EPAC: MARIE - Post-Tropical

[weathernerdguy]

Please delete

[hurricanes1234]

Up to 80 knots but peak has been lowered.

000
WTPZ43 KNHC 232046
TCDEP3

HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014

Marie's rapid intensification has slowed some this afternoon.
Symmetric, cold cloud tops are persisting in association with the
hurricane and a ragged eye is just now starting to make an
appearance in the visible imagery. Dvorak CI numbers from ADT,
SAB, and TAFB have not changed over the last six hours, but with an
eye evident the intensity is increased slightly to 80 kt. Continued
intensification is expected, but how much is fairly uncertain. The
SSTs, moisture, and convective instability are likely to continue
being very conducive for the next three days. However, the GFS-based
vertical shear within the SHIPS model suggests about 15 kt of
deep-layer shear now and for the next three days. The forecast
intensity is close to the SHIPS statistical model through three
days, which is higher than any of the other guidance. It is of note
that the GFDL dynamical model barely maintains Marie as a hurricane
for the next three days, though this is considered an unlikely
scenario at this time. By days four and five, Marie should be
passing over cold waters and moving into a stable atmosphere. The
forecast intensity at the long-lead times is close to the IVCN
consensus. This official intensity prediction is slightly below that
provided in the previous advisory from 48 hours onward.

TRMM and SSMIS microwave imagery provided evidence of the developing
eye feature and allowed for a more accurate determination of the
initial position and motion. The current motion is west-northwest at
10 kt, about the same as previously. Marie is primarily being
steered by a deep-layer ridge to its northeast, which should
continue being the main steering factor for the entire forecast
period. The track guidance remains in very close agreement through
day 5 and suggests more confidence than usual in the forecast
track. The official track prediction at days four and five is
shifted slightly westward compared to the previous advisory and is
based upon the multi-model TVCN consensus technique.

It is of note that small-sized Hurricane Karina is now expected by
most models to be absorbed into the circulation of Marie in about
four days. While this process will lead to the dissipation of
Karina, it should have little effect on the larger-sized Marie.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 15.1N 107.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 15.6N 109.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 16.1N 111.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 16.8N 113.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 17.8N 114.8W 115 KT 135 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 20.6N 118.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 23.0N 123.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 25.5N 128.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Landsea

[cycloneye]

HURRICANE MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
200 PM PDT SAT AUG 23 2014

Marie's rapid intensification has slowed some this afternoon.
Symmetric, cold cloud tops are persisting in association with the
hurricane and a ragged eye is just now starting to make an
appearance in the visible imagery. Dvorak CI numbers from ADT,
SAB, and TAFB have not changed over the last six hours, but with an
eye evident the intensity is increased slightly to 80 kt. Continued
intensification is expected, but how much is fairly uncertain. The
SSTs, moisture, and convective instability are likely to continue
being very conducive for the next three days. However, the GFS-based
vertical shear within the SHIPS model suggests about 15 kt of
deep-layer shear now and for the next three days. The forecast
intensity is close to the SHIPS statistical model through three
days, which is higher than any of the other guidance. It is of note
that the GFDL dynamical model barely maintains Marie as a hurricane
for the next three days, though this is considered an unlikely
scenario at this time. By days four and five, Marie should be
passing over cold waters and moving into a stable atmosphere. The
forecast intensity at the long-lead times is close to the IVCN
consensus. This official intensity prediction is slightly below that
provided in the previous advisory from 48 hours onward.

TRMM and SSMIS microwave imagery provided evidence of the developing
eye feature and allowed for a more accurate determination of the
initial position and motion. The current motion is west-northwest at
10 kt, about the same as previously. Marie is primarily being
steered by a deep-layer ridge to its northeast, which should
continue being the main steering factor for the entire forecast
period. The track guidance remains in very close agreement through
day 5 and suggests more confidence than usual in the forecast
track. The official track prediction at days four and five is
shifted slightly westward compared to the previous advisory and is
based upon the multi-model TVCN consensus technique.

It is of note that small-sized Hurricane Karina is now expected by
most models to be absorbed into the circulation of Marie in about
four days. While this process will lead to the dissipation of
Karina, it should have little effect on the larger-sized Marie.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 15.1N 107.6W 80 KT 90 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 15.6N 109.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 16.1N 111.4W 100 KT 115 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 16.8N 113.1W 110 KT 125 MPH
48H 25/1800Z 17.8N 114.8W 115 KT 135 MPH
72H 26/1800Z 20.6N 118.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 27/1800Z 23.0N 123.0W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 28/1800Z 25.5N 128.0W 45 KT 50 MPH

$$
Forecaster Landsea

[WeatherGuesser]

Dangit! Terra Modis went right between Marie and Lowell!

http://lance-modis.eosdis.nasa.gov/cgi- ... 00.2km.jpg


I was hoping for a good shot. Maybe Aqua Modis will catch it later today.

[hurricanes1234]

I wonder if this will make it to Category 4. It is having problems with an eye and one model is now keeping it weak.

[Yellow Evan]

I wonder if this will make it to Category 4. It is having problems with an eye and one model is keeping it weak.

The GFDL isn't reliable. It's eye is fine now. Relax.

