbits just put up a new video on possible direction of 96L aka TD4
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Models

#1584 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 23, 2014 4:24 pm

18Z GFS Initialized

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#1585 Postby AdamFirst » Sat Aug 23, 2014 4:25 pm

Are the new model suites going off the CoC?
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Models

#1586 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 23, 2014 4:26 pm

6h

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Re:

#1587 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 23, 2014 4:27 pm

AdamFirst wrote:Are the new model suites going off the CoC?


No, not until the next run or the one after that, not sure.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Models

#1588 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 23, 2014 4:28 pm

15h

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Re: ATL: FOUR - Models

#1589 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 23, 2014 4:31 pm

24h

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Re: Re:

#1590 Postby TheStormExpert » Sat Aug 23, 2014 4:34 pm

tolakram wrote:
AdamFirst wrote:Are the new model suites going off the CoC?


No, not until the next run or the one after that, not sure.

Levi said the 00z will start initializing off the new COC, those runs could be interesting.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Models

#1591 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 23, 2014 4:35 pm

36h

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#1592 Postby Kingarabian » Sat Aug 23, 2014 4:37 pm

A little deeper so far.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Models

#1593 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 23, 2014 4:38 pm

42h

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#1594 Postby Hurricane Andrew » Sat Aug 23, 2014 4:39 pm

Appears to be drifting north...?
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Models

#1595 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 23, 2014 4:40 pm

48h

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Re:

#1596 Postby toad strangler » Sat Aug 23, 2014 4:41 pm

Hurricane Andrew wrote:Appears to be drifting north...?



Si, I'm not looking at any more models until the real LLC is plugged into initialization @ 0z.

Have fun all!
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Models

#1597 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 23, 2014 4:42 pm

54h, slowly moving north

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#1598 Postby SouthDadeFish » Sat Aug 23, 2014 4:43 pm

I don't see what was so off about the 18Z initialization? It looks pretty accurate to me.
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Re: ATL: FOUR - Models

#1599 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 23, 2014 4:45 pm

63h

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Re:

#1600 Postby Blown Away » Sat Aug 23, 2014 4:45 pm

SouthDadeFish wrote:I don't see what was so off about the 18Z initialization? It looks pretty accurate to me.


Yeah, I thought it was spot on... Looks like a recurve earlier this run????
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