ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

I think the plane missed the LLC just south. See the wind shifts?

[WeatherEmperor]

I think the plane missed the LLC just south. See the wind shifts?

Is it gonna turn back to check it out?

Sent from my HTC EVO 4G LTE

[TheAustinMan]

I think the plane missed the LLC just south. See the wind shifts?

(Image redacted)

Plane was descending from about 12,000 ft to around 2,000 ft during that time so I wouldn't put too much weight in that.

[tolakram]

I think the plane missed the LLC just south. See the wind shifts?

(Image redacted)

Plane was descending from about 12,000 ft to around 2,000 ft during that time so I wouldn't put too much weight in that.

Ah, did not notice that, thanks.

[SouthDadeFish]

Still no hints of a well defined circulation yet according to recon.

[tolakram]

30 frame live loop, zoomed out. Speed up to to get the full effect. You can see the NW motion continuing and maybe kind of organizing, but not rapidly. IMO

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=21&lon=-72&info=vis&zoom=2&width=1200&height=700&quality=95&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=30

[Alyono]

sharper wave axis, but no center it appears

[gatorcane]

No center yet but seems like only a matter of time at this point. Saved image:

[emeraldislenc]

So what are 'y'all saying??

[Alyono]

also, I am not seeing any TS winds any longer. Makes sense since this has slowed down

[tolakram]

So what are 'y'all saying??

I'm just observing, not making any important conclusions. Most models show slow organization for the next 24 hours or so, so nothing unusual happening IMO.

[SouthDadeFish]

I'm seeing some low-level clouds move out of the SW. After seeing what recon is finding, they must be just above the level recon is flying.

[SouthDadeFish]

If there is a LLC developing I would put it around 21N 72W.

[Alyono]

here is something else to consider as I said earlier... even if there is a circulation, it probably does not meet the convective requirement at the moment for the upgrade. Same as 2 days ago when there was a circulation, but no convective organization

[gatorcane]

Saved WV loop, look to straight to the north of this invest at the top of the image. You see where the clouds are moving WSW on the left and to the ENE on the right. That is where the ridge is essentially meeting the trough. Boy it's going to be close if it stays under the ridge or heads NE with the trough!

[baytownwx]

looks to me the ridge is going to be the winner, but again very close call!

[TYNI]

:uarrow: looks to me the ridge is going to be the winner, but again very close call!

Appears that way to me as well. Another 2 hours of WV data in this loop will tell the story. Gatorcane, great observation!

[SouthDadeFish]

The trough is still digging in and will be doing so for the next 24-48 hours.

[Alyono]

aircraft also found the pressure has risen by about 1 mb

Development today appears unlikely. Simply no organization Should become a TD or a TS tomorrow morning

[floridasun78]

i got feeling this may never be ts the way going ((Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS product))