[weathernerdguy]

I meant by the eye is a illusion is by long wave infrared Dvorak enhancement and NHC enhancement show nothing of a eye.

[Yellow Evan]

I meant by the eye is a illusion is by long wave infrared Dvorak enhancement and NHC enhancement show nothing of a eye.

Which indicates it hasn't cleared out fully yet. That's all.

[Kingarabian]

I meant by the eye is a illusion is by long wave infrared Dvorak enhancement and NHC enhancement show nothing of a eye.

But visible showed an eye.

[weathernerdguy]

I meant by the eye is a illusion is by long wave infrared Dvorak enhancement and NHC enhancement show nothing of a eye.

But visible showed an eye.

But visible is only ONE form of imagery, it can also lie to us.

[Yellow Evan]

I meant by the eye is a illusion is by long wave infrared Dvorak enhancement and NHC enhancement show nothing of a eye.

But visible showed an eye.

But visible is only ONE form of imagery, it can also lie to us.

It's more likely IMO that the other kinds of imagery are deceiving us. It's probably a bit too cloud-covered to be noticed in IR imagery for instance.

[supercane4867]

I meant by the eye is a illusion is by long wave infrared Dvorak enhancement and NHC enhancement show nothing of a eye.

Which indicates it hasn't cleared out fully yet. That's all.

So the area where the eye has -67 C° temperatures?!?

Clearing out an eye is a gradual process, how do you expect an 20C eye to just suddenly pop out on satellite?

[Kingarabian]

21Z


Getting there.

One can see just how intense that eye wall is. Once it wraps completely....

15Z

Based on how it looked on microwave 6 hours ago, I would say RI is still going on.

[Yellow Evan]

Eye clearing out again after briefly going by by.

[Kingarabian]

[Cyclenall]

If we don't get an eye soon, I'm starting to question whether we are getting a Cat 5 or even a Cat 4.

Yeah the chances are starting to drop now for real, for that and EI. It was "suppose" (my opinion, not the forecast) to be a major hurricane by last midnight based on the trends in the previous 24 hours. Just in the last 8 hours, Marie failed to pop the eye twice during attempts to fully establish the inner core. The convection right at the center weakens briefly then another burst takes over like what is occurring now. The 2nd fail was at 20:00 UTC when the NW, SW octrant (quadrant for 8 sides) convection weakened quite a bit while on the E side new bursting started . Really pathetic for a storm with the kind of ceiling and potential it has. I never thought it had Rick, Linda, etc. potential though, not sure where the hype of that came from. Even its huge size and some wind shear is causing this.

That ain't a eye, the "eye" is a illusion.

Or it is currently.

What is it then?

It looked to me like faded convection next to a burst with the sun angled in such a way it appeared to be an eye. I see on visible the very faint eye but its not matching well with other products so I'll wait until its stable and not intermittent because Marie has been doing some weird stuff lately .

The GFDL isn't reliable. It's eye is fine now. Relax.

Once it starts to clear out, then it will be fine but right now I'm doubting.

Most of the above was written 2 hours ago and may no longer apply since the eye looks to be a bit better organized and stable (ready to pop finally?).



Look at how huge Marie is!

[Kingarabian]

If we don't get an eye soon, I'm starting to question whether we are getting a Cat 5 or even a Cat 4.

Yeah the chances are starting to drop now for real, for that and EI. It was "suppose" (my opinion, not the forecast) to be a major hurricane by last midnight based on the trends in the previous 24 hours. Just in the last 8 hours, Marie failed to pop the eye twice during attempts to fully establish the inner core. The convection right at the center weakens briefly then another burst takes over like what is occurring now. The 2nd fail was at 20:00 UTC when the NW, SW octrant (quadrant for 8 sides) convection weakened quite a bit while on the E side new bursting started . Really pathetic for a storm with the kind of ceiling and potential it has. I never thought it had Rick, Linda, etc. potential though, not sure where the hype of that came from. Even its huge size and some wind shear is causing this.

It looked to me like faded convection next to a burst with the sun angled in such a way it appeared to be an eye. I see on visible the very faint eye but its not matching well with other products so I'll wait until its stable and not intermittent because Marie has been doing some weird stuff lately .

The GFDL isn't reliable. It's eye is fine now. Relax.

Once it starts to clear out, then it will be fine but right now I'm doubting.

Most of the above was written 2 hours ago and may no longer apply since the eye looks to be a bit better organized and stable (ready to pop finally?).

[/img]

Look at how huge Marie is!

Yup. Massive.

This is why in the seasonal thread we were scared it would affect the south west coast states.

[Ntxw]

Still waiting for that eye to clear! Goodness it's agonizing the way she's taking her sweet time! Though it's usually rewarding with massive storms like these, they take time but once they do they deliver (higher end systems). The smaller storms are more fascinating when it comes to rapidly surprising us however. She's definitely large.

[Yellow Evan]

Which leads me to another thing. What's up with all the large systems as of late?

[Ntxw]

:uarrow: Which leads me to another thing. What's up with all the large systems as of late?

That's a good question I'd like to know as well. Is it because later in the season there is less dry air overall? Could that be it? Is there a seasonal climo trend on storm size? Or is it just random.