ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[dixiebreeze]

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/prelims/2004frances1.gif

Reminds me of Hurricane Frances track in '04. Remember her well, uprooted an big old oak in our back yard when she sliced across west central Fla as a TS. But she hit the east coast as a 'cane.

[tgenius]

track of 12z ukmet

Looks smack in my backyard How good has UKMET been lately compared to GFS or euro?

GFDL looks to be in the same vicinity from an image I saw (not sure if its recent) and if my memory doesn't fail it was the only one who predicted the Katrina dip towards Miami.

[northjaxpro]

track of 12z ukmet

I know our focus is on 96L, but I had to pause just a moment and give mention to the other notable feature on this UKMET run. Check out the well developed feature closing in on the Leeward Islands 84 hours out. If that verifies, we may have our next system brewing out there.

Back to 96L. Just wanted to mention.

[Jevo]

This is the 12z GFDL 126 hour Wind Swath for the person that asked



+114



+126 - End of Run

[tolakram]

Someone earlier wanted the HWRF graphic?

last frame, headed NE.

[gulf701]

Located on the Gulf Coast of the Florida Panhandle, the Eastern tracks were welcome, especially when they look to be a fish. Then some of the models began to shift west even if they were not the more reliable models and it appears that the western trend is a possibility and not just a one time occurrence. Without a COC, it appears that the models are reacting to the existing data and that the trough has taken the weaker path with a lessen impact on 96L. Got to feel for the experts when they are expected to make the track forecast when the controlling factors are so weak.

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[gatorcane]

Still not real consensus here but the GFDL model seems to be somewhere in between all of these. Most reliable models still east of Florida. Some models are into Florida still. The BAMD likes Tampa:

[meriland23]

IMO I'm thinking it will do one of three things. 1: hit SE FL 2: hit the outter banks 3: creep up the NE coast ...this is just a opinion tho.

[Jevo]

Still not real consensus here but the HWRF model seems to be somewhere in between all of these. Most reliable models still east of Florida. Some models are into Florida still. The BAMD likes Tampa:

The one thing they all agree on is a recurve...... Where oh where will it be is the question

[Bocadude85]

Still not real consensus here but the GFDL model seems to be somewhere in between all of these. Most reliable models still east of Florida. Some models are into Florida still. The BAMD likes Tampa:

It looks like the fork in the road for the models is 24 north and 75 west. 96L keeps chugging along so I think by tomorrow we will know which route will be taken.

[SFLcane]

ECM ensemble plenty over fl...

[northjaxpro]

The models are going to continue being quite divergent until we can get a center of circulation finally classified by Recon and initialized for the models. I can't recall when has been the last time it has taken this amout of time for Recon to close off a circulation for a system. This is day 3 now since this system was tagged an invest.

[Bocadude85]

ECM ensemble plenty over fl...

That's the most agreement we have seen from the Euro ensembles thus far...interesting.

[DESTRUCTION5]

Still not real consensus here but the GFDL model seems to be somewhere in between all of these. Most reliable models still east of Florida. Some models are into Florida still. The BAMD likes Tampa:

Patterns been 18z and 6z into FL and 00z and 12z E of FL..Somethings gotta give...If pattern continues 18z should be showing another landfall.

[gatorcane]

ECM ensemble plenty over fl...
http://i59.tinypic.com/2dv7dk5.jpg

That is very interesting, pretty good agreement here too. Wonder if the ECMWF operational may finally shift over for the 00Z run? It has been very reluctant and keeps showing recurve east of Florida.

[SFLcane]

12z ensemble mean for gfs...over florida

[gatorcane]

So we have the GFS and ECMWF ensembles starting to zero in on Florida, getting even more interesting!

[TheStormExpert]

So we have the GFS and ECMWF ensembles starting to zero in on Florida, getting even more interesting!

Never really understood these ensembles, what is their purpose and meaning?

[Blown Away]

So we have the GFS and ECMWF ensembles starting to zero in on Florida, getting even more interesting!

What keeps that TVCN consensus so constant with a recurve well off SFL?

[tolakram]

So we have the GFS and ECMWF ensembles starting to zero in on Florida, getting even more interesting!

Never really understood these ensembles, what is their purpose and meaning?

Multiple runs of the model with slightly different input parameters. Gives an idea of what will happen if something changes. If the ensembles are tightly clustered then model confidence is high, if they are spread out then there's a chance that if the upper air pattern changes, or some other parameter, the track could change significantly.