EPAC: MARIE - Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

Is anyone noticeing a dent in the middle of the CDO?

Yes. I really hope that is an eye.

[weathernerdguy]

[weathernerdguy]

Is anyone noticeing a dent in the middle of the CDO?

Yes. I really hope that is an eye.

I think it is a eye now...

[Yellow Evan]

When is the eye gonna appear? It's been hinting at one for hours.

[WeatherGuesser]

What's the land elevation there to the northeast?

Could that have any effect on slowing spin-up?

[Hurricane_Luis]

Is anyone noticeing a dent in the middle of the CDO?

Yep. Been there for a few hours now. Marie is definatly trying to form an eye.

[Yellow Evan]

What's the land elevation there to the northeast?

Could that have any effect on slowing spin-up?

Way too far northeast to have an affect IMO. This area gets so many hurricanes after all, and many Cat 4's and 5's have occurred closer to the coast.

[Yellow Evan]

Is anyone noticeing a dent in the middle of the CDO?

Yep. Been there for a few hours now. Marie is definatly trying to form an eye.

Yet, no eye has formed yet still.

[weathernerdguy]

Is anyone noticeing a dent in the middle of the CDO?

Yep. Been there for a few hours now. Marie is definatly trying to form an eye.

Yet, no eye has formed yet still.

the dent would be the eye.....

[Yellow Evan]

[
the dent would be the eye.....

Well, no true eye. It hasn't cleared out. And it's been 12 hours now.

[Yellow Evan]

It's doing a Celia 10 on us.

EP, 13, 2014082318, , BEST, 0, 149N, 1070W, 75, 983, HU, 34, NEQ, 100, 90, 80, 90, 1009, 240, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARIE, D,
EP, 13, 2014082318, , BEST, 0, 149N, 1070W, 75, 983, HU, 50, NEQ, 50, 40, 30, 40, 1009, 240, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARIE, D,
EP, 13, 2014082318, , BEST, 0, 149N, 1070W, 75, 983, HU, 64, NEQ, 30, 20, 10, 20, 1009, 240, 15, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, MARIE, D,

[Kingarabian]

It's problem was that it started off with extremely cold tops. For an eye to show, those clouds need to warm some.

Still see this topping off as a Category 5 at least. Unless some surprise shear gets in the way.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

It's problem was that it started off with extremely cold tops. For an eye to show, those clouds need to warm some.

Still see this topping off as a Category 5 at least. Unless some surprise shear gets in the way.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm not too worried about the warming cloud tops. I'm worried about the eye taking forever to clear out.

[Kingarabian]

It's problem was that it started off with extremely cold tops. For an eye to show, those clouds need to warm some.

Still see this topping off as a Category 5 at least. Unless some surprise shear gets in the way.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

I'm not too worried about the warming cloud tops. I'm worried about the eye taking forever to clear out.

Warm spot in between the CDO has been there for a while now. Wonder if it'll be pinhole esque?

[wxmann_91]

A lot of storms stairstep their way to beast mode status, going through a few rounds of RI, instead of EI'ing all way. It's okay.

The GFS shear forecast per the latest NHC discussion does honestly concern me though.

[wxmann_91]

Oh, and if you check the latest microwave it's clear that some dry air has wrapped around the circulation, again not surprisingly given how large Marie is. More likely than not intensification will be gradual from here on out.

[cycloneye]

If is gradual then time will run out to be a cat 3-4.

[Yellow Evan]

A lot of storms stairstep their way to beast mode status, going through a few rounds of RI, instead of EI'ing all way. It's okay.

The GFS shear forecast per the latest NHC discussion does honestly concern me though.

It's been not initializing correctly more often than not the whole way through. It's not something new.

[Yellow Evan]

Oh, and if you check the latest microwave it's clear that some dry air has wrapped around the circulation, again not surprisingly given how large Marie is. More likely than not intensification will be gradual from here on out.

Maybe. But I've seen systems bomb out despite near-dry air. It happens sometimes in the EPAC.

[supercane4867]

EYE?



I just can't think a reason for it not to continue rapidly intensify other than possible structure issue that is not really caused by either shear or dry air