ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

[Bocadude85]

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That's a substantial southwest shift.

[tolakram]

Well west of previous run now, but weaker.

Previous 72h frame, for reference.



12Z 72h, which is for a later time

[SFLcane]

Ridge over head could drift w

edit...Nope head north

[southerngale]

Euro @ 96h - moving N

[tolakram]

96h

[TonyWeatherMan]

As I expected well weaker this run, ridge appears to continue to build. I suspect weaker than even the EURO is showing now as well.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[chaser1]

Already looks like a bunk run IMO. Do not think it will develop this fast. The timing of development will likely have a significant role in its future overall track I also think.

I respect your opinion and might even agree conceptually that continued development could impart a farther west motion. Where iI disagree is that you think it unreasonable for this system to deepen 1millibars over a 12 hour period? And, if there were even the slightest amount of further organization, you think it unreasonable to deepen a mere 2 millibars further - over the following 12 hours? A 3-MB fall in pressure within a vigorous tropical system, at the peak of the hurricane season over a 24 hours period... barely even qualifies as anything other than slight organization and intensification. Heck, 100 people on a cruise to Nassau could practically "fart", and cause a 1 mb drop in pressure

[SFLcane]

GFDL ensembles..

[floridasun78]

GFDL ensembles..

that look good for fl

[TonyWeatherMan]

Already looks like a bunk run IMO. Do not think it will develop this fast. The timing of development will likely have a significant role in its future overall track I also think.

I respect your opinion and might even agree conceptually that continued development could impart a farther west motion. Where iI disagree is that you think it unreasonable for this system to deepen 1millibars over a 12 hour period? And, if there were even the slightest amount of further organization, you think it unreasonable to deepen a mere 2 millibars further - over the following 12 hours? A 3-MB fall in pressure within a vigorous tropical system, at the peak of the hurricane season over a 24 hours period... barely even qualifies as anything other than slight organization and intensification. Heck, 100 people on a cruise to Nassau could practically "fart", and cause a 1 mb drop in pressure

Sure that's a fair point, but to answer that question i'd counter with after all this time why hasn't it deepened yet? Models have consistently shown deepening and it hasn't happened. I see nothing to suggest otherwise. No LLC has formed, convection doesn't qualify for an upgrade, and marginal conditions ahead of it. Let's face it we are struggling to find the C storm....it's August 23rd.


So in conclusion do I think it's possible? Absolutely.

[SFLcane]

12z UKMET through sfl..

[tolakram]

And escaping at 120h

[gatorcane]

12z UKMET through sfl..

Good grief thought it joined the recurve camp. Guess not.

[tolakram]

Sure that's a fair point, but to answer that question i'd counter with after all this time why hasn't it deepened yet? Models have consistently shown deepening and it hasn't happened. I see nothing to suggest otherwise. No LLC has formed, convection doesn't qualify for an upgrade, and marginal conditions ahead of it. Let's face it we are struggling to find the C storm....it's August 23rd.


So in conclusion do I think it's possible? Absolutely.

Hi Tony,

what models showed it deepening today? Also, please add the disclaimer if you are making a prediction. Thanks.

[DESTRUCTION5]

12z UKMET through sfl..

Good grief thought it joined the recurve camp. Guess not.

All but the Euro have trended west...we roll on to the next suite of modeling.

[Tyler Penland]

Zoomed in look at 12z GFS ensemble spread. Three very distinct camps.

[Bocadude85]

12z UKMET through sfl..

That's a huge west shift for the UKMET

[TheStormExpert]

12z UKMET through sfl..

Good grief thought it joined the recurve camp. Guess not.

All but the Euro have trended west...we roll on to the next suite of modeling.

The Euro trended slightly west.

[Bocadude85]

12z UKMET through sfl..

Good grief thought it joined the recurve camp. Guess not.

All but the Euro have trended west...we roll on to the next suite of modeling.

Actually the euro has shifted west some in the first 3-4 days

[TonyWeatherMan]

Sure that's a fair point, but to answer that question i'd counter with after all this time why hasn't it deepened yet? Models have consistently shown deepening and it hasn't happened. I see nothing to suggest otherwise. No LLC has formed, convection doesn't qualify for an upgrade, and marginal conditions ahead of it. Let's face it we are struggling to find the C storm....it's August 23rd.


So in conclusion do I think it's possible? Absolutely.

Hi Tony,

what models showed it deepening today? Also, please add the disclaimer if you are making a prediction. Thanks.

Go check back and see for yourself. Just about every reliable computer model running including the GFS of course had a deeper storm than we are currently seeing 36+ hours back where 96L is currently. It's not a prediction as much as it's a simple fact that the storm has continued to stay weak, despite model forecasts. My opinion based upon this being this has resulted in the gradual west shift of all the reliable global models. Even the EURO we just looked at has continued to shift ever so slightly west, while keeping the storm weak.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.