ATL: CRISTOBAL - Models

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davidiowx
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1501 Postby davidiowx » Sat Aug 23, 2014 12:36 pm

Senobia wrote:
stormlover2013 wrote:I think it's very likely to go in gom, it's either going to gom or a fish, no way that goes north with high pressure like that


I realize you live in SETX, but there has been nothing - not a thing - in these models that I've seen to suggest the GOM on any run. You keep referencing that in every post you make with no data to back up the suggestion. If you have some, please post it because the rest of us down here would appreciate seeing what you seem to 'know'.


It isn't very wise to believe a model before the storm has even formed either. This thing could end up in the GOM. It appears unlikely at the moment, but that doesn't mean you can't wake up tomorrow morning with models having this brush SFL and be in the GOM. As far a proof, what do you need to prove it absolutely won't happen?

I don't trust any of the model runs right now. But there is clearly a wide range. If I recall yesterday, there was hardly a chance this was going to get to Florida. Look at today.

Image
Last edited by davidiowx on Sat Aug 23, 2014 12:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1502 Postby WilmingtonSandbar » Sat Aug 23, 2014 12:36 pm

stormlover2013 wrote:I think it's very likely to go in gom, it's either going to gom or a fish, no way that goes north with high pressure like that



Are you a Pro-Met?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1503 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 23, 2014 12:40 pm

Let's stick to model discussions please.
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#1504 Postby gatorcane » Sat Aug 23, 2014 12:41 pm

12Z GFS Ensembles a bit of a shift east now over Northern Bahamas:

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1505 Postby stormlover2013 » Sat Aug 23, 2014 12:42 pm

No I am not but I have seen models time again mess up saying the trough is strong and it picks it up but it doesn't happen bec models don't do troughs real well
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Re:

#1506 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sat Aug 23, 2014 12:42 pm

gatorcane wrote:12Z GFS Ensembles a bit of a shift east now over Northern Bahamas:

Image



Majority still between KW and Grand Bahama..
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1507 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 23, 2014 12:43 pm

12z Euro initialized

Image
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1508 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 23, 2014 12:52 pm

24h

Image
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#1509 Postby TonyWeatherMan » Sat Aug 23, 2014 12:56 pm

Already looks like a bunk run IMO. Do not think it will develop this fast. The timing of development will likely have a significant role in its future overall track I also think.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1510 Postby SouthFLTropics » Sat Aug 23, 2014 12:59 pm

Can someone post the rest of the HWRF run?
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1511 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 23, 2014 1:00 pm

48h

Image

I'm not seeing any rapid development from this run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1512 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sat Aug 23, 2014 1:02 pm

tolakram wrote:48h

Image

I'm not seeing any rapid development from this run.


Looks stationary there for 24 hrs virtually...
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#1513 Postby TonyWeatherMan » Sat Aug 23, 2014 1:03 pm

Definitely not rapid, allow me to clarify. I do not see this even becoming named until about the 48hr timeframe. Most models disagree, I have absolutely no sound Meteorological background to cite my reasoning. I merely feel this way due to the convective structure and marginal conditions ahead of the storm.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1514 Postby Bocadude85 » Sat Aug 23, 2014 1:03 pm

tolakram wrote:48h

[img]f[/img]

I'm not seeing any rapid development from this run.



This run is west of the 0z run by a bit. The 0z run had this east of the Central Bahamas
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1515 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 23, 2014 1:05 pm

Bocadude85 wrote:
tolakram wrote:48h

[img]f[/img]

I'm not seeing any rapid development from this run.



This run is west of the 0z run by a bit. The 0z run had this east of the Central Bahamas


72h will either show a sharp right turn or it will be well west of the 0z run.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1516 Postby SFLcane » Sat Aug 23, 2014 1:05 pm

Indeed that's west of 00z
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#1517 Postby TonyWeatherMan » Sat Aug 23, 2014 1:06 pm

It's going to be very, very close. Ridge looks like it's already building back in. It also appears to be quite strong.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1518 Postby SFLcane » Sat Aug 23, 2014 1:07 pm

GFDL has also trended W towards FL.
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Re: ATL: INVEST 96L - Models

#1519 Postby tolakram » Sat Aug 23, 2014 1:08 pm

Image
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#1520 Postby DESTRUCTION5 » Sat Aug 23, 2014 1:10 pm

^^ 2 Day stall...Thats looking like a given now.. Both the GFS and EURO agree on at least 48hrs of no progression
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