EPAC: MARIE - Post-Tropical

[tolakram]

If we don't get an eye soon, I'm starting to question whether we are getting a Cat 5 or even a Cat 4.

I'd go the other way. Some of these really strong and rapidly intensifying storms are chaotic until the intensification phase abates and then the eye clears quickly.

[Ptarmigan]

Yup as always with every EPAC hurricane, peak intensity will be short lived...

Cold waters, shear, or dry air is always the culprit...

Relatively small basin that's why...

Despite its size, it is one of the most active basins in the world.

[euro6208]

Looking at AVN loops, dark grey tops have significantly weakened. A sign of stalled or weakening?

[Yellow Evan]

Looking at AVN loops, dark grey tops have significantly weakened. A sign of stalled or weakening?

End of D-MAX?

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Looking at AVN loops, dark grey tops have significantly weakened. A sign of stalled or weakening?

It may mean that an eye is developing.

[Ptarmigan]

Linda was one of the only two hurricanes to reach T8.0 on objective Dvorak analysis which topped the scale, another one was Gilbert in the Atlantic side

If I recall, Wilma at its peak on Dvorak was equivalent to a Category 3 due to its pinhole eye. Dvorak does not do pinhole eyes well. It was the same issue with Hurricane Hugo and the Hurricane Hunters nearly got killed.

[Yellow Evan]

Yup as always with every EPAC hurricane, peak intensity will be short lived...

Cold waters, shear, or dry air is always the culprit...

Relatively small basin that's why...

Yea. Anything north of 18N or south of 11N tend to run into problems some way or another. However, the 11N-18N area is usually quite favorable.

[Yellow Evan]

Linda was one of the only two hurricanes to reach T8.0 on objective Dvorak analysis which topped the scale, another one was Gilbert in the Atlantic side

If I recall, Wilma at its peak on Dvorak was equivalent to a Category 3 due to its pinhole eye. Dvorak does not do pinhole eyes well. It was the same issue with Hurricane Hugo and the Hurricane Hunters nearly got killed.

No, that's why Carlos 09 was never higher than 90 knts. It was so small and had a pinhole eye.

[euro6208]

[Yellow Evan]

Still no major signs of an eye.

[Yellow Evan]

Here's Rick 09 as a Cat 1/2 for comparisons sake.



And here is Linda 97 at the same time.



Here's Kiko 83 right before it developed an eye. Was probs a Cat 1, even though the EPHC had it as 45 knt TS.

[supercane4867]

Still waiting on a full microwave pass over the center to see what's really going on in the mid to low levels.....

[Yellow Evan]

Still waiting on a full microwave pass over the center to see what's really going on in the mid to low levels.....

Agreed. There could be an eye about to appear or no eye at all.

[euro6208]

Latest GFS has this down to 943 mb followed by quick weakening...

[Yellow Evan]

Latest vis (for some reason when I upload, I get the 1530z one) not the 16z one which I think it's starting to show an eye.

[euro6208]

Not impressed with it at all...Convection has steadily decreased...and looks a bit ragged now...

[Yellow Evan]

Not impressed with it at all...Convection has steadily decreased...and looks a bit ragged now...

On IR, it's not looking great. Convection has diminished on the south side. But again, maybe it's trying to develop an eye.

[euro6208]

Latest in 2nd picture has a remarkable decrease in OHC...I'm thinking only a Major hurricane now Category 3...



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Yellow Evan]

Cristina was smaller, but didn't have super high OHC. I always think OHC is overrated.

But anyhow, I have no idea how strong till will end up right now. I'm growing impatient.

[weathernerdguy]

Is anyone noticeing a dent in the middle of the CDO?