ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[TheStormExpert]

aircraft also found the pressure has risen by about 1 mb

Development today appears unlikely. Simply no organization Should become a TD or a TS tomorrow morning

Then yet again tomorrow development won't happen, starting to get kind of old with this invest.

[Hammy]

How long now has "tomorrow" been the point of formation? There is too much shear and now dry air entering into the western side of the "circulation", I don't see how this can develop at this point. Conditions are far worse than any of the models predicted so more than likely they're wrong on development as well.

[Evil Jeremy]

As far as I'm concerned, development is a matter of "when", not "if". The system is so close, and model support is too strong to think this is about to fall apart.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[OuterBanker]

I know there’s a lot of impatience around here. At least NOAA is getting a lot of experience flying into it. NOAA43 just took off for their first run. Obviously they are not writing it off yet.

[SFLcane]

In full view....

[Rail Dawg]

I smile because back in the day we had to wait for the polar satellite to pass over us so we could get just a few still images.

Now there is so much information it's just plain incredible.

And yet we STILL don't know for certain!

Chuck

[SeGaBob]

We've been saying tomorrow for the last couple of days now... also we've said within 12 hours a few times. Just last night the "center" was supposed to be closing off in a few hours. I feel development will happen but it may be longer than some want to wait...



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Airboy]

Looks like the recon found some west winds, lets see if it can be something

[baytownwx]

After looking at so many loops today, one could make the argument that the sustained convection south of Hispaniola could possibly work a low down to the surface (of course it will take a while to simmer). While the designated spot of 96L gets pulled north with the trough. Either way this system is a mess and will take awhile to get its act together.

[Weatherboy1]

Inflow from the south and southwest had been hindered by the mountains of hispanola for a while. My guess is now that the center is headig far enough west, that won't be a problem and it will draw more moisture in from that quadrant. That could help it pop!

[tropicwatch]

Recon finding west winds in the area of 21.51N 72.15W on more than one reading

[tolakram]

15 frame visible, look where recon found west winds.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=22&lon=-73&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1200&height=700&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=15

[WilmingtonSandbar]

One thing is for sure, it is definitely a drought buster for PR. I wonder how much of the yearly total they got back with this storm?

[alienstorm]

We now have a LLC south of Caicos, clearly seen on visible imagery
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

[Umbris]

One thing is for sure, it is definitely a drought buster for PR. I wonder how much of the yearly total they got back with this storm?

I have a lot of fam in PR who have been telling me the reservoirs have been filling back up.



It's a little but it's all helping end that drought. Hopefully this storm doesn't flood things over here in SoFla since we've had quite a bit of rain so far.

[Weatherboy1]

We now have a LLC south of Caicos, clearly seen on visible imagery
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

I think you're right! Finally a low level center in my opinion. Is it game on time? (Just my opinion as always!)

[cycloneye]

One thing is for sure, it is definitely a drought buster for PR. I wonder how much of the yearly total they got back with this storm?

It really has been a big drought buster as all the lakes are up and even some had to open gates to liberate water.And is not over here as heavy rains continue to fall with the tail of 96L.

http://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid= ... 11&loop=no

[Tyler Penland]

We now have a LLC south of Caicos, clearly seen on visible imagery
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/post-goes

Yep, I see it.
Look like it isn't aligned with the spin of the overall system, but that may just be my eyes playing tricks on me.

[NDG]

Yeap, I think that weak LLC found just south of the Turks & Caicos should be enough to start advisories in a couple of hours.

[TheStormExpert]

Kind of off topic, but there's over 50 pages for this thread, and nearly 80 pages for the models thread. This has to be some sort of record of pages set for only an Invest